Celta Vigo vs Atletico Madrid – 5 Oct 2025

La Liga Gameweek 8 Sun, Oct 5 · 20:00 Abanca-Balaídos, Vigo

Celta Vigo 18th · 5 pts · 7 played DDDDL

1–1Full time

Atletico Madrid 8th · 12 pts · 7 played DWDWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Atletico Madrid were slight favourites.

Atletico Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (83 vs 52). Absences weigh more on Celta Vigo. Celta Vigo had 3 days of rest, Atletico Madrid 8.2 and had to travel 465 km.

Away travel465 kmRest days3 · 8.2Matches / 14d3 · 2

Celta Vigo23%

Draw26%

Atletico Madrid52%

Expected goals 1.02 – 1.66

Celta Vigo23%

Draw25%

Atletico Madrid51%

Expected goals 1.07 – 1.68

Celta Vigo23%

Draw26%

Atletico Madrid50%

Expected goals 1.01 – 1.60

Celta Vigo17%

Draw23%

Atletico Madrid59%

Expected goals 0.91 – 1.86

Celta Vigo23%

Draw25%

Atletico Madrid52%

Expected goals 1.07 – 1.74

Over 2.5 50% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Vigo)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainCesar Soto Grado

Cards per match 5.2
Penalties per match 0.21
Matches 28

Team strength

Celta Vigo

Atletico Madrid

52 L90 StrengthIn forecast 83

51 Current StrengthIn forecast 80

36 AttackIn forecast 82

61 DefenceIn forecast 87

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Celta Vigo

Attack—

Defense risk—

Atletico Madrid

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Celta Vigo

Atletico Madrid

0.86 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00

1.29 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.29

0.93 xGVia Att/Def 1.69

1.24 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.80

-0.07 Goals minus xGContext +0.31

86% Scored inContext 100%

0% Clean sheetsContext 14%

11.29 ShotsContext 13.14

3.71 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.86

33% On target shareContext 45%

7.29 Shots in the boxContext 9.00

64% Box shareContext 67%

8% ConversionContext 15%

2.75 OffsidesContext 1.57

11.57 Shots allowedContext 7.29

4.71 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.57

2.71 BlocksContext 1.80

4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.50

77% Save rateContext 56%

53% PossessionIn forecast 57%

506 PassesContext 533

439 Accurate passesContext 463

87% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.83 Team ratingContext 6.83

12.14 FoulsContext 11.43

10.71 Fouls sufferedContext 11.86

1.71 Yellow cardsContext 2.43

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.14

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.50

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.07 xGVia Att/Def 1.96

1.14 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.83

+0.13 Goals minus xGContext +0.54

90% Scored inContext 100%

0% Clean sheetsContext 20%

11.70 ShotsContext 13.80

4.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.70

38% On target shareContext 49%

7.70 Shots in the boxContext 9.40

65% Box shareContext 67%

10% ConversionContext 18%

2.14 OffsidesContext 1.70

11.10 Shots allowedContext 7.90

4.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.70

3.20 BlocksContext 2.57

3.63 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.56

74% Save rateContext 56%

54% PossessionIn forecast 55%

517 PassesContext 528

449 Accurate passesContext 461

87% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.90 Team ratingContext 6.94

11.70 FoulsContext 11.10

11.10 Fouls sufferedContext 10.90

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Celta Vigo

Rest3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km4,758 km in 14d

Schedule load33%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Atletico Madrid

Rest8.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel465 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Celta Vigo	Atletico Madrid
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 33	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 2 Oct	8.2La Liga 2025-2026, 27 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	465 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	4,758 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 5	0 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	13.8	13

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Celta Vigo Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

13I. Radu(G)

20Marcos Alonso 2C. Starfelt 32Javi Rodríguez

5Sergio Carreira 8Fran Beltrán 14Damián Rodríguez 3Óscar Mingueza

19W. Swedberg 9Ferran Jutglà

7Borja Iglesias

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Atletico Madrid Confirmed XI

