Celta Vigo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Celta Vigo were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Bologna. Celta Vigo had 4 days of rest, Bologna 4.1 and had to travel 1,637 km.
Away travel1,637 kmRest days4 · 4.1Matches / 14d2 · 3
Celta Vigo46%
Draw26%
Bologna29%
Celta Vigo44%
Draw27%
Bologna29%
Celta Vigo44%
Draw26%
Bologna30%
Celta Vigo38%
Draw26%
Bologna36%
Celta Vigo45%
Draw26%
Bologna28%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Vigo)
No weather data yet
Referee · RomaniaRadu Marian Petrescu
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 6
Team strength
Celta Vigo
Bologna
61
L90 StrengthIn forecast
60
51
Current StrengthIn forecast
47
36
AttackIn forecast
35
61
DefenceIn forecast
48
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBologna
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Celta VigoBologna
2.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.49
xGVia Att/Def
1.65
1.39
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.21
+0.71
Goals minus xGContext
-0.25
100%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
14.40
ShotsContext
18.20
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.60
35%
On target shareContext
36%
10.00
Shots in the boxContext
13.20
70%
Box shareContext
69%
15%
ConversionContext
8%
2.25
OffsidesContext
3.20
10.00
Shots allowedContext
10.00
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
3.40
BlocksContext
2.50
2.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.75
65%
Save rateContext
75%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
520
PassesContext
408
457
Accurate passesContext
337
88%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.85
Team ratingContext
7.02
14.00
FoulsContext
12.80
8.40
Fouls sufferedContext
14.20
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.27
xGVia Att/Def
1.68
1.62
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.17
+0.53
Goals minus xGContext
+0.12
90%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
11.10
ShotsContext
16.30
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.30
37%
On target shareContext
33%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
11.40
59%
Box shareContext
67%
16%
ConversionContext
11%
2.63
OffsidesContext
2.63
12.40
Shots allowedContext
10.00
4.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.11
3.44
BlocksContext
2.67
3.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.38
74%
Save rateContext
75%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
480
PassesContext
421
412
Accurate passesContext
350
86%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.95
13.20
FoulsContext
13.90
10.90
Fouls sufferedContext
14.50
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Celta Vigo
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km930 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Bologna
Rest4.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel1,637 km609 km in 14d
Schedule load35%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Celta Vigo |
Bologna |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 35 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4La Liga 2025-2026, 7 Dec | 4.1Serie A 2025-2026, 7 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,637 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 930 km | 609 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 3 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 2.8 | 3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Celta Vigo
Confirmed XI
13I. Radu(G)
21M. Ristić
2C. Starfelt
32Javi Rodríguez
3Óscar Mingueza
6I. Moriba
8Fran Beltrán
5Sergio Carreira
15Bryan Zaragoza
7Borja Iglesias
19W. Swedberg
Bologna
Confirmed XI
13F. Ravaglia(G)
33Juan Miranda
22C. Lykogiannis
14T. Heggem
2E. Holm
4T. Pobega
6N. Moro
11J. Rowe
80G. Fabbian
10F. Bernardeschi
9S. Castro
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Celta Vigo
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Bologna
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Celta Vigo+1.1 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Bologna-0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Celta Vigo · Home
3.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 2.50
- Conceded
- 1.00
Bologna · Away
1.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Celta Vigo | Bologna | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.20 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 3.60 | 2.20 | 2.87 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 40% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 40% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Celta Vigo | Bologna | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 2.70 | 2.87 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Celta Vigo | Bologna | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.60 | 6.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.40 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 11.40 | 8.97 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 2/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 1/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 1/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 5.00 | 4.32 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 4/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 2/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Celta Vigo | Bologna | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.20 | 6.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.70 | 4.40 | |
| Match total | 7.90 | 10.60 | 8.97 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 10% 1/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 4.90 | 4.32 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Radu Marian Petrescu Romania · 6 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.67league 4.13
Red cards0.17league 0.19
Cards 5+33%league 42%
Fouls27.2league 24.7
Penalties0.33league 0.36
Home wins33%league 51%
Celta VigoNo previous matches with this referee.
BolognaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Celta Vigo5 games · scored 11 · conceded 7
2
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
76-90
Bologna5 games · scored 7 · conceded 4
2
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Celta Vigo10 games · scored 18 · conceded 13
3
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
4
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
3
61-75
4
2
76-90
Bologna10 games · scored 18 · conceded 9
2
1
0-15
3
16-30
2
4
31-45
6
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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