Cagliari
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Cagliari were slight favourites.
Cagliari were the stronger side on L90 Strength (27 vs 16). Cagliari had 7.7 days of rest, Pisa 8.7 and had to travel 509 km.
Away travel509 kmRest days7.7 · 8.7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Cagliari52%
Draw27%
Pisa22%
Cagliari54%
Draw25%
Pisa21%
Cagliari52%
Draw27%
Pisa21%
Cagliari45%
Draw28%
Pisa27%
Cagliari54%
Draw25%
Pisa22%
Over 2.5 45%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Cagliari)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyFrancesco Fourneau
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 40
Team strength
Cagliari
Pisa
27
L90 StrengthIn forecast
16
33
Current StrengthIn forecast
12
31
AttackIn forecast
15
31
DefenceIn forecast
21
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisPisa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
CagliariPisa
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.67
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.33
0.85
xGVia Att/Def
0.95
1.43
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.38
+0.15
Goals minus xGContext
-0.28
67%
Scored inContext
40%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
27%
9.53
ShotsContext
9.60
3.64
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.83
36%
On target shareContext
24%
6.29
Shots in the boxContext
7.42
61%
Box shareContext
67%
11%
ConversionContext
7%
2.55
OffsidesContext
1.75
12.87
Shots allowedContext
15.73
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
3.77
BlocksContext
4.64
3.93
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.07
74%
Save rateContext
70%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
363
PassesContext
316
292
Accurate passesContext
244
80%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.75
15.07
FoulsContext
12.40
14.73
Fouls sufferedContext
12.33
2.53
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.13
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
0.77
xGVia Att/Def
0.91
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.51
+0.23
Goals minus xGContext
-0.21
70%
Scored inContext
40%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
8.60
ShotsContext
8.80
3.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.86
38%
On target shareContext
23%
5.44
Shots in the boxContext
7.29
57%
Box shareContext
69%
12%
ConversionContext
8%
3.33
OffsidesContext
1.88
12.30
Shots allowedContext
16.00
5.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
3.44
BlocksContext
4.44
3.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
69%
Save rateContext
68%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
369
PassesContext
327
294
Accurate passesContext
253
80%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.75
15.30
FoulsContext
11.80
14.90
Fouls sufferedContext
12.70
2.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Cagliari
Rest7.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,441 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Pisa
Rest8.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel509 km1,483 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Cagliari |
Pisa |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.7Serie A 2025-2026, 13 Dec | 8.7Serie A 2025-2026, 12 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 509 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,441 km | 1,483 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 6.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Cagliari
Confirmed XI
1E. Caprile(G)
33A. Obert
15J. Rodríguez
26Y. Mina
2M. Palestra
90M. Folorunsho
14A. Deiola
8M. Adopo
94S. Esposito
10G. Gaetano
9S. Kılıçsoy
Pisa
Confirmed XI
1A. Šemper(G)
94G. Bonfanti
4A. Caracciolo
5S. Canestrelli
3S. Angori
8M. Højholt
20M. Aebischer
36G. Piccinini
15I. Touré
10M. Tramoni
9H. Meister
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Cagliari
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Pisa
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Cagliari-0.5 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Pisa+0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Cagliari · Home
1.14points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-3
- Scored
- 1.14
- Conceded
- 1.43
Pisa · Away
0.57points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-4-3
- Scored
- 1.29
- Conceded
- 2.14
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 12 this season
| Opponent | Cagliari | Pisa |
|---|---|---|
| Atalanta | L 1–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| AS Roma | W 1–0 H | L 0–1 H |
| Lazio | L 0–2 A | D 0–0 H |
| Sassuolo | L 1–2 H | D 2–2 A |
| Verona | D 2–2 A | D 0–0 H |
| Bologna | L 0–2 H | L 0–4 A |
| Udinese | D 1–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| Inter | L 0–2 H | L 0–2 H |
| Lecce | W 2–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Parma | W 2–0 H | L 0–1 H |
| Napoli | L 0–1 A | L 2–3 A |
| Fiorentina | D 1–1 H | D 0–0 H |
| Points | 12 of 36 · 1.00 per game | 5 of 36 · 0.42 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Cagliari | Pisa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.00 | 2.47 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 47% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 33% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 13% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 33% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 27% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 60% | |
| Games | 15 | 15 |
| Cagliari | Pisa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.10 | 2.47 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 40% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 60% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Cagliari | Pisa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 3.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.23 | 5.86 | |
| Match total | 8.23 | 8.86 | 8.81 |
| Over 8.5 | 54% 7/13 | 50% 7/14 | |
| Over 9.5 | 23% 3/13 | 43% 6/14 | |
| Over 10.5 | 15% 2/13 | 29% 4/14 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.53 | 1.93 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.67 | |
| Match total | 4.53 | 3.60 | 4.03 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 10/15 | 53% 8/15 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 6/15 | 27% 4/15 | |
| Cagliari | Pisa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.78 | 2.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.44 | 5.33 | |
| Match total | 8.22 | 7.77 | 8.81 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 4.10 | 4.03 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Francesco Fourneau Italy · 40 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.50league 3.90
Red cards0.13league 0.16
Cards 5+58%league 39%
Fouls26.0league 25.9
Penalties0.30league 0.31
Home wins45%league 40%
Cagliari9 with this referee
Record4-3-2
Cards · opp.2.1 · 1.7
Pens for · against1 · 2
- W13 Sep 25H · Parma2–03
- L10 May 25A · Como1–33
- W30 Mar 25H · Monza3–02
- D11 Jan 25A · AC Milan1–12
- L29 Oct 24H · Bologna0–22
PisaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Cagliari15 games · scored 15 · conceded 21
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
4
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
3
61-75
5
6
76-90
Pisa15 games · scored 10 · conceded 20
2
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
6
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
3
61-75
3
4
76-90
Cagliari10 games · scored 10 · conceded 16
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
Pisa10 games · scored 7 · conceded 14
2
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
5
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
