Celta Vigo vs Espanyol – 30 Nov 2025

La Liga Gameweek 14 Sun, Nov 30 · 17:30 Abanca-Balaídos, Vigo

Celta Vigo 10th · 16 pts · 13 played DWWLW

0–1Full time

Espanyol 6th · 21 pts · 13 played WWLLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Celta Vigo were slight favourites.

Celta Vigo were the stronger side on L90 Strength (59 vs 51). Celta Vigo had 3 days of rest, Espanyol 5.9 and had to travel 901 km.

Away travel901 kmRest days3 · 5.9Matches / 14d2 · 1

Celta Vigo48%

Draw27%

Espanyol25%

Expected goals 1.49 – 1.02

Celta Vigo49%

Draw26%

Espanyol25%

Expected goals 1.62 – 1.11

Celta Vigo48%

Draw27%

Espanyol25%

Expected goals 1.49 – 1.00

Celta Vigo40%

Draw28%

Espanyol31%

Expected goals 1.33 – 1.14

Celta Vigo48%

Draw26%

Espanyol26%

Expected goals 1.62 – 1.12

Over 2.5 46% Both score 50% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Vigo)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainIsidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos

Cards per match 4.9
Penalties per match 0.31
Matches 29

Team strength

Celta Vigo

Espanyol

59 L90 StrengthIn forecast 51

54 Current StrengthIn forecast 44

36 AttackIn forecast 36

61 DefenceIn forecast 51

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Celta Vigo

Attack—

Defense risk—

Espanyol

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Celta Vigo

Espanyol

1.23 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.31

1.38 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.23

1.18 xGVia Att/Def 1.57

1.37 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.22

+0.05 Goals minus xGContext -0.26

92% Scored inContext 77%

8% Clean sheetsContext 31%

10.92 ShotsContext 13.38

3.69 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.69

34% On target shareContext 35%

6.62 Shots in the boxContext 8.69

57% Box shareContext 65%

11% ConversionContext 10%

2.89 OffsidesContext 2.00

11.77 Shots allowedContext 12.92

4.77 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.46

3.00 BlocksContext 3.62

3.75 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.58

75% Save rateContext 77%

51% PossessionIn forecast 41%

502 PassesContext 356

432 Accurate passesContext 288

86% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.84 Team ratingContext 6.84

11.69 FoulsContext 13.69

11.85 Fouls sufferedContext 11.23

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.85

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.08

This league season, per match · 13 and 13 games

2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.57 xGVia Att/Def 1.63

1.46 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.27

+0.43 Goals minus xGContext -0.43

100% Scored inContext 70%

20% Clean sheetsContext 30%

12.70 ShotsContext 14.10

4.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.90

36% On target shareContext 35%

8.00 Shots in the boxContext 9.50

59% Box shareContext 68%

16% ConversionContext 9%

2.88 OffsidesContext 2.20

10.30 Shots allowedContext 12.90

4.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.40

2.89 BlocksContext 3.70

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.56

70% Save rateContext 76%

51% PossessionIn forecast 42%

517 PassesContext 354

449 Accurate passesContext 288

87% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.84 Team ratingContext 6.83

12.40 FoulsContext 13.60

10.90 Fouls sufferedContext 10.50

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Celta Vigo

Rest3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km6,707 km in 14d

Schedule load18%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Espanyol

Rest5.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel901 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Celta Vigo	Espanyol
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 18	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 27 Nov	5.9La Liga 2025-2026, 24 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	901 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	6,707 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	7.1	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Celta Vigo Confirmed XI

3-4-3

13I. Radu(G)

20Marcos Alonso 2C. Starfelt 32Javi Rodríguez

5Sergio Carreira 16Miguel Román 8Fran Beltrán 17Javi Rueda

15Bryan Zaragoza 7Borja Iglesias 10Iago Aspas

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Espanyol Confirmed XI

4-4-2

13M. Dmitrović(G)

22Carlos Romero 6L. Cabrera 5F. Calero Villa 23O. El Hilali

14Ramon Terrats 4Urko González 10Pol Lozano 24T. Dolan

9R. Fernández Jaén 11Pere Milla

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Celta Vigo Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Espanyol Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Celta Vigo-0.4 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Espanyol+0.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Celta Vigo · Home 0.71points per game · 7 home games

W-D-L: 0-5-2
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.57

Espanyol · Away 1.00points per game · 5 away games

W-D-L: 1-2-2
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.20

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 9 this season

Opponent	Celta Vigo	Espanyol
Alaves	W 1–0 A	L 1–2 A
Osasuna	W 3–2 A	W 1–0 H
Real Sociedad	D 1–1 H	D 2–2 A
Atletico Madrid	D 1–1 H	W 2–1 H
Elche	L 1–2 A	W 1–0 H
Girona	D 1–1 H	D 0–0 A
Villarreal	D 1–1 H	L 0–2 H
Real Betis	D 1–1 H	L 1–2 H
Mallorca	D 1–1 A	W 3–2 H
Points	12 of 27 · 1.33 per game	14 of 27 · 1.56 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

2 Celta Vigo wins1 draws3 Espanyol wins

Goals per game1.50 – 1.67 Over 2.567% Both scored67% Clean sheets0% · 33%

12 Apr 2025Celta Vigo0–2Espanyol
30 Nov 2024Espanyol3–1Celta Vigo
18 Mar 2023Espanyol1–3Celta Vigo
13 Aug 2022Celta Vigo2–2Espanyol
10 Apr 2022Espanyol1–0Celta Vigo
17 Dec 2021Celta Vigo3–1Espanyol

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Celta Vigo	Espanyol	Forecast
Scored per game	1.23	1.31
Conceded per game	1.38	1.23
Match goals	2.62	2.54	2.51
Over 1.5	92%	77%
Over 2.5	31%	54%	46%
Over 3.5	15%	23%
Both teams scored	85%	54%	50%
Clean sheets	8%	31%
Failed to score	8%	23%
Games	13	13

	Celta Vigo	Espanyol	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	1.20
Conceded per game	1.40	1.30
Match goals	3.40	2.50	2.51
Over 1.5	90%	80%
Over 2.5	70%	50%	46%
Over 3.5	40%	20%
Both teams scored	80%	50%	50%
Clean sheets	20%	30%
Failed to score	0%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Celta Vigo	Espanyol	League
Corners
Corners won	4.46	4.23
Corners conceded	4.69	4.69
Match total	9.15	8.92	9.71
Over 8.5	54% 7/13	38% 5/13
Over 9.5	38% 5/13	38% 5/13
Over 10.5	31% 4/13	38% 5/13
Cards
Cards	2.08	1.92
Opponent cards	2.62	2.31
Match total	4.70	4.23	4.34
Over 3.5	69% 9/13	69% 9/13
Over 4.5	54% 7/13	54% 7/13

	Celta Vigo	Espanyol	League
Corners
Corners won	3.80	5.00
Corners conceded	4.00	5.00
Match total	7.80	10.00	9.71
Over 8.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	10% 1/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	10% 1/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	2.20	1.80
Opponent cards	2.60	2.20
Match total	4.80	4.00	4.34
Over 3.5	90% 9/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos Spain · 29 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.59league 4.10

Red cards0.28league 0.27

Cards 5+62%league 47%

Fouls27.3league 24.6

Penalties0.31league 0.33

Home wins31%league 47%

Celta Vigo2 with this referee

Record0-0-2 Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 1

L27 Oct 23A · Girona0–12
L25 Aug 23H · Real Madrid0–12

Espanyol

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.