Casa Pia
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Casa Pia10.1%fair odds 9.94
Draw18.4%fair odds 5.42
FC Porto71.5%fair odds 1.40
Expected goals0.73 – 2.25total 2.97
Likeliest score0–212.9%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
FC Porto
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Casa Pia ↓ · FC Porto → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 11.1 | 12.9 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 3.3 | 8.8 | 9.4 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 1.3 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Casa Pia goals, columns FC Porto goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 0–212.9%7.74
- 0–111.1%9.03
- 0–39.7%10.33
- 1–29.4%10.67
- 1–18.8%11.38
- 1–37.0%14.25
- 0–05.6%17.95
- 0–45.4%18.41
- 1–43.9%25.39
- 2–23.4%29.43
Winning margin
0.6%
Casa Pia by 3+
fair 173.72
2.2%
Casa Pia by 2
fair 44.54
7.2%
Casa Pia by 1
fair 13.80
18.4%
Draw
fair 5.42
23.4%
FC Porto by 1
fair 4.28
21.5%
FC Porto by 2
fair 4.64
26.6%
FC Porto by 3+
fair 3.76
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
18%5+
Casa Pia goals
48%0
35%1
13%2
3%3
1%4+
FC Porto goals
11%0
24%1
27%2
20%3
19%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia win | 10.1% | 10.4% | -0.3 pp |
| Draw | 18.4% | 18.6% | -0.1 pp |
| FC Porto win | 71.5% | 71.1% | +0.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 57.0% | 57.4% | -0.4 pp |
| Both teams score | 46.5% | 47.3% | -0.8 pp |
| Expected goals Casa Pia | 0.73 | 0.74 | -0.02 |
| Expected goals FC Porto | 2.25 | 2.25 | -0.00 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Casa Pia win10.1%9.94
- Draw18.4%5.42
- FC Porto win71.5%1.40
- Double chance Casa Pia or draw28.5%3.51
- Double chance Casa Pia or FC Porto81.6%1.23
- Double chance FC Porto or draw89.9%1.11
- Draw no bet Casa Pia12.3%8.10
- Draw no bet FC Porto87.7%1.14
Goals
- Over 0.594.4%1.06
- Over 1.580.1%1.25
- Over 2.557.0%1.75
- Over 3.534.6%2.89
- Over 4.518.0%5.56
- Under 1.519.9%5.02
- Under 2.543.0%2.33
- Under 3.565.4%1.53
Both teams to score
- Yes46.5%2.15
- No53.5%1.87
- Yes and over 2.537.8%2.65
- Casa Pia win and yes5.0%19.81
- Draw and yes12.9%7.77
- FC Porto win and yes28.6%3.49
Team goals
- Casa Pia over 0.551.6%1.94
- Casa Pia over 1.516.5%6.08
- Casa Pia over 2.53.7%26.84
- FC Porto over 0.589.4%1.12
- FC Porto over 1.565.6%1.52
- FC Porto over 2.538.9%2.57
- Casa Pia clean sheet10.6%9.44
- FC Porto clean sheet48.4%2.06
- Casa Pia win to nil5.0%19.93
- FC Porto win to nil42.9%2.33
Handicap
- Casa Pia −1.52.8%35.45
- Casa Pia −2.50.6%173.72
- FC Porto +1.597.2%1.03
- FC Porto +2.599.4%1.01
- FC Porto −1.548.1%2.08
- Casa Pia +1.551.9%1.93
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Primeira Liga 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored45
Favourite won51.1%
Avg chance given to result45.1%
1X2 Brier0.544
Over 2.5 called right62.2%
BTTS called right48.9%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 8 | 38.6% | 25.0% |
| 40–50% | 8 | 44.8% | 0.0% |
| 50–60% | 12 | 52.9% | 66.7% |
| 60–70% | 6 | 65.0% | 66.7% |
| 70–80% | 8 | 74.6% | 87.5% |
| 80%+ | 3 | 84.5% | 66.7% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 11 of 45 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5493 | 0.5431 |
| Avg chance given to result | 44.7% | 45.9% |
| Favourite won | 45.5% | 45.5% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 11 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 45 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.