Casa Pia
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Casa Pia15.1%fair odds 6.62
Draw22.2%fair odds 4.50
Sporting CP62.7%fair odds 1.59
Expected goals0.85 – 1.96total 2.81
Likeliest score0–211.5%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Sporting CP
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Casa Pia ↓ · Sporting CP → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 11.3 | 11.5 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 10.6 | 9.8 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Casa Pia goals, columns Sporting CP goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 0–211.5%8.67
- 0–111.3%8.87
- 1–110.6%9.44
- 1–29.8%10.17
- 0–37.5%13.29
- 0–06.6%15.23
- 1–36.4%15.60
- 1–04.6%21.70
- 2–14.3%23.35
- 2–24.2%23.87
Winning margin
1.1%
Casa Pia by 3+
fair 87.26
3.7%
Casa Pia by 2
fair 27.10
10.3%
Casa Pia by 1
fair 9.75
22.2%
Draw
fair 4.50
24.2%
Sporting CP by 1
fair 4.12
19.4%
Sporting CP by 2
fair 5.14
19.0%
Sporting CP by 3+
fair 5.26
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
15%5+
Casa Pia goals
43%0
36%1
15%2
4%3
1%4+
Sporting CP goals
14%0
28%1
27%2
18%3
13%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia win | 15.1% | 15.4% | -0.3 pp |
| Draw | 22.2% | 21.8% | +0.4 pp |
| Sporting CP win | 62.7% | 62.9% | -0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 53.2% | 55.5% | -2.3 pp |
| Both teams score | 49.8% | 51.7% | -1.9 pp |
| Expected goals Casa Pia | 0.85 | 0.89 | -0.04 |
| Expected goals Sporting CP | 1.96 | 2.01 | -0.06 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Casa Pia win15.1%6.62
- Draw22.2%4.50
- Sporting CP win62.7%1.59
- Double chance Casa Pia or draw37.3%2.68
- Double chance Casa Pia or Sporting CP77.8%1.29
- Double chance Sporting CP or draw84.9%1.18
- Draw no bet Casa Pia19.4%5.15
- Draw no bet Sporting CP80.6%1.24
Goals
- Over 0.593.4%1.07
- Over 1.577.6%1.29
- Over 2.553.2%1.88
- Over 3.531.0%3.23
- Over 4.515.4%6.51
- Under 1.522.4%4.46
- Under 2.546.8%2.14
- Under 3.569.0%1.45
Both teams to score
- Yes49.8%2.01
- No50.2%1.99
- Yes and over 2.539.2%2.55
- Casa Pia win and yes7.5%13.30
- Draw and yes15.6%6.39
- Sporting CP win and yes26.6%3.76
Team goals
- Casa Pia over 0.557.3%1.74
- Casa Pia over 1.521.0%4.76
- Casa Pia over 2.55.5%18.12
- Sporting CP over 0.585.9%1.16
- Sporting CP over 1.558.2%1.72
- Sporting CP over 2.531.1%3.21
- Casa Pia clean sheet14.1%7.07
- Sporting CP clean sheet42.7%2.34
- Casa Pia win to nil7.6%13.19
- Sporting CP win to nil36.1%2.77
Handicap
- Casa Pia −1.54.8%20.68
- Casa Pia −2.51.1%87.26
- Sporting CP +1.595.2%1.05
- Sporting CP +2.598.9%1.01
- Sporting CP −1.538.5%2.60
- Casa Pia +1.561.5%1.62
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Primeira Liga 2025-2026
No finished matches with a forecast in this competition yet.