4-4-2

13J. Oblak(G)

17D. Hancko 15C. Lenglet 24R. Le Normand 14Marcos Llorente

23N. González 6Koke 8Pablo Barrios 20G. Simeone

19J. Alvarez 7A. Griezmann

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Celta Vigo Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Atletico Madrid Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Celta Vigo-0.7 pp
Draw-0.6 pp
Atletico Madrid+1.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Celta Vigo · Home 0.75points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 0-3-1
Scored: 0.75
Conceded: 1.25

Atletico Madrid · Away 0.67points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 0-2-1
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

Opponent	Celta Vigo	Atletico Madrid
Elche	L 1–2 A	D 1–1 H
Rayo Vallecano	D 1–1 A	W 3–2 H
Villarreal	D 1–1 H	W 2–0 H
Mallorca	D 1–1 A	D 1–1 A
Points	3 of 12 · 0.75 per game	8 of 12 · 2.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

0 Celta Vigo wins2 draws8 Atletico Madrid wins

Goals per game0.50 – 1.90 Over 2.540% Both scored40% Clean sheets0% · 60%

15 Feb 2025Atletico Madrid1–1Celta Vigo
26 Sep 2024Celta Vigo0–1Atletico Madrid
12 May 2024Atletico Madrid1–0Celta Vigo
21 Oct 2023Celta Vigo0–3Atletico Madrid
12 Feb 2023Celta Vigo0–1Atletico Madrid
10 Sep 2022Atletico Madrid4–1Celta Vigo

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Celta Vigo	Atletico Madrid	Forecast
Scored per game	0.86	2.00
Conceded per game	1.29	1.29
Match goals	2.14	3.29	2.68
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	14%	43%	50%
Over 3.5	0%	29%
Both teams scored	86%	86%	52%
Clean sheets	0%	14%
Failed to score	14%	0%
Games	7	7

	Celta Vigo	Atletico Madrid	Forecast
Scored per game	1.11	2.00
Conceded per game	1.33	1.29
Match goals	2.44	3.29	2.68
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	33%	43%	50%
Over 3.5	11%	29%
Both teams scored	89%	86%	52%
Clean sheets	0%	14%
Failed to score	11%	0%
Games	9	7

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Celta Vigo	Atletico Madrid	League
Corners
Corners won	5.86	6.86
Corners conceded	4.14	2.57
Match total	10.00	9.43	9.82
Over 8.5	71% 5/7	71% 5/7
Over 9.5	57% 4/7	43% 3/7
Over 10.5	43% 3/7	43% 3/7
Cards
Cards	1.71	2.57
Opponent cards	2.14	2.86
Match total	3.85	5.43	4.38
Over 3.5	43% 3/7	86% 6/7
Over 4.5	43% 3/7	71% 5/7

	Celta Vigo	Atletico Madrid	League
Corners
Corners won	5.40	6.70
Corners conceded	4.10	2.80
Match total	9.50	9.50	9.82
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	2.10	2.30
Opponent cards	2.30	2.20
Match total	4.40	4.50	4.38
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Cesar Soto Grado Spain · 28 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.93league 4.11

Red cards0.25league 0.28

Cards 5+64%league 47%

Fouls24.3league 24.5

Penalties0.21league 0.33

Home wins46%league 49%

Celta Vigo4 with this referee

Record1-2-1 Cards · opp.4.0 · 2.3 Pens for · against1 · 1 Reds1

W5 May 24H · Villarreal3–24
L20 Dec 23A · Villarreal2–34
D25 Nov 23A · Valencia0–02
D28 Sep 23H · Alaves1–16

Atletico Madrid4 with this referee

Record3-1-0 Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.8 Pens for · against1 · 0 Reds1

D23 Aug 25H · Elche1–11
W3 Mar 24H · Real Betis2–11
W31 Jan 24H · Rayo Vallecano2–10
W23 Dec 23H · Sevilla1–08

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.