Casa Pia
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Casa Pia28.4%fair odds 3.52
Draw27.6%fair odds 3.62
Santa Clara43.9%fair odds 2.28
Expected goals1.11 – 1.44total 2.54
Likeliest score1–113.2%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Santa Clara
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Casa Pia ↓ · Santa Clara → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 10.6 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 13.2 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.9 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Casa Pia goals, columns Santa Clara goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.2%7.60
- 0–110.6%9.42
- 1–29.0%11.14
- 0–08.5%11.75
- 0–28.1%12.34
- 1–08.0%12.45
- 2–16.9%14.45
- 2–25.0%20.11
- 2–04.8%20.76
- 1–34.3%23.25
Winning margin
3.5%
Casa Pia by 3+
fair 28.96
7.9%
Casa Pia by 2
fair 12.60
17.1%
Casa Pia by 1
fair 5.86
27.6%
Draw
fair 3.62
22.3%
Santa Clara by 1
fair 4.48
13.4%
Santa Clara by 2
fair 7.49
8.3%
Santa Clara by 3+
fair 12.10
Goal distribution
Total goals
9%0
19%1
26%2
22%3
14%4
11%5+
Casa Pia goals
33%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
3%4+
Santa Clara goals
24%0
34%1
25%2
12%3
6%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia win | 28.4% | 28.8% | -0.4 pp |
| Draw | 27.6% | 27.1% | +0.6 pp |
| Santa Clara win | 43.9% | 44.1% | -0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 46.8% | 49.1% | -2.3 pp |
| Both teams score | 51.7% | 53.6% | -1.8 pp |
| Expected goals Casa Pia | 1.11 | 1.15 | -0.05 |
| Expected goals Santa Clara | 1.44 | 1.48 | -0.05 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Casa Pia win28.4%3.52
- Draw27.6%3.62
- Santa Clara win43.9%2.28
- Double chance Casa Pia or draw56.1%1.78
- Double chance Casa Pia or Santa Clara72.4%1.38
- Double chance Santa Clara or draw71.6%1.40
- Draw no bet Casa Pia39.3%2.54
- Draw no bet Santa Clara60.7%1.65
Goals
- Over 0.591.5%1.09
- Over 1.572.8%1.37
- Over 2.546.8%2.14
- Over 3.525.2%3.97
- Over 4.511.5%8.70
- Under 1.527.2%3.68
- Under 2.553.2%1.88
- Under 3.574.8%1.34
Both teams to score
- Yes51.7%1.93
- No48.3%2.07
- Yes and over 2.538.6%2.59
- Casa Pia win and yes13.2%7.58
- Draw and yes19.1%5.23
- Santa Clara win and yes19.4%5.15
Team goals
- Casa Pia over 0.567.0%1.49
- Casa Pia over 1.530.4%3.29
- Casa Pia over 2.510.1%9.89
- Santa Clara over 0.576.2%1.31
- Santa Clara over 1.542.1%2.38
- Santa Clara over 2.517.6%5.70
- Casa Pia clean sheet23.8%4.21
- Santa Clara clean sheet33.0%3.03
- Casa Pia win to nil15.3%6.56
- Santa Clara win to nil24.5%4.08
Handicap
- Casa Pia −1.511.4%8.78
- Casa Pia −2.53.5%28.96
- Santa Clara +1.588.6%1.13
- Santa Clara +2.596.5%1.04
- Santa Clara −1.521.6%4.62
- Casa Pia +1.578.4%1.28
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Primeira Liga 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored65
Favourite won50.8%
Avg chance given to result43.8%
1X2 Brier0.563
Over 2.5 called right56.9%
BTTS called right49.2%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 12 | 38.3% | 33.3% |
| 40–50% | 14 | 44.4% | 21.4% |
| 50–60% | 17 | 53.4% | 52.9% |
| 60–70% | 7 | 65.0% | 71.4% |
| 70–80% | 12 | 75.0% | 83.3% |
| 80%+ | 3 | 84.5% | 66.7% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 31 of 65 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5853 | 0.5964 |
| Avg chance given to result | 42.1% | 42.3% |
| Favourite won | 48.4% | 45.2% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 31 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✓Maritimo 1–2 FC Porto10·15·75
- ✓SC Braga 1–3 Sporting CP32·25·43
- ✗Moreirense 0–1 GIL Vicente36·27·36
- ✓FC Porto 3–1 Benfica39·24·37
- ✗Estoril 1–2 Casa Pia51·25·24
- ✗Santa Clara 0–0 SC Braga33·26·40
- ✗Estrela 0–2 Academico Viseu45·24·31
- ✗Guimaraes 1–1 Moreirense55·24·21
- ✗Sporting CP 2–2 Arouca77·15·9
- ✓Alverca 1–0 Rio Ave51·25·24
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 65 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.