Celta Vigo
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Celta Vigo45.5%fair odds 2.20
Draw25.7%fair odds 3.90
Bologna28.8%fair odds 3.47
Expected goals1.62 – 1.25total 2.87
Likeliest score1–112.1%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Bologna
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Celta Vigo ↓ · Bologna → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 6.5 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.1 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.3 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Celta Vigo goals, columns Bologna goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.1%8.28
- 2–19.3%10.74
- 1–08.6%11.64
- 2–07.5%13.40
- 1–27.2%13.97
- 0–16.5%15.47
- 0–06.3%15.93
- 2–25.8%17.22
- 3–15.0%19.86
- 0–24.4%22.66
Winning margin
9.9%
Celta Vigo by 3+
fair 10.05
14.0%
Celta Vigo by 2
fair 7.16
21.6%
Celta Vigo by 1
fair 4.62
25.7%
Draw
fair 3.90
16.5%
Bologna by 1
fair 6.06
8.3%
Bologna by 2
fair 12.11
4.1%
Bologna by 3+
fair 24.58
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
16%5+
Celta Vigo goals
20%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
8%4+
Bologna goals
29%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
4%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo win | 45.5% | 45.4% | +0.2 pp |
| Draw | 25.7% | 26.3% | -0.7 pp |
| Bologna win | 28.8% | 28.3% | +0.5 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 54.7% | 51.7% | +3.0 pp |
| Both teams score | 57.8% | 55.4% | +2.4 pp |
| Expected goals Celta Vigo | 1.62 | 1.56 | +0.06 |
| Expected goals Bologna | 1.25 | 1.18 | +0.06 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Celta Vigo win45.5%2.20
- Draw25.7%3.90
- Bologna win28.8%3.47
- Double chance Celta Vigo or draw71.2%1.40
- Double chance Celta Vigo or Bologna74.3%1.35
- Double chance Bologna or draw54.5%1.84
- Draw no bet Celta Vigo61.2%1.63
- Draw no bet Bologna38.8%2.58
Goals
- Over 0.593.7%1.07
- Over 1.578.7%1.27
- Over 2.554.7%1.83
- Over 3.532.4%3.09
- Over 4.516.3%6.12
- Under 1.521.3%4.69
- Under 2.545.3%2.21
- Under 3.567.6%1.48
Both teams to score
- Yes57.8%1.73
- No42.2%2.37
- Yes and over 2.545.7%2.19
- Celta Vigo win and yes23.1%4.33
- Draw and yes19.4%5.16
- Bologna win and yes15.4%6.51
Team goals
- Celta Vigo over 0.580.3%1.25
- Celta Vigo over 1.548.2%2.07
- Celta Vigo over 2.522.2%4.49
- Bologna over 0.571.3%1.40
- Bologna over 1.535.5%2.82
- Bologna over 2.513.1%7.63
- Celta Vigo clean sheet28.7%3.48
- Bologna clean sheet19.7%5.07
- Celta Vigo win to nil22.4%4.46
- Bologna win to nil13.5%7.43
Handicap
- Celta Vigo −1.523.9%4.18
- Celta Vigo −2.59.9%10.05
- Bologna +1.576.1%1.31
- Bologna +2.590.1%1.11
- Bologna −1.512.3%8.11
- Celta Vigo +1.587.7%1.14
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record UEFA Europa League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored99
Favourite won58.6%
Avg chance given to result41.6%
1X2 Brier0.561
Over 2.5 called right53.5%
BTTS called right50.5%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 11 | 38.5% | 45.5% |
| 40–50% | 40 | 44.7% | 47.5% |
| 50–60% | 35 | 54.6% | 74.3% |
| 60–70% | 9 | 66.2% | 44.4% |
| 70–80% | 3 | 73.7% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 82.7% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 81 of 99 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5545 | 0.5440 |
| Avg chance given to result | 42.1% | 43.7% |
| Favourite won | 59.3% | 64.2% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 81 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✓Ferencvarosi TC 2–1 Rangers49·25·26
- ✓Sturm Graz 0–1 FK Crvena Zvezda36·27·37
- ✓Dinamo Zagreb 1–3 Real Betis33·26·41
- ✗Ludogorets 3–3 PAOK26·25·48
- ✗BSC Young Boys 1–0 Lille32·26·41
- ✓FC Midtjylland 1–0 Genk53·24·23
- ✓Utrecht 1–2 Nottingham Forest33·27·41
- ✓VfB Stuttgart 4–1 Maccabi Tel Aviv76·16·9
- ✓Nice 0–1 SC Braga25·25·50
- ✓Genk 2–1 FC Basel 189339·26·35
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 99 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.