Casa Pia vs Sporting CP – 8 Aug 2025

Primeira Liga Gameweek 1 Fri, Aug 8 · 20:15 Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Rio Maior

Casa Pia

0–2Full time

Sporting CP

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Sporting CP were clear favourites.

Sporting CP were the stronger side on L90 Strength (79 vs 27). Casa Pia had ? days of rest, Sporting CP ? and had to travel 70 km.

Away travel70 kmMatches / 14d0 · 0

Casa Pia15%

Draw22%

Sporting CP63%

Expected goals 0.85 – 1.96

Casa Pia15%

Draw22%

Sporting CP63%

Expected goals 0.89 – 2.01

Casa Pia15%

Draw22%

Sporting CP63%

Expected goals 0.85 – 1.96

Casa Pia11%

Draw19%

Sporting CP70%

Expected goals 0.76 – 2.19

Casa Pia15%

Draw22%

Sporting CP63%

Expected goals 0.89 – 2.01

Over 2.5 53% Both score 50% Likeliest score 0–2

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Rio Maior)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalGustavo Correia

Cards per match 6.3
Penalties per match 0.41
Matches 54

Team strength

Casa Pia

Sporting CP

27 L90 StrengthIn forecast 79

18 Current StrengthIn forecast 83

13 AttackIn forecast 75

25 DefenceIn forecast 81

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Casa Pia

Attack—

Defense risk—

Sporting CP

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Casa Pia

Sporting CP

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

0.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.40

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.60

0.73 xGVia Att/Def 1.94

1.52 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.61

+0.17 Goals minus xGContext +0.46

70% Scored inContext 100%

20% Clean sheetsContext 40%

6.60 ShotsContext 15.10

2.88 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.70

35% On target shareContext 44%

4.38 Shots in the boxContext 10.00

59% Box shareContext 62%

14% ConversionContext 16%

2.43 OffsidesContext 1.50

13.70 Shots allowedContext 7.40

4.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.00

3.60 BlocksContext 2.88

2.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.80

64% Save rateContext 75%

49% PossessionIn forecast 57%

354 PassesContext 466

278 Accurate passesContext 398

78% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.84 Team ratingContext 7.21

14.30 FoulsContext 12.30

13.60 Fouls sufferedContext 15.90

2.80 Yellow cardsContext 2.70

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Casa Pia

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel—0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Sporting CP

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel70 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Casa Pia	Sporting CP
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	—	—
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	—	70 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	6.8	9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.

Squad & lineups

Casa Pia Confirmed XI

5-4-1

1P. Sequeira(G)

12F. Benaissa-Yahia 2D. Tchamba 6José Fonte 4João Goulart 72Gaizka Larrazabal

7K. Nsona 8Rafael Brito 20Y. Oukili 29J. Livolant

90Cassiano

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Sporting CP Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Rui Silva(G)

20M. Araújo 25G. Inácio 26O. Diomande 22Iván Fresneda

5H. Morita 42M. Hjulmand

8Pote 17Trincão 10Geny Catamo

97L. Suárez

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Casa Pia Absences are shown before kick-off

Sporting CP Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Casa Pia+0.1 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
Sporting CP-0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Casa Pia · Home No home games yet this season.

Sporting CP · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

0 Casa Pia wins0 draws6 Sporting CP wins

Goals per game1.00 – 3.67 Over 2.583% Both scored67% Clean sheets0% · 33%

9 Mar 2025Casa Pia1–3Sporting CP
5 Oct 2024Sporting CP2–0Casa Pia
29 Jan 2024Sporting CP8–0Casa Pia
18 Aug 2023Casa Pia1–2Sporting CP
9 Apr 2023Casa Pia3–4Sporting CP
22 Oct 2022Sporting CP3–1Casa Pia

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Casa Pia	Sporting CP	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.81
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	53%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	50%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Casa Pia	Sporting CP	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.81
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	53%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	50%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Casa Pia	Sporting CP
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Casa Pia	Sporting CP
Corners
Corners won	4.11	5.22
Corners conceded	5.67	3.11
Match total	9.78	8.33
Over 8.5	33% 3/9	22% 2/9
Over 9.5	33% 3/9	22% 2/9
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	3.00	2.80
Opponent cards	2.50	3.80
Match total	5.50	6.60
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	100% 10/10
Over 4.5	70% 7/10	90% 9/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Gustavo Correia Portugal · 54 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.91

Red cards0.43

Cards 5+72%

Fouls29.3

Penalties0.41

Home wins43%

Casa Pia4 with this referee

Record2-1-1 Cards · opp.4.3 · 3.0 Pens for · against1 · 1 Reds1

D22 Sep 24A · GIL Vicente1–15
W2 Dec 23H · Portimonense1–03
L25 Feb 23A · Arouca0–24
W29 Jan 23H · Santa Clara2–15

Sporting CP2 with this referee

Record2-0-0 Cards · opp.1.5 · 6.0 Pens for · against2 · 0

W29 Mar 25A · Estrela3–01
W4 Mar 23A · Portimonense1–02

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.