Casa Pia
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
FC Porto were clear favourites.
FC Porto were the stronger side on L90 Strength (79 vs 18). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for FC Porto. Casa Pia had 6 days of rest, FC Porto 3.9 and had to travel.
Rest days6 · 3.9Matches / 14d2 · 3
Casa Pia11%
Draw18%
FC Porto72%
Casa Pia12%
Draw18%
FC Porto71%
Casa Pia11%
Draw18%
FC Porto72%
Casa Pia8%
Draw14%
FC Porto78%
Casa Pia11%
Draw18%
FC Porto72%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 46%
Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Jamor, Oeiras)
No weather data yet
Referee—Not recorded
Team strength
Casa Pia
FC Porto
18
L90 StrengthIn forecast
79
18
Current StrengthIn forecast
80
13
AttackIn forecast
74
25
DefenceIn forecast
79
8
Form indexContext
89
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFC Porto
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Casa PiaFC Porto
0.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.20
2.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.20
0.59
xGVia Att/Def
2.25
1.56
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.90
-0.59
Goals minus xGContext
-0.05
0%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
80%
9.20
ShotsContext
14.80
2.75
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.40
24%
On target shareContext
43%
6.75
Shots in the boxContext
10.20
62%
Box shareContext
71%
0%
ConversionContext
15%
1.50
OffsidesContext
3.50
15.40
Shots allowedContext
9.60
5.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.00
5.75
BlocksContext
2.60
3.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.80
64%
Save rateContext
90%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
368
PassesContext
449
296
Accurate passesContext
383
80%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.54
Team ratingContext
7.14
11.20
FoulsContext
13.80
14.80
Fouls sufferedContext
8.80
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
0.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
0.86
xGVia Att/Def
1.75
1.27
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.06
-0.46
Goals minus xGContext
-0.15
30%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
10.00
ShotsContext
13.60
3.78
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.44
34%
On target shareContext
36%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
9.20
65%
Box shareContext
68%
4%
ConversionContext
12%
1.56
OffsidesContext
3.11
13.90
Shots allowedContext
10.70
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.67
5.00
BlocksContext
2.40
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.78
76%
Save rateContext
76%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
320
PassesContext
436
244
Accurate passesContext
368
76%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.70
Team ratingContext
6.99
13.90
FoulsContext
13.40
14.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
0.80
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Casa Pia
LLLLD
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 8 · 1 pts vs 8.0 for an average club · -4.0 vs expected
FC Porto
WWWWW
Rest3.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel—160 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Form 89 · 15 pts vs 9.2 for an average club · +3.7 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Casa Pia |
FC Porto |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 15 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 6 Sep | 3.9UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 8 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 160 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 3 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 8.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Casa Pia
Confirmed XI
95Ivan Mandić(G)
75Pedro Rosas
43David Sousa
3Kaly
18André Geraldes
80L. Ofori
16Silvi
77B. Pauwels
70João Rêgo
11M. El Boukammiri
9Henrique Araújo
FC Porto
Confirmed XI
99Diogo Costa(G)
74Francisco Moura
4J. Kiwior
5J. Bednarek
20Alberto Baio
10Gabri Veiga
13P. Rosario
16I. Hwang
11Pepê
19André Silva
7William Gomes
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Casa Pia
Absences are shown before kick-off
FC Porto
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Casa Pia+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- FC Porto+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Casa Pia · Home
0.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 4.00
FC Porto · Away
3.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 2.50
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Casa Pia | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| Moreirense | L 0–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| Points | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
1 Casa Pia wins1 draws6 FC Porto wins
Goals per game0.63 – 1.88
Over 2.563%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets13% · 50%
- 2 Feb 2026Casa Pia2–1FC Porto
- 24 Aug 2025FC Porto4–0Casa Pia
- 12 Apr 2025Casa Pia0–1FC Porto
- 2 Dec 2024FC Porto2–0Casa Pia
- 21 Apr 2024Casa Pia1–2FC Porto
- 9 Dec 2023FC Porto3–1Casa Pia
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Casa Pia | FC Porto | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 2.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.20 | 0.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 2.40 | 2.97 |
| Over 1.5 | 40% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 40% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 20% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 80% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 0% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Casa Pia | FC Porto | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.30 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 0.70 | |
| Match goals | 1.90 | 2.30 | 2.97 |
| Over 1.5 | 40% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 40% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 30% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 70% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Casa Pia | FC Porto | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 7.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.20 | 3.80 | |
| Match total | 9.20 | 10.80 | 8.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 20% 1/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 1/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 1/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 0.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 1.80 | 4.05 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 3/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/5 | 0% 0/5 | |
| Casa Pia | FC Porto | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.44 | 6.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.33 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 9.77 | 10.33 | 8.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.80 | 0.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 2.80 | 4.05 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Casa Pia5 games · scored 0 · conceded 11
2
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
4
46-60
2
61-75
76-90
FC Porto5 games · scored 11 · conceded 1
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
2
76-90
Casa Pia10 games · scored 4 · conceded 13
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
5
46-60
3
61-75
2
76-90
FC Porto10 games · scored 16 · conceded 7
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
5
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
