Celta Vigo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Real Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (88 vs 66). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Celta Vigo. Celta Vigo had 5 days of rest, Real Madrid 4 and had to travel 465 km.
Away travel465 kmRest days5 · 4Matches / 14d3 · 2
Celta Vigo33%
Draw29%
Real Madrid38%
Celta Vigo26%
Draw26%
Real Madrid48%
Celta Vigo32%
Draw29%
Real Madrid39%
Celta Vigo27%
Draw28%
Real Madrid45%
Celta Vigo34%
Draw28%
Real Madrid38%
Over 2.5 45%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Vigo)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainIsidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos
- Cards per match 5.0
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 36
Team strength
Celta Vigo
Real Madrid
66
L90 StrengthIn forecast
88
54
Current StrengthIn forecast
89
36
AttackIn forecast
89
61
DefenceIn forecast
85
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisReal Madrid
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Celta VigoReal Madrid
1.38
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.08
1.08
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.85
1.28
xGVia Att/Def
2.09
1.16
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.03
+0.10
Goals minus xGContext
-0.01
85%
Scored inContext
88%
31%
Clean sheetsContext
42%
10.65
ShotsContext
17.88
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.73
38%
On target shareContext
38%
6.73
Shots in the boxContext
11.27
62%
Box shareContext
63%
13%
ConversionContext
12%
2.53
OffsidesContext
2.10
11.46
Shots allowedContext
9.81
4.16
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.32
3.38
BlocksContext
3.29
3.35
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.27
77%
Save rateContext
69%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
490
PassesContext
577
422
Accurate passesContext
518
86%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.84
Team ratingContext
7.13
11.19
FoulsContext
10.35
11.54
Fouls sufferedContext
13.12
1.73
Yellow cardsContext
1.73
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.08
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.20
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.33
xGVia Att/Def
1.78
0.74
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.26
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.42
90%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.10
ShotsContext
15.30
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.60
40%
On target shareContext
37%
7.20
Shots in the boxContext
10.90
64%
Box shareContext
70%
13%
ConversionContext
14%
2.38
OffsidesContext
2.33
9.00
Shots allowedContext
12.10
3.25
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.33
BlocksContext
4.10
2.14
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
63%
Save rateContext
75%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
482
PassesContext
575
418
Accurate passesContext
516
87%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.78
Team ratingContext
7.10
11.10
FoulsContext
10.60
10.30
Fouls sufferedContext
12.90
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Celta Vigo
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km1,905 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Real Madrid
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel465 km634 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Celta Vigo |
Real Madrid |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 20 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5La Liga 2025-2026, 1 Mar | 4La Liga 2025-2026, 2 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 465 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,905 km | 634 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 6 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Celta Vigo
Confirmed XI
13I. Radu(G)
20Marcos