Casa Pia
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Casa Pia were slight favourites.
Casa Pia were the stronger side on L90 Strength (21 vs 10). Casa Pia had 7 days of rest, AVS 6.1 and had to travel.
Rest days7 · 6.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Casa Pia56%
Draw25%
AVS19%
Casa Pia57%
Draw24%
AVS19%
Casa Pia56%
Draw25%
AVS19%
Casa Pia49%
Draw27%
AVS24%
Casa Pia57%
Draw24%
AVS19%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rio Maior)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalRicardo Baixinho
- Cards per match 7.3
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 33
Team strength
Casa Pia
AVS
21
L90 StrengthIn forecast
10
18
Current StrengthIn forecast
16
13
AttackIn forecast
17
25
DefenceIn forecast
21
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAVS
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Casa PiaAVS
0.94
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.61
1.94
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.44
0.79
xGVia Att/Def
0.82
1.69
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.78
+0.15
Goals minus xGContext
-0.21
56%
Scored inContext
44%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
8.11
ShotsContext
9.61
3.06
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.78
34%
On target shareContext
29%
4.65
Shots in the boxContext
5.65
55%
Box shareContext
57%
12%
ConversionContext
6%
2.22
OffsidesContext
1.91
12.94
Shots allowedContext
14.72
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.39
3.33
BlocksContext
3.22
2.53
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.18
54%
Save rateContext
58%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
325
PassesContext
318
251
Accurate passesContext
242
77%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.66
Team ratingContext
6.56
15.17
FoulsContext
13.94
14.28
Fouls sufferedContext
12.06
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.17
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.17
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.60
2.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.40
0.65
xGVia Att/Def
0.82
1.76
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.87
+0.25
Goals minus xGContext
-0.22
50%
Scored inContext
40%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
6.90
ShotsContext
9.90
2.78
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.30
36%
On target shareContext
33%
4.20
Shots in the boxContext
5.70
58%
Box shareContext
56%
13%
ConversionContext
6%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.43
12.80
Shots allowedContext
15.80
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.70
3.10
BlocksContext
3.20
2.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.89
49%
Save rateContext
66%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
328
PassesContext
308
257
Accurate passesContext
234
78%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.55
Team ratingContext
6.56
15.30
FoulsContext
12.60
13.20
Fouls sufferedContext
12.20
2.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Casa Pia
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
AVS
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Casa Pia |
AVS |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 16 Jan | 6.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 17 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | — | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 10 | 9.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Casa Pia
Confirmed XI
1P. Sequeira(G)
43David Sousa
3Kaly
4João Goulart
5A. Conté
74Renato Nhaga
8Rafael Brito
72Gaizka Larrazabal
29J. Livolant
90Cassiano
21Tiago Morais
AVS
Confirmed XI
1Adriel
24Kiki
35Rúben Semedo
26Carlos Ponck
23Gustavo Mendonça
27Ángel Algobia
70Roni
14Ó. Perea
8Pedro Lima
11B. Akinsola
7Tómané
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Casa Pia
Absences are shown before kick-off
AVS
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Casa Pia+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- AVS+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Casa Pia · Home
0.50points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-4-4
- Scored
- 0.88
- Conceded
- 1.88
AVS · Away
0.13points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-7
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 3.13
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Casa Pia | AVS |
|---|---|---|
| Sporting CP | L 0–3 AL 0–2 H | L 0–6 A |
| Rio Ave | L 1–3 A | L 1–2 H |
| Guimaraes | D 0–0 H | L 0–4 A |
| Tondela | W 2–1 A | D 2–2 H |
| GIL Vicente | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Santa Clara | L 0–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Alverca | L 0–2 H | L 1–3 H |
| Benfica | D 2–2 A | L 0–3 H |
| Estrela | L 3–5 H | L 0–3 A |
| SC Braga | L 0–4 A | D 2–2 A |
| Estoril | D 2–2 H | L 1–3 A |
| Moreirense | L 1–2 A | L 0–2 H |
| Famalicao | D 1–1 H | L 0–1 H |
| Arouca | W 2–0 A | L 0–1 HL 1–3 A |
| Nacional | L 0–2 H | D 2–2 H |
| FC Porto | L 0–4 A | L 0–2 A |
| Points | 11 of 51 · 0.65 per game | 4 of 51 · 0.24 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 Casa Pia wins2 draws0 AVS wins
Goals per game1.33 – 0.67
Over 2.50%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 0%
- 15 Aug 2025AVS0–2Casa Pia
- 19 Apr 2025AVS1–1Casa Pia
- 8 Dec 2024Casa Pia1–1AVS
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Casa Pia | AVS | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.94 | 0.61 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.94 | 2.44 | |
| Match goals | 2.89 | 3.06 | 2.57 |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 89% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 61% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 44% | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 44% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 44% | 56% | |
| Games | 18 | 18 |
| Casa Pia | AVS | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 0.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.20 | 2.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 3.00 | 2.57 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 60% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Casa Pia | AVS | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.76 | 3.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.35 | 5.40 | |
| Match total | 9.11 | 9.07 | 9.13 |
| Over 8.5 | 53% 9/17 | 60% 9/15 | |
| Over 9.5 | 47% 8/17 | 40% 6/15 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 5/17 | 40% 6/15 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.11 | 2.39 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.78 | |
| Match total | 5.61 | 5.17 | 5.34 |
| Over 3.5 | 83% 15/18 | 61% 11/18 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 12/18 | 61% 11/18 | |
| Casa Pia | AVS | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.60 | 3.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.10 | 5.44 | |
| Match total | 8.70 | 8.66 | 9.13 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 5.20 | 5.30 | 5.34 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ricardo Baixinho Portugal · 33 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards6.76league 4.99
Red cards0.55league 0.30
Cards 5+82%league 59%
Fouls31.2league 27.3
Penalties0.33league 0.46
Home wins42%league 38%
Casa Pia4 with this referee
Record2-0-2
Cards · opp.4.5 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds2
- L29 Nov 25H · Alverca0–25
- W14 Sep 25A · Arouca2–07
- L24 Aug 24H · Santa Clara0–24
- W8 Jan 24A · Moreirense4–12
AVS1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L22 Sep 24A · Sporting CP0–33
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Casa Pia17 games · scored 14 · conceded 30
2
5
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
7
31-45
2
6
46-60
4
4
61-75
3
5
76-90
AVS18 games · scored 11 · conceded 44
1
6
0-15
1
6
16-30
4
9
31-45
1
10
46-60
1
8
61-75
3
5
76-90
Casa Pia9 games · scored 6 · conceded 17
3
0-15
1
16-30
3
31-45
1
5
46-60
3
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
AVS10 games · scored 6 · conceded 24
4
0-15
2
16-30
3
5
31-45
1
5
46-60
1
5
61-75
1
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
