Cagliari
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Lazio were the stronger side on L90 Strength (51 vs 29). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Cagliari. Cagliari had 5 days of rest, Lazio 7.1 and had to travel 412 km.
Away travel412 kmRest days5 · 7.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Cagliari32%
Draw29%
Lazio39%
Cagliari30%
Draw27%
Lazio43%
Cagliari31%
Draw29%
Lazio40%
Cagliari26%
Draw28%
Lazio46%
Cagliari33%
Draw27%
Lazio40%
Over 2.5 43%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Cagliari)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyAntonio Rapuano
- Cards per match 4.8
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 55
Team strength
Cagliari
Lazio
29
L90 StrengthIn forecast
51
33
Current StrengthIn forecast
62
31
AttackIn forecast
53
31
DefenceIn forecast
63
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLazio
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
CagliariLazio
1.12
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.04
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.89
xGVia Att/Def
0.99
1.43
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.32
+0.23
Goals minus xGContext
+0.05
64%
Scored inContext
52%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
44%
9.88
ShotsContext
11.04
3.61
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.04
34%
On target shareContext
35%
6.26
Shots in the boxContext
6.75
59%
Box shareContext
58%
11%
ConversionContext
9%
2.18
OffsidesContext
1.46
13.16
Shots allowedContext
13.44
4.92
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.28
3.96
BlocksContext
3.60
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.32
72%
Save rateContext
78%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
384
PassesContext
469
312
Accurate passesContext
401
81%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.86
14.64
FoulsContext
10.24
14.52
Fouls sufferedContext
15.44
2.32
Yellow cardsContext
2.04
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.16
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
0.95
xGVia Att/Def
0.93
1.43
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.28
+0.35
Goals minus xGContext
-0.03
60%
Scored inContext
50%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.40
ShotsContext
10.70
3.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.44
31%
On target shareContext
29%
6.22
Shots in the boxContext
6.33
57%
Box shareContext
56%
13%
ConversionContext
8%
1.50
OffsidesContext
1.67
13.60
Shots allowedContext
13.70
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
4.20
BlocksContext
4.50
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
69%
Save rateContext
65%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
417
PassesContext
474
343
Accurate passesContext
407
82%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.79
14.00
FoulsContext
9.70
14.20
Fouls sufferedContext
13.60
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Cagliari
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km824 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Lazio
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel412 km1,051 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Cagliari |
Lazio |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5Serie A 2025-2026, 16 Feb | 7.1Serie A 2025-2026, 14 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 412 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 824 km | 1,051 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 7.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Cagliari
Confirmed XI
1E. Caprile(G)
33A. Obert
22A. Dossena
26Y. Mina
32Zé Pedro
25I. Sulemana
4L. Mazzitelli
8M. Adopo
2M. Palestra
94S. Esposito
9S. Kılıçsoy
Lazio
Confirmed XI
94I. Provedel(G)
3L. Pellegrini
25Oliver Provstgaard
13A. Romagnoli
77A. Marušić
24K. Taylor
6N. Rovella
21R. Belahyane
10M. Zaccagni
27D. Maldini
18G. Isaksen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Cagliari
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Lazio
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Cagliari+0.8 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Lazio-0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Cagliari · Home
1.25points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-3-5
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.25
Lazio · Away
1.17points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-5-4
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 0.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Cagliari | Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| Lecce | L 0–2 HW 2–1 A | D 0–0 AW 2–0 H |
| AS Roma | L 0–2 AW 1–0 H | L 0–1 H |
| Verona | W 4–0 HD 2–2 A | W 1–0 AW 4–0 H |
| Fiorentina | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H | D 2–2 H |
| Juventus | W 1–0 HL 1–2 A | D 2–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Genoa | L 0–3 AD 3–3 H | W 3–2 HW 3–0 A |
| Cremonese | D 2–2 A | D 0–0 H |
| AC Milan | L 0–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Torino | W 2–1 A | D 3–3 H |
| Pisa | D 2–2 H | D 0–0 A |
| Atalanta | L 1–2 A | L 0–2 HD 0–0 A |
| Como | D 0–0 A | L 0–3 HL 0–2 A |
| Sassuolo | L 1–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| Bologna | L 0–2 H | D 1–1 H |
| Udinese | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Inter | L 0–2 H | L 0–2 A |
| Parma | W 2–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Napoli | L 0–1 A | L 0–2 H |
| Points | 28 of 72 · 1.17 per game | 30 of 72 · 1.25 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
0 Cagliari wins1 draws6 Lazio wins
Goals per game0.71 – 2.14
Over 2.571%
Both scored57%
Clean sheets0% · 43%
- 3 Nov 2025Lazio2–0Cagliari
- 3 Feb 2025Cagliari1–2Lazio
- 4 Nov 2024Lazio2–1Cagliari
- 10 Feb 2024Cagliari1–3Lazio
- 2 Dec 2023Lazio1–0Cagliari
- 5 Mar 2022Cagliari0–3Lazio
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Cagliari | Lazio | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.12 | 1.04 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.52 | 2.04 | 2.40 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 48% | 28% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 24% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 44% | |
| Failed to score | 36% | 48% | |
| Games | 25 | 25 |
| Cagliari | Lazio | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 2.30 | 2.40 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Cagliari | Lazio | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.74 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 3.73 | |
| Match total | 8.74 | 7.73 | 8.77 |
| Over 8.5 | 52% 12/23 | 45% 10/22 | |
| Over 9.5 | 26% 6/23 | 27% 6/22 | |
| Over 10.5 | 17% 4/23 | 9% 2/22 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.32 | 2.28 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.88 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 5.08 | 3.97 |
| Over 3.5 | 64% 16/25 | 72% 18/25 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 10/25 | 64% 16/25 | |
| Cagliari | Lazio | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.40 | 3.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 3.89 | |
| Match total | 9.40 | 7.45 | 8.77 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 5.60 | 3.97 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Antonio Rapuano Italy · 55 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.47league 3.79
Red cards0.33league 0.19
Cards 5+47%league 37%
Fouls25.5league 25.4
Penalties0.27league 0.32
Home wins51%league 37%
Cagliari3 with this referee
Record2-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.7
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W7 Apr 24H · Atalanta2–13
- W3 Mar 24A · Empoli1–01
- L24 Oct 21A · Fiorentina0–32
Lazio6 with this referee
Record4-0-2
Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L26 Jan 25H · Fiorentina1–21
- W24 Nov 24H · Bologna3–03
- W16 Mar 24A · Frosinone3–23
- L6 May 23A · AC Milan0–24
- W2 Apr 22H · Sassuolo2–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Cagliari25 games · scored 28 · conceded 35
5
0-15
2
6
16-30
8
4
31-45
4
4
46-60
6
7
61-75
8
9
76-90
Lazio25 games · scored 26 · conceded 25
4
3
0-15
3
2
16-30
4
4
31-45
3
6
46-60
3
6
61-75
9
4
76-90
Cagliari10 games · scored 13 · conceded 14
2
0-15
3
16-30
4
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
4
61-75
3
3
76-90
Lazio10 games · scored 9 · conceded 14
2
0-15
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
3
4
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
