Casa Pia vs Famalicao – 21 Sep 2025

Primeira Liga Gameweek 6 Sun, Sep 21 · 20:30 Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Rio Maior

Casa Pia 11th · 6 pts · 5 played LWLLW

1–1Full time

Famalicao 6th · 10 pts · 5 played WWDWL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Famalicao were the stronger side on L90 Strength (37 vs 28). Casa Pia had 7.1 days of rest, Famalicao 8 and had to travel 233 km.

Away travel233 kmRest days7.1 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1

Casa Pia36%

Draw28%

Famalicao35%

Expected goals 1.26 – 1.24

Casa Pia37%

Draw27%

Famalicao36%

Expected goals 1.36 – 1.32

Casa Pia36%

Draw28%

Famalicao35%

Expected goals 1.26 – 1.24

Casa Pia30%

Draw28%

Famalicao42%

Expected goals 1.12 – 1.39

Casa Pia37%

Draw27%

Famalicao36%

Expected goals 1.36 – 1.32

Over 2.5 45% Both score 51% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Rio Maior)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalHelder Malheiro

Cards per match 5.9
Penalties per match 0.43
Matches 46

Team strength

Casa Pia

Famalicao

28 L90 StrengthIn forecast 37

18 Current StrengthIn forecast 38

13 AttackIn forecast 24

25 DefenceIn forecast 36

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Casa Pia

Attack—

Defense risk—

Famalicao

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Casa Pia

Famalicao

0.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.40

0.86 xGVia Att/Def 0.86

1.67 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.99

-0.06 Goals minus xGContext +0.34

40% Scored inContext 80%

40% Clean sheetsContext 80%

8.40 ShotsContext 10.20

3.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.40

33% On target shareContext 33%

4.00 Shots in the boxContext 7.60

46% Box shareContext 75%

10% ConversionContext 12%

2.50 OffsidesContext 1.67

14.40 Shots allowedContext 12.00

5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

3.80 BlocksContext 2.75

3.75 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.60

65% Save rateContext 90%

42% PossessionIn forecast 48%

305 PassesContext 358

227 Accurate passesContext 286

74% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.77 Team ratingContext 7.01

15.00 FoulsContext 18.80

16.40 Fouls sufferedContext 15.80

3.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 5 and 5 games

0.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

0.86 xGVia Att/Def 1.19

1.66 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.14

+0.04 Goals minus xGContext +0.01

60% Scored inContext 90%

30% Clean sheetsContext 40%

7.00 ShotsContext 10.60

3.25 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.60

37% On target shareContext 34%

3.63 Shots in the boxContext 6.90

54% Box shareContext 65%

13% ConversionContext 11%

2.80 OffsidesContext 1.60

14.50 Shots allowedContext 11.70

4.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

3.90 BlocksContext 3.25

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.44

64% Save rateContext 80%

44% PossessionIn forecast 49%

314 PassesContext 349

236 Accurate passesContext 279

75% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.79 Team ratingContext 6.94

14.40 FoulsContext 16.80

15.10 Fouls sufferedContext 16.50

3.20 Yellow cardsContext 2.50

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Casa Pia

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel—0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Famalicao

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel233 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Casa Pia	Famalicao
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 14 Sep	8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 13 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	—	233 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	5.8	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.

Squad & lineups

Casa Pia Confirmed XI

3-4-3

1P. Sequeira(G)

43David Sousa 6José Fonte 18André Geraldes

12F. Benaissa-Yahia 74Renato Nhaga 42S. Pérez 72Gaizka Larrazabal

21Tiago Morais 90Cassiano 29J. Livolant

Famalicao Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

25L. Carević(G)

28Pedro Bondo 16J. de Haas 3L. Realpe 17Rodrigo Pinheiro

14M. De Amorim 6T. van de Looi

7Sorriso 20Gustavo Sá 23Gil Dias

12S. Elisor

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Casa Pia Absences are shown before kick-off

Famalicao Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Casa Pia+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Famalicao+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Casa Pia · Home 0.00points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 0-0-2
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 2.00

Famalicao · Away 3.00points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 2-0-0
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 0.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

Opponent	Casa Pia	Famalicao
AVS	W 2–0 A	W 1–0 A
Sporting CP	L 0–2 H	L 1–2 H
Points	3 of 6 · 1.50 per game	3 of 6 · 1.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

2 Casa Pia wins1 draws3 Famalicao wins

Goals per game0.83 – 1.17 Over 2.533% Both scored50% Clean sheets17% · 33%

16 May 2025Famalicao2–1Casa Pia
5 Jan 2025Casa Pia1–1Famalicao
17 May 2024Famalicao1–2Casa Pia
13 Jan 2024Casa Pia0–2Famalicao
13 Mar 2023Famalicao1–0Casa Pia
18 Sep 2022Casa Pia1–0Famalicao

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Casa Pia	Famalicao	Forecast
Scored per game	0.80	1.20
Conceded per game	1.60	0.40
Match goals	2.40	1.60	2.49
Over 1.5	100%	40%
Over 2.5	20%	40%	45%
Over 3.5	20%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	20%	51%
Clean sheets	40%	80%
Failed to score	60%	20%
Games	5	5

	Casa Pia	Famalicao	Forecast
Scored per game	0.80	1.20
Conceded per game	1.60	0.40
Match goals	2.40	1.60	2.49
Over 1.5	100%	40%
Over 2.5	20%	40%	45%
Over 3.5	20%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	20%	51%
Clean sheets	40%	80%
Failed to score	60%	20%
Games	5	5

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Casa Pia	Famalicao	League
Corners
Corners won	3.00	5.00
Corners conceded	6.25	4.60
Match total	9.25	9.60	8.91
Over 8.5	75% 3/4	80% 4/5
Over 9.5	50% 2/4	40% 2/5
Over 10.5	25% 1/4	40% 2/5
Cards
Cards	3.60	3.00
Opponent cards	2.60	1.40
Match total	6.20	4.40	5.07
Over 3.5	100% 5/5	80% 4/5
Over 4.5	80% 4/5	60% 3/5

	Casa Pia	Famalicao	League
Corners
Corners won	3.25	6.20
Corners conceded	6.25	4.60
Match total	9.50	10.80	8.91
Over 8.5	50% 4/8	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	38% 3/8	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	25% 2/8	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	3.40	2.80
Opponent cards	2.60	3.50
Match total	6.00	6.30	5.07
Over 3.5	90% 9/10	90% 9/10
Over 4.5	80% 8/10	80% 8/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Helder Malheiro Portugal · 46 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.59league 5.02

Red cards0.30league 0.20

Cards 5+67%league 61%

Fouls28.8league 27.7

Penalties0.43league 0.37

Home wins50%league 33%

Casa Pia7 with this referee

Record2-0-5 Cards · opp.3.4 · 2.4 Pens for · against0 · 3 Reds2

L9 Mar 25H · Sporting CP1–34
W9 Feb 25H · Estrela1–04
L2 Dec 24A · FC Porto0–20
L27 May 23A · GIL Vicente0–12
L16 Jan 23A · Estoril0–26

Famalicao5 with this referee

Record2-3-0 Cards · opp.3.2 · 1.6 Pens for · against1 · 0

D16 Dec 24A · SC Braga3–31
D14 Sep 24H · GIL Vicente1–11
D10 Feb 24A · Farense1–16
W22 Apr 23H · Maritimo3–23
W30 Dec 22A · Chaves2–05

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.