Casa Pia
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Santa Clara. Casa Pia had 6.1 days of rest, Santa Clara 7 and had to travel 1,464 km.
Away travel1,464 kmRest days6.1 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 1
Casa Pia36%
Draw31%
Santa Clara34%
Casa Pia43%
Draw27%
Santa Clara30%
Casa Pia36%
Draw31%
Santa Clara34%
Casa Pia30%
Draw30%
Santa Clara40%
Casa Pia37%
Draw29%
Santa Clara34%
Over 2.5 37%
Both score 45%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rio Maior)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalAntonio Nobre
- Cards per match 5.5
- Penalties per match 0.35
- Matches 78
Team strength
Casa Pia
Santa Clara
21
L90 StrengthIn forecast
22
18
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
13
AttackIn forecast
29
25
DefenceIn forecast
53
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSanta Clara
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Casa PiaSanta Clara
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.86
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.28
0.86
xGVia Att/Def
0.97
1.72
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.07
+0.14
Goals minus xGContext
-0.07
57%
Scored inContext
62%
18%
Clean sheetsContext
28%
8.39
ShotsContext
11.28
2.96
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.48
33%
On target shareContext
29%
4.89
Shots in the boxContext
6.21
57%
Box shareContext
54%
12%
ConversionContext
8%
2.25
OffsidesContext
2.18
14.14
Shots allowedContext
9.48
4.61
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.74
4.00
BlocksContext
2.73
2.81
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.71
60%
Save rateContext
68%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
297
PassesContext
361
221
Accurate passesContext
289
74%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.66
Team ratingContext
6.74
15.36
FoulsContext
15.17
13.57
Fouls sufferedContext
14.07
2.75
Yellow cardsContext
2.76
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.03
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
0.99
xGVia Att/Def
0.83
1.79
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.23
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.37
60%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
8.90
ShotsContext
11.40
2.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.30
32%
On target shareContext
29%
5.30
Shots in the boxContext
5.90
60%
Box shareContext
51%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
2.29
OffsidesContext
1.71
16.30
Shots allowedContext
10.30
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.78
5.20
BlocksContext
3.40
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.38
69%
Save rateContext
58%
36%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
247
PassesContext
350
166
Accurate passesContext
278
67%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.66
Team ratingContext
6.70
15.70
FoulsContext
16.40
12.30
Fouls sufferedContext
12.50
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Casa Pia
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Santa Clara
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel1,464 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Casa Pia |
Santa Clara |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 12 Apr | 7Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 11 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | — | 1,464 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Casa Pia
Confirmed XI
1P. Sequeira(G)
43David Sousa
18André Geraldes
4João Goulart
75Pedro Rosas
8Rafael Brito
24I. Mohamed
72Gaizka Larrazabal
11João Marques
90Cassiano
29J. Livolant
Santa Clara
Confirmed XI
1Gabriel Batista(G)
5Guilherme Romão
94Henrique Silva
23Sidney Lima
42Lucas Soares
35Serginho
8Pedro Ferreira
65José Tavares
70Vinícius Lopes
39Gonçalo Paciência
10Gabriel Silva
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Casa Pia
Absences are shown before kick-off
Santa Clara
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Casa Pia+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Santa Clara+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Casa Pia · Home
1.00points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-7-4
- Scored
- 1.31
- Conceded
- 1.77
Santa Clara · Away
0.79points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-5-7
