Celta Vigo
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Celta Vigo47.6%fair odds 2.10
Draw27.3%fair odds 3.66
Espanyol25.1%fair odds 3.99
Expected goals1.49 – 1.02total 2.51
Likeliest score1–113.0%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Espanyol
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Celta Vigo ↓ · Espanyol → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.0 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Celta Vigo goals, columns Espanyol goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.0%7.70
- 1–011.5%8.69
- 2–19.2%10.86
- 2–09.1%11.02
- 0–08.8%11.37
- 0–17.6%13.14
- 1–26.3%15.97
- 2–24.7%21.39
- 3–14.6%21.82
- 3–04.5%22.14
Winning margin
9.6%
Celta Vigo by 3+
fair 10.40
14.6%
Celta Vigo by 2
fair 6.84
23.4%
Celta Vigo by 1
fair 4.28
27.3%
Draw
fair 3.66
15.7%
Espanyol by 1
fair 6.38
6.8%
Espanyol by 2
fair 14.80
2.6%
Espanyol by 3+
fair 37.86
Goal distribution
Total goals
9%0
19%1
26%2
21%3
13%4
11%5+
Celta Vigo goals
22%0
34%1
25%2
12%3
6%4+
Espanyol goals
36%0
37%1
19%2
6%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo win | 47.6% | 48.2% | -0.7 pp |
| Draw | 27.3% | 26.0% | +1.4 pp |
| Espanyol win | 25.1% | 25.8% | -0.7 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 45.8% | 51.5% | -5.7 pp |
| Both teams score | 50.1% | 54.6% | -4.5 pp |
| Expected goals Celta Vigo | 1.49 | 1.62 | -0.12 |
| Expected goals Espanyol | 1.02 | 1.12 | -0.11 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Celta Vigo win47.6%2.10
- Draw27.3%3.66
- Espanyol win25.1%3.99
- Double chance Celta Vigo or draw74.9%1.33
- Double chance Celta Vigo or Espanyol72.7%1.38
- Double chance Espanyol or draw52.4%1.91
- Draw no bet Celta Vigo65.5%1.53
- Draw no bet Espanyol34.5%2.90
Goals
- Over 0.591.2%1.10
- Over 1.572.1%1.39
- Over 2.545.8%2.18
- Over 3.524.4%4.10
- Over 4.511.0%9.10
- Under 1.527.9%3.58
- Under 2.554.2%1.85
- Under 3.575.6%1.32
Both teams to score
- Yes50.1%2.00
- No49.9%2.00
- Yes and over 2.537.1%2.70
- Celta Vigo win and yes20.2%4.96
- Draw and yes18.5%5.40
- Espanyol win and yes11.4%8.77
Team goals
- Celta Vigo over 0.577.5%1.29
- Celta Vigo over 1.544.0%2.27
- Celta Vigo over 2.518.9%5.28
- Espanyol over 0.563.8%1.57
- Espanyol over 1.527.0%3.71
- Espanyol over 2.58.3%12.04
- Celta Vigo clean sheet36.2%2.76
- Espanyol clean sheet22.5%4.45
- Celta Vigo win to nil27.4%3.64
- Espanyol win to nil13.7%7.31
Handicap
- Celta Vigo −1.524.2%4.13
- Celta Vigo −2.59.6%10.40
- Espanyol +1.575.8%1.32
- Espanyol +2.590.4%1.11
- Espanyol −1.59.4%10.64
- Celta Vigo +1.590.6%1.10
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record La Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored137
Favourite won56.2%
Avg chance given to result42.4%
1X2 Brier0.555
Over 2.5 called right60.6%
BTTS called right55.5%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 19 | 37.7% | 42.1% |
| 40–50% | 61 | 44.0% | 47.5% |
| 50–60% | 24 | 54.1% | 58.3% |
| 60–70% | 18 | 64.2% | 66.7% |
| 70–80% | 13 | 75.0% | 92.3% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 81.2% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 106 of 137 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5483 | 0.5423 |
| Avg chance given to result | 42.7% | 43.5% |
| Favourite won | 58.5% | 59.4% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 106 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 137 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.