Casa Pia vs Benfica – 6 Apr 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 28 Mon, Apr 6 · 20:45 Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Rio Maior

Casa Pia 16th · 24 pts · 26 played WLDDL

1–1Full time

Benfica 3rd · 65 pts · 27 played WWDWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Benfica were clear favourites.

Benfica were the stronger side on L90 Strength (80 vs 21). Benfica usually keep the ball (54% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Casa Pia had 17 days of rest, Benfica 16.1 and had to travel 70 km.

Away travel70 kmRest days17 · 16.1Matches / 14d0 · 0

Casa Pia12%

Draw20%

Benfica69%

Expected goals 0.77 – 2.14

Casa Pia12%

Draw20%

Benfica68%

Expected goals 0.82 – 2.19

Casa Pia12%

Draw20%

Benfica69%

Expected goals 0.77 – 2.14

Casa Pia8%

Draw17%

Benfica75%

Expected goals 0.68 – 2.40

Casa Pia12%

Draw19%

Benfica69%

Expected goals 0.83 – 2.25

Over 2.5 56% Both score 48% Likeliest score 0–2

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Rio Maior)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalHelder Filipe Claudio Carvalho

Cards per match 3.9
Penalties per match 0.70
Matches 10

Team strength

Casa Pia

Benfica

21 L90 StrengthIn forecast 80

18 Current StrengthIn forecast 82

13 AttackIn forecast 81

25 DefenceIn forecast 81

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Casa Pia

Attack—

Defense risk—

Benfica

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Casa Pia

Benfica

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.15

1.85 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.63

0.89 xGVia Att/Def 1.84

1.72 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.81

+0.11 Goals minus xGContext +0.31

54% Scored inContext 93%

19% Clean sheetsContext 48%

8.15 ShotsContext 16.33

2.92 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.85

33% On target shareContext 36%

4.68 Shots in the boxContext 10.67

56% Box shareContext 65%

12% ConversionContext 13%

2.33 OffsidesContext 2.17

14.15 Shots allowedContext 8.59

4.65 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.08

4.04 BlocksContext 2.44

2.84 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.54

60% Save rateContext 80%

43% PossessionIn forecast 59%

305 PassesContext 480

230 Accurate passesContext 408

75% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.67 Team ratingContext 7.03

15.23 FoulsContext 10.81

13.88 Fouls sufferedContext 15.48

2.92 Yellow cardsContext 2.11

0.08 Red cardsContext 0.11

This league season, per match · 26 and 27 games

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

1.09 xGVia Att/Def 1.73

1.91 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.05

-0.09 Goals minus xGContext -0.03

50% Scored inContext 80%

20% Clean sheetsContext 30%

8.70 ShotsContext 16.80

2.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.50

31% On target shareContext 33%

5.20 Shots in the boxContext 10.80

57% Box shareContext 64%

12% ConversionContext 10%

2.50 OffsidesContext 2.60

16.30 Shots allowedContext 10.80

5.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.89

4.90 BlocksContext 3.10

3.20 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.89

62% Save rateContext 74%

38% PossessionIn forecast 56%

268 PassesContext 447

193 Accurate passesContext 371

72% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.63 Team ratingContext 6.92

15.70 FoulsContext 8.80

12.50 Fouls sufferedContext 16.10

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Casa Pia

Rest17 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel—0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Benfica

Rest16.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel70 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Casa Pia	Benfica
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	17Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 20 Mar	16.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 21 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	—	70 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 1	0 / 0 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	5.8	5.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.

Squad & lineups

Casa Pia Confirmed XI

3-4-3

1P. Sequeira(G)

43David Sousa 18André Geraldes 4João Goulart

75Pedro Rosas 8Rafael Brito 24I. Mohamed 72Gaizka Larrazabal

21Tiago Morais 90Cassiano 29J. Livolant

Benfica Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1A. Trubin(G)

26S. Dahl 30N. Otamendi 4António Silva 6A. Bah

5E. Barrenechea 20Richard Ríos

21A. Schjelderup 27Rafa 11D. Lukébakio

14V. Pavlidis

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Casa Pia Absences are shown before kick-off