- Scored
- 0.93
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Casa Pia | Santa Clara |
|---|---|---|
| Alverca | L 1–3 AL 0–2 H | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Benfica | D 1–1 HD 2–2 A | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Estrela | L 0–4 AL 3–5 H | L 0–1 AD 0–0 H |
| Estoril | D 0–0 AD 2–2 H | L 2–4 HW 1–0 A |
| Moreirense | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A | L 0–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Famalicao | L 0–2 AD 1–1 H | L 0–1 HL 0–3 A |
| Arouca | W 3–2 HW 2–0 A | D 0–0 H |
| Nacional | D 0–0 AL 0–2 H | D 3–3 A |
| FC Porto | W 2–1 HL 0–4 A | L 0–1 H |
| AVS | D 3–3 HW 2–0 A | W 1–0 AW 2–0 H |
| Sporting CP | L 0–3 AL 0–2 H | L 2–4 AL 1–2 H |
| Rio Ave | L 1–3 A | L 0–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Guimaraes | D 0–0 H | W 2–0 HL 1–2 A |
| Tondela | W 2–1 A | D 2–2 AL 1–2 H |
| GIL Vicente | D 1–1 H | W 1–0 HL 0–1 A |
| SC Braga | L 0–4 A | L 0–1 A |
| Points | 25 of 81 · 0.93 per game | 25 of 84 · 0.89 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
1 Casa Pia wins1 draws3 Santa Clara wins
Goals per game0.60 – 1.20
Over 2.540%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets20% · 60%
- 6 Dec 2025Santa Clara1–0Casa Pia
- 1 Feb 2025Santa Clara2–1Casa Pia
- 24 Aug 2024Casa Pia0–2Santa Clara
- 29 Jan 2023Casa Pia2–1Santa Clara
- 7 Aug 2022Santa Clara0–0Casa Pia
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Casa Pia | Santa Clara | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.86 | 1.28 | |
| Match goals | 2.86 | 2.17 | 2.19 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 55% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 34% | 37% |
| Over 3.5 | 36% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 41% | 45% |
| Clean sheets | 18% | 28% | |
| Failed to score | 43% | 38% | |
| Games | 28 | 29 |
| Casa Pia | Santa Clara | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.80 | 2.19 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 40% | 37% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 45% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Casa Pia | Santa Clara | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.73 | 4.36 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.04 | 4.72 | |
| Match total | 9.77 | 9.08 | 9.34 |
| Over 8.5 | 58% 15/26 | 60% 15/25 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 13/26 | 44% 11/25 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 10/26 | 32% 8/25 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.82 | 2.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.43 | 2.93 | |
| Match total | 5.25 | 5.83 | 5.07 |
| Over 3.5 | 82% 23/28 | 83% 24/29 | |
| Over 4.5 | 68% 19/28 | 66% 19/29 | |
| Casa Pia | Santa Clara | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.67 | 4.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.33 | 4.60 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 8.80 | 9.34 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 5.40 | 5.07 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Antonio Nobre Portugal · 78 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.04league 4.79
Red cards0.42league 0.25
Cards 5+58%league 57%
Fouls27.7league 26.9
Penalties0.35league 0.43
Home wins60%league 41%
Casa Pia4 with this referee
Record2-1-1
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W25 Jan 25H · Benfica3–12
- D2 Nov 24A · Rio Ave2–23
- L8 Mar 24A · Estrela1–32
- W19 Mar 23H · Maritimo2–02
Santa Clara5 with this referee
Record1-2-2
Cards · opp.4.4 · 2.4
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds1
- L13 Feb 26H · Benfica1–26
- W25 Oct 25H · AVS2–01
- D3 May 25A · SC Braga1–16
- D5 Jan 25H · Farense0–03
- L11 Mar 23A · Pacos Ferreira0–16
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Casa Pia27 games · scored 25 · conceded 47
5
7
0-15
3
3
16-30
5
11
31-45
3
8
46-60
5
8
61-75
4
10
76-90
Santa Clara29 games · scored 26 · conceded 37
10
5
0-15
6
16-30
1
8
31-45
3
7
46-60
3
6
61-75
9
5
76-90
Casa Pia10 games · scored 11 · conceded 17
3
2
0-15
2
16-30
3
4
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
4
61-75
1
5
76-90
Santa Clara10 games · scored 12 · conceded 16
4
2
0-15
2
16-30
5
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
