Casa Pia vs Santa Clara – 10 Oct 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 8 Sat, Oct 10 · 20:30 Estádio Nacional, Jamor, Oeiras

Casa Pia 17th · 4 pts · 7 played LLDLW

0–1Full time

Santa Clara 4th · 15 pts · 7 played WDWWD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Santa Clara were slight favourites.

Santa Clara were the stronger side on L90 Strength (32 vs 19). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Santa Clara. Casa Pia had 20.1 days of rest, Santa Clara 20.1 and had to travel.

Rest days20.1 · 20.1Matches / 14d0 · 0

Casa Pia29%

Draw26%

Santa Clara45%

Expected goals 1.11 – 1.44

Casa Pia34%

Draw26%

Santa Clara40%

Expected goals 1.28 – 1.40

Casa Pia29%

Draw26%

Santa Clara45%

Expected goals 1.11 – 1.44

Casa Pia23%

Draw25%

Santa Clara52%

Expected goals 0.99 – 1.61

Casa Pia29%

Draw26%

Santa Clara45%

Expected goals 1.15 – 1.48

Over 2.5 47% Both score 51% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Jamor, Oeiras)

No weather data yet

RefereeIancu Ioan Vasilica

Team strength

Casa Pia

Santa Clara

19 L90 StrengthIn forecast 32

18 Current StrengthIn forecast 34

13 AttackIn forecast 29

25 DefenceIn forecast 53

21 Form indexContext 73

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Casa Pia

Attack—

Defense risk—

Santa Clara

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Casa Pia

Santa Clara

0.43 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.57

2.29 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.57

0.59 xGVia Att/Def 1.45

1.56 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.82

-0.16 Goals minus xGContext +0.12

29% Scored inContext 86%

14% Clean sheetsContext 57%

10.29 ShotsContext 13.00

3.17 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.71

26% On target shareContext 29%

6.67 Shots in the boxContext 8.43

59% Box shareContext 63%

4% ConversionContext 12%

1.80 OffsidesContext 1.75

15.43 Shots allowedContext 8.14

5.43 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.43

5.33 BlocksContext 1.71

3.83 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.17

68% Save rateContext 81%

45% PossessionIn forecast 45%

347 PassesContext 362

273 Accurate passesContext 284

79% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.48 Team ratingContext 6.88

11.43 FoulsContext 13.29

13.00 Fouls sufferedContext 13.00

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.43

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

0.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.70

0.94 xGVia Att/Def 1.22

1.37 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.79

-0.34 Goals minus xGContext +0.28

40% Scored inContext 80%

30% Clean sheetsContext 50%

11.10 ShotsContext 12.50

3.78 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.56

31% On target shareContext 26%

7.22 Shots in the boxContext 8.10

60% Box shareContext 63%

5% ConversionContext 12%

1.88 OffsidesContext 1.71

14.70 Shots allowedContext 9.20

4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.90

4.89 BlocksContext 2.10

3.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.56

71% Save rateContext 82%

44% PossessionIn forecast 45%

323 PassesContext 357

249 Accurate passesContext 283

77% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.63 Team ratingContext 6.89

12.60 FoulsContext 12.00

12.70 Fouls sufferedContext 13.10

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Casa Pia LLDLW

Rest20.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 21 · 4 pts vs 7.7 for an average club · -0.5 vs expected

W20 SepA · Estoril2–11.0 xPts
L12 SepH · FC Porto1–40.5 xPts
D6 SepA · Guimaraes0–00.7 xPts
L30 AugH · Moreirense0–11.5 xPts
L24 AugA · GIL Vicente0–20.8 xPts

Santa Clara WDWWD

Rest20.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel—0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 73 · 11 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · +3.9 vs expected

D20 SepH · SC Braga0–01.3 xPts
W13 SepA · Arouca2–11.2 xPts
W6 SepH · Rio Ave4–01.9 xPts
D29 AugA · Alverca1–11.3 xPts
W23 AugH · Famalicao1–01.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Casa Pia	Santa Clara
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	20.1Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 20 Sep	20.1Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 20 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	—
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 1	0 / 0 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	13.8	16

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.

Squad & lineups

Casa Pia Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

95Ivan Mandić(G)

75Pedro Rosas 43David Sousa 3Kaly 18André Geraldes

80L. Ofori 16Silvi

77B. Pauwels 70João Rêgo 11M. El Boukammiri

9Henrique Araújo

Santa Clara Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1Lucas França(G)

5Guilherme Romão 21Emanuel Fernandes 4Pedro Pacheco 42Lucas Soares

20Tiago Ribeiro 6Pedro Ferreira 8José Tavares

10Brenner Lucas Gonçalves Santos 9Gonçalo Paciência 70Vinícius Lopes

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Casa Pia Absences are shown before kick-off

Santa Clara Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Casa Pia+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Santa Clara+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Casa Pia · Home 0.00points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 0-0-3
Scored: 0.33
Conceded: 4.00

Santa Clara · Away 2.33points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 2-1-0
Scored: 1.33
Conceded: 0.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

1 Casa Pia wins2 draws3 Santa Clara wins

Goals per game0.50 – 1.00 Over 2.533% Both scored33% Clean sheets33% · 67%

18 Apr 2026Casa Pia0–0Santa Clara
6 Dec 2025Santa Clara1–0Casa Pia
1 Feb 2025Santa Clara2–1Casa Pia
24 Aug 2024Casa Pia0–2Santa Clara
29 Jan 2023Casa Pia2–1Santa Clara
7 Aug 2022Santa Clara0–0Casa Pia

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Casa Pia	Santa Clara	Forecast
Scored per game	0.43	1.57
Conceded per game	2.29	0.57
Match goals	2.71	2.14	2.54
Over 1.5	57%	57%
Over 2.5	43%	43%	47%
Over 3.5	29%	29%
Both teams scored	29%	43%	51%
Clean sheets	14%	57%
Failed to score	71%	14%
Games	7	7

	Casa Pia	Santa Clara	Forecast
Scored per game	0.50	1.50
Conceded per game	1.80	0.70
Match goals	2.30	2.20	2.54
Over 1.5	50%	60%
Over 2.5	30%	40%	47%
Over 3.5	20%	30%
Both teams scored	30%	40%	51%
Clean sheets	20%	50%
Failed to score	60%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Casa Pia	Santa Clara	League
Corners
Corners won	4.14	3.71
Corners conceded	6.14	5.71
Match total	10.28	9.42	8.65
Over 8.5	43% 3/7	57% 4/7
Over 9.5	43% 3/7	57% 4/7
Over 10.5	43% 3/7	29% 2/7
Cards
Cards	2.14	2.57
Opponent cards	1.71	2.00
Match total	3.85	4.57	4.38
Over 3.5	71% 5/7	71% 5/7
Over 4.5	29% 2/7	29% 2/7

	Casa Pia	Santa Clara	League
Corners
Corners won	4.22	4.10
Corners conceded	6.33	5.90
Match total	10.55	10.00	8.65
Over 8.5	44% 4/9	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	2.50	2.20
Opponent cards	1.60	1.90
Match total	4.10	4.10	4.38
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.