Cagliari
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Napoli were slight favourites.
Napoli were the stronger side on L90 Strength (70 vs 26). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Cagliari. Cagliari had 5.1 days of rest, Napoli 6 and had to travel 474 km.
Away travel474 kmRest days5.1 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 2
Cagliari22%
Draw27%
Napoli50%
Cagliari19%
Draw24%
Napoli57%
Cagliari21%
Draw27%
Napoli52%
Cagliari17%
Draw25%
Napoli57%
Cagliari23%
Draw26%
Napoli51%
Over 2.5 43%
Both score 47%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Cagliari)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyMaurizio Mariani
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 105
Team strength
Cagliari
Napoli
26
L90 StrengthIn forecast
70
33
Current StrengthIn forecast
61
31
AttackIn forecast
61
31
DefenceIn forecast
70
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNapoli
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
CagliariNapoli
1.07
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.55
1.41
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.03
0.86
xGVia Att/Def
1.30
1.40
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.99
+0.21
Goals minus xGContext
+0.25
66%
Scored inContext
79%
21%
Clean sheetsContext
31%
9.97
ShotsContext
12.55
3.59
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.93
34%
On target shareContext
38%
6.26
Shots in the boxContext
8.03
59%
Box shareContext
63%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
2.33
OffsidesContext
1.58
12.83
Shots allowedContext
10.66
4.79
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.07
3.93
BlocksContext
3.14
3.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.20
72%
Save rateContext
67%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
392
PassesContext
533
320
Accurate passesContext
460
82%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.87
14.45
FoulsContext
11.79
14.59
Fouls sufferedContext
12.76
2.41
Yellow cardsContext
1.38
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
0.80
xGVia Att/Def
1.20
1.26
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.11
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
+0.50
60%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
9.60
ShotsContext
12.30
3.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
32%
On target shareContext
41%
6.11
Shots in the boxContext
7.70
60%
Box shareContext
61%
10%
ConversionContext
14%
2.43
OffsidesContext
1.38
12.30
Shots allowedContext
10.10
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
4.20
BlocksContext
2.40
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.44
68%
Save rateContext
58%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
420
PassesContext
554
347
Accurate passesContext
482
83%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.86
14.40
FoulsContext
12.70
14.40
Fouls sufferedContext
12.80
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Cagliari
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,019 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Napoli
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel474 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Cagliari |
Napoli |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.1Serie A 2025-2026, 15 Mar | 6Serie A 2025-2026, 14 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 474 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,019 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14.8 | 17.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Cagliari
Confirmed XI
1E. Caprile(G)
22A. Dossena
26Y. Mina
32Zé Pedro
15J. Rodríguez
25I. Sulemana
10G. Gaetano
8M. Adopo
2M. Palestra
90M. Folorunsho
94S. Esposito
Napoli
Confirmed XI
32V. Milinković-Savić(G)
17M. Olivera
4A. Buongiorno
31S. Beukema
3Miguel Gutiérrez
68S. Lobotka
6B. Gilmour
21M. Politano
8S. McTominay
11K. De Bruyne
19R. Højlund
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Cagliari
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Napoli
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Cagliari+1.2 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Napoli-1.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Cagliari · Home
1.14points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-4-6
- Scored
- 1.14
- Conceded
- 1.21
Napoli · Away
1.67points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 8-1-6
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.13
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Cagliari | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| Pisa | L 1–3 AD 2–2 H | W 3–2 H |
| Como | L 1–2 HD 0–0 A | D 0–0 H |
| Parma | D 1–1 AW 2–0 H | D 0–0 H |
| Lazio | D 0–0 HL 0–2 A | W 2–0 A |
| Lecce | L 0–2 HW 2–1 A | W 2–1 HW 1–0 A |
| AS Roma | L 0–2 AW 1–0 H | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A |
| Verona | W 4–0 HD 2–2 A | W 2–1 AD 2–2 H |
| Fiorentina | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H | W 2–1 HW 3–1 A |
| Juventus | W 1–0 HL 1–2 A | L 0–3 AW 2–1 H |
| Genoa | L 0–3 AD 3–3 H | W 3–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Cremonese | D 2–2 A | W 2–0 A |
| AC Milan | L 0–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| Torino | W 2–1 A | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Atalanta | L 1–2 A | L 1–2 AW 3–1 H |
| Sassuolo | L 1–2 H | W 1–0 HW 2–0 A |
| Bologna | L 0–2 H | L 0–2 A |
| Udinese | D 1–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Inter | L 0–2 H | D 2–2 AW 3–1 H |
| Points | 30 of 84 · 1.07 per game | 56 of 84 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
0 Cagliari wins2 draws5 Napoli wins
Goals per game0.43 – 1.86
Over 2.529%
Both scored43%
Clean sheets0% · 57%
- 30 Aug 2025Napoli1–0Cagliari
- 23 May 2025Napoli2–0Cagliari
- 15 Sep 2024Cagliari0–4Napoli
- 25 Feb 2024Cagliari1–1Napoli
- 16 Dec 2023Napoli2–1Cagliari
- 21 Feb 2022Cagliari1–1Napoli
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Cagliari | Napoli | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.07 | 1.55 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.41 | 1.03 | |
| Match goals | 2.48 | 2.59 | 2.40 |
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 72% | |
| Over 2.5 | 48% | 59% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 21% | 28% | |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 55% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 21% | 31% | |
| Failed to score | 34% | 21% | |
| Games | 29 | 29 |
| Cagliari | Napoli | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.80 | 2.40 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 80% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Cagliari | Napoli | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.67 | 4.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.78 | 3.07 | |
| Match total | 8.45 | 7.85 | 8.74 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 12/27 | 30% 8/27 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 6/27 | 22% 6/27 | |
| Over 10.5 | 15% 4/27 | 22% 6/27 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.48 | 1.48 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.86 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.34 | 3.48 | 3.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 69% 20/29 | 38% 11/29 | |
| Over 4.5 | 45% 13/29 | 17% 5/29 | |
| Cagliari | Napoli | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.30 | 4.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.30 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 8.60 | 7.90 | 8.74 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 3.60 | 3.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Maurizio Mariani Italy · 105 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.90league 3.74
Red cards0.20league 0.19
Cards 5+38%league 36%
Fouls23.9league 25.2
Penalties0.25league 0.30
Home wins46%league 40%
Cagliari3 with this referee
Record2-1-0
Cards · opp.1.3 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W29 Nov 24H · Verona1–01
- D18 Feb 24A · Udinese1–12
- W11 Dec 23H · Sassuolo2–11
Napoli14 with this referee
Record8-2-4
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.4
Pens for · against2 · 3
Reds1
- L25 Jan 26A · Juventus0–32
- W28 Dec 25A · Cremonese2–02
- W25 Oct 25H · Inter3–12
- W27 Apr 25H · Torino2–00
- D16 Mar 25A · Venezia0–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Cagliari29 games · scored 31 · conceded 41
7
0-15
2
6
16-30
8
4
31-45
5
6
46-60
8
7
61-75
8
11
76-90
Napoli29 games · scored 45 · conceded 30
9
5
0-15
6
3
16-30
8
3
31-45
8
7
46-60
6
6
61-75
8
6
76-90
Cagliari10 games · scored 10 · conceded 14
3
0-15
1
16-30
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
4
61-75
2
4
76-90
Napoli10 games · scored 17 · conceded 17
3
3
0-15
3
2
16-30
4
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
5
61-75
3
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
