Cagliari
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Cagliari were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Cagliari had 4.1 days of rest, Sassuolo 4.1 and had to travel 621 km.
Away travel621 kmRest days4.1 · 4.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Cagliari46%
Draw28%
Sassuolo26%
Cagliari47%
Draw26%
Sassuolo26%
Cagliari46%
Draw28%
Sassuolo26%
Cagliari39%
Draw29%
Sassuolo32%
Cagliari48%
Draw26%
Sassuolo26%
Over 2.5 44%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Cagliari)
No weather data yet
RefereeLuca Pairetto
- Cards per match 4.7
- Penalties per match 0.39
- Matches 61
Team strength
Cagliari
Sassuolo
28
L90 StrengthIn forecast
23
33
Current StrengthIn forecast
32
31
AttackIn forecast
41
31
DefenceIn forecast
32
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSassuolo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
CagliariSassuolo
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.25
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.13
0.81
xGVia Att/Def
0.99
1.62
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.37
+0.19
Goals minus xGContext
+0.01
63%
Scored inContext
63%
13%
Clean sheetsContext
38%
9.38
ShotsContext
9.50
3.71
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.38
35%
On target shareContext
36%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
60%
Box shareContext
62%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
2.29
OffsidesContext
2.00
14.13
Shots allowedContext
13.75
4.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.25
4.57
BlocksContext
3.13
4.29
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.25
81%
Save rateContext
81%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
370
PassesContext
366
299
Accurate passesContext
296
81%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.74
13.00
FoulsContext
12.63
13.88
Fouls sufferedContext
15.13
2.25
Yellow cardsContext
2.63
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
0.81
xGVia Att/Def
0.99
1.62
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.37
+0.29
Goals minus xGContext
-0.09
60%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
9.80
ShotsContext
9.10
3.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.33
33%
On target shareContext
33%
6.30
Shots in the boxContext
5.70
60%
Box shareContext
62%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
2.11
OffsidesContext
1.86
14.10
Shots allowedContext
13.10
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
4.67
BlocksContext
3.20
3.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
80%
Save rateContext
78%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
361
PassesContext
356
290
Accurate passesContext
285
80%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.75
12.50
FoulsContext
12.60
13.40
Fouls sufferedContext
14.50
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Cagliari
Rest4.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,414 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Sassuolo
Rest4.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel621 km1,567 km in 14d
Schedule load11%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Cagliari |
Sassuolo |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 11 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.1Serie A 2025-2026, 26 Oct | 4.1Serie A 2025-2026, 26 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 621 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,414 km | 1,567 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.1 | 4 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Cagliari
Confirmed XI
1E. Caprile(G)
33A. Obert
32Zé Pedro
28G. Zappa
3Riyad Idrissi
90M. Folorunsho
16M. Prati
8M. Adopo
2M. Palestra
94S. Esposito
29G. Borrelli
Sassuolo
Confirmed XI
49A. Murić(G)
25W. Coulibaly
5F. Candé
21J. Idzes
6S. Walukiewicz
90I. Koné
18N. Matić
42K. Thorstvedt
45A. Laurienté
99A. Pinamonti
7C. Volpato
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Cagliari
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Sassuolo
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Cagliari+0.6 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Sassuolo-0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Cagliari · Home
1.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-2
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 1.25
Sassuolo · Away
1.00points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | Cagliari | Sassuolo |
|---|---|---|
| Verona | D 2–2 A | W 1–0 A |
| Udinese | D 1–1 A | W 3–1 H |
| Inter | L 0–2 H | L 1–2 A |
| Lecce | W 2–1 A | D 0–0 A |
| Napoli | L 0–1 A | L 0–2 H |
| Points | 5 of 15 · 1.00 per game | 7 of 15 · 1.40 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
3 Cagliari wins1 draws0 Sassuolo wins
Goals per game1.75 – 0.75
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 19 May 2024Sassuolo0–2Cagliari
- 11 Dec 2023Cagliari2–1Sassuolo
- 16 Apr 2022Cagliari1–0Sassuolo
- 21 Nov 2021Sassuolo2–2Cagliari
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Cagliari | Sassuolo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.25 | 1.13 | |
| Match goals | 2.25 | 2.13 | 2.45 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 25% | 38% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 13% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 38% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 38% | |
| Failed to score | 38% | 38% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Cagliari | Sassuolo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.25 | 1.13 | |
| Match goals | 2.25 | 2.13 | 2.45 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 25% | 38% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 13% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 38% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 38% | |
| Failed to score | 38% | 38% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Cagliari | Sassuolo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.43 | 2.88 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.57 | 5.13 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 8.01 | 9.06 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 4/7 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 14% 1/7 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 14% 1/7 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.25 | 2.75 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.13 | |
| Match total | 4.25 | 4.88 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% 5/8 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% 3/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cagliari | Sassuolo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.89 | 3.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.33 | 5.20 | |
| Match total | 9.22 | 8.30 | 9.06 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Luca Pairetto 61 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.41league 3.90
Red cards0.25league 0.13
Cards 5+51%league 39%
Fouls25.5league 25.8
Penalties0.39league 0.30
Home wins38%league 39%
Cagliari5 with this referee
Record2-1-2
Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.4
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W18 May 25H · Venezia3–01
- L14 Dec 24H · Atalanta0–13
- D25 Feb 24H · Napoli1–14
- W29 Oct 23H · Frosinone4–31
- L12 Sep 21H · Genoa2–32
Sassuolo4 with this referee
Record1-1-2
Cards · opp.2.8 · 2.5
Pens for · against4 · 2
- L15 Jan 23H · Lazio0–25
- D4 Sep 22A · Cremonese0–01
- W6 Mar 22A · Venezia4–11
- L2 Oct 21H · Inter1–24
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Cagliari8 games · scored 8 · conceded 10
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
Sassuolo8 games · scored 8 · conceded 9
2
1
0-15
2
16-30
2
31-45
2
46-60
4
61-75
2
2
76-90
Cagliari10 games · scored 11 · conceded 12
1
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
Sassuolo10 games · scored 9 · conceded 12
2
1
0-15
2
16-30
2
31-45
3
46-60
5
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