Benfica Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Casa Pia+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Benfica+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Casa Pia · Home 1.00points per game · 12 home games

W-D-L: 2-6-4
Scored: 1.33
Conceded: 1.83

Benfica · Away 2.54points per game · 13 away games

W-D-L: 10-3-0
Scored: 1.92
Conceded: 0.54

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Casa Pia	Benfica
Estrela	L 0–4 AL 3–5 H	W 4–0 HW 1–0 A
Estoril	D 0–0 AD 2–2 H	W 3–1 H
Moreirense	D 1–1 HL 1–2 A	W 4–0 A
Famalicao	L 0–2 AD 1–1 H	W 1–0 H
Arouca	W 3–2 HW 2–0 A	W 2–1 AW 5–0 H
Nacional	D 0–0 AL 0–2 H	W 2–1 A
FC Porto	W 2–1 HL 0–4 A	D 2–2 HD 0–0 A
AVS	D 3–3 HW 2–0 A	W 3–0 HW 3–0 A
Sporting CP	L 0–3 AL 0–2 H	D 1–1 H
Rio Ave	L 1–3 A	W 2–0 AD 1–1 H
Guimaraes	D 0–0 H	W 3–0 HW 3–0 A
Tondela	W 2–1 A	D 0–0 AW 3–0 H
GIL Vicente	D 1–1 H	W 2–1 AW 2–1 H
Santa Clara	L 0–1 A	W 2–1 AD 1–1 H
Alverca	L 0–2 H	W 2–1 HW 2–1 A
SC Braga	L 0–4 A	D 2–2 A
Points	23 of 75 · 0.92 per game	64 of 78 · 2.46 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

1 Casa Pia wins2 draws4 Benfica wins

Goals per game0.86 – 1.71 Over 2.557% Both scored43% Clean sheets0% · 57%

9 Nov 2025Benfica2–2Casa Pia
25 Jan 2025Casa Pia3–1Benfica
17 Aug 2024Benfica3–0Casa Pia
17 Mar 2024Casa Pia0–1Benfica
28 Oct 2023Benfica1–1Casa Pia
4 Feb 2023Benfica3–0Casa Pia

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Casa Pia	Benfica	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	2.15
Conceded per game	1.85	0.63
Match goals	2.85	2.78	2.91
Over 1.5	85%	85%
Over 2.5	50%	70%	56%
Over 3.5	35%	26%
Both teams scored	46%	52%	48%
Clean sheets	19%	48%
Failed to score	46%	7%
Games	26	27

	Casa Pia	Benfica	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	2.20
Conceded per game	1.90	0.60
Match goals	2.90	2.80	2.91
Over 1.5	80%	90%
Over 2.5	60%	80%	56%
Over 3.5	40%	20%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	48%
Clean sheets	20%	50%
Failed to score	50%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Casa Pia	Benfica	League
Corners
Corners won	3.46	6.81
Corners conceded	5.75	2.58
Match total	9.21	9.39	9.22
Over 8.5	54% 13/24	58% 15/26
Over 9.5	46% 11/24	46% 12/26
Over 10.5	33% 8/24	31% 8/26
Cards
Cards	3.00	2.30
Opponent cards	2.62	3.00
Match total	5.62	5.30	5.12
Over 3.5	88% 23/26	70% 19/27
Over 4.5	73% 19/26	63% 17/27

	Casa Pia	Benfica	League
Corners
Corners won	3.22	7.80
Corners conceded	6.67	3.00
Match total	9.89	10.80	9.22
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	2.60	2.50
Opponent cards	2.30	3.20
Match total	4.90	5.70	5.12
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Helder Filipe Claudio Carvalho Portugal · 10 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.80league 4.81

Red cards0.10league 0.25

Cards 5+30%league 57%

Fouls28.6league 26.9

Penalties0.70league 0.43

Home wins20%league 41%

Casa Pia

No previous matches with this referee.

Benfica3 with this referee

Record3-0-0 Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.3 Pens for · against3 · 0

W14 Dec 25A · Moreirense4–00
W25 Oct 25H · Arouca5–02
W16 Aug 25A · Estrela1–03

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.