Casa Pia vs Benfica – 17 Aug 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 2 Mon, Aug 17 · 20:15 Estádio Nacional, Jamor, Oeiras

Casa Pia 16th · 0 pts · 1 played L

0–7Full time

Benfica 9th · 1 pts · 1 played D

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Benfica were clear favourites.

Benfica were the stronger side on L90 Strength (78 vs 21). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Benfica. Casa Pia had 9.2 days of rest, Benfica 4 and had to travel.

Rest days9.2 · 4Matches / 14d1 · 3

Casa Pia12%

Draw17%

Benfica71%

Expected goals 0.85 – 2.37

Casa Pia13%

Draw19%

Benfica68%

Expected goals 0.83 – 2.16

Casa Pia12%

Draw17%

Benfica71%

Expected goals 0.85 – 2.37

Casa Pia8%

Draw14%

Benfica78%

Expected goals 0.76 – 2.65

Casa Pia12%

Draw18%

Benfica70%

Expected goals 0.87 – 2.34

Over 2.5 62% Both score 52% Likeliest score 0–2

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Jamor, Oeiras)

No weather data yet

RefereeJoao Pinheiro

Cards per match 2.9
Penalties per match 0.43
Matches 7

Team strength

Casa Pia

Benfica

21 L90 StrengthIn forecast 78

18 Current StrengthIn forecast 82

13 AttackIn forecast 81

25 DefenceIn forecast 81

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Casa Pia

Attack—

Defense risk—

Benfica

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Casa Pia

Benfica

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

0.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.80

0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

0.98 xGVia Att/Def 2.63

1.03 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.11

-0.38 Goals minus xGContext +0.17

50% Scored inContext 100%

40% Clean sheetsContext 10%

10.20 ShotsContext 18.00

3.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.83

37% On target shareContext 38%

6.50 Shots in the boxContext 13.83

64% Box shareContext 77%

6% ConversionContext 14%

1.80 OffsidesContext 1.50

11.30 Shots allowedContext 11.33

3.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.33

3.75 BlocksContext 2.33

2.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.60

80% Save rateContext 75%

41% PossessionIn forecast 54%

288 PassesContext 418

208 Accurate passesContext 347

72% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.76 Team ratingContext 6.96

15.70 FoulsContext 11.14

12.80 Fouls sufferedContext 13.00

2.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.30

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Casa Pia L

Rest9.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 34 · 0 pts vs 1.9 for an average club · -1.4 vs expected

L8 AugA · Maritimo0–11.4 xPts

Benfica D

Rest4 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel—3,931 km in 14d

Schedule load25%Moderate

Form 41 · 1 pts vs 2.0 for an average club · -1.5 vs expected

D9 AugH · Academico Viseu2–22.5 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Casa Pia	Benfica
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 25
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	9.2Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 8 Aug	4UEFA Europa League 2026-2027, 13 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	—
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	3,931 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 1	1 / 3 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	7	3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.

Squad & lineups

Casa Pia Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

31André Gomes(G)

5A. Conté 43David Sousa 4João Goulart 18André Geraldes

24S. Pérez 80L. Ofori

10Rochinha 8Gabi Pereira 19Kevin Prieto

9Henrique Araújo

Benfica Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

24Samuel Soares(G)

26S. Dahl 2C. Lenglet 44Tomás Araújo 6A. Bah

5E. Barrenechea 18L. Barreiro

25G. Prestianni 10H. Sudakov 27Rafa

14V. Pavlidis

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Casa Pia Absences are shown before kick-off

Benfica Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Casa Pia+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Benfica+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Casa Pia · Home No home games yet this season.

Benfica · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

1 Casa Pia wins3 draws4 Benfica wins

Goals per game0.88 – 1.63 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets0% · 50%

6 Apr 2026Casa Pia1–1Benfica
9 Nov 2025Benfica2–2Casa Pia
25 Jan 2025Casa Pia3–1Benfica
17 Aug 2024Benfica3–0Casa Pia
17 Mar 2024Casa Pia0–1Benfica
28 Oct 2023Benfica1–1Casa Pia

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Casa Pia	Benfica	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	2.00
Conceded per game	1.00	2.00
Match goals	1.00	4.00	3.22
Over 1.5	0%	100%
Over 2.5	0%	100%	62%
Over 3.5	0%	100%
Both teams scored	0%	100%	52%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	100%	0%
Games	1	1

	Casa Pia	Benfica	Forecast
Scored per game	0.50	2.80
Conceded per game	1.40	1.30
Match goals	1.90	4.10	3.22
Over 1.5	50%	100%
Over 2.5	30%	90%	62%
Over 3.5	20%	70%
Both teams scored	40%	90%	52%
Clean sheets	20%	10%
Failed to score	50%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Casa Pia	Benfica	League
Corners
Corners won	6.00	10.00
Corners conceded	2.00	2.00
Match total	8.00	12.00	9.00
Over 8.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.00
Opponent cards	2.00	4.00
Match total	4.00	6.00	4.80
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1

	Casa Pia	Benfica	League
Corners
Corners won	5.33	7.71
Corners conceded	5.11	2.57
Match total	10.44	10.28	9.00
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	86% 6/7
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	71% 5/7
Over 10.5	22% 2/9	57% 4/7
Cards
Cards	3.00	1.40
Opponent cards	2.10	2.80
Match total	5.10	4.20	4.80
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Joao Pinheiro 7 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards2.86league 4.69

Red cards0.00league 0.25

Cards 5+0%league 50%

Fouls22.2league 25.0

Penalties0.43league 0.31

Home wins43%league 38%

Casa Pia

No previous matches with this referee.

Benfica

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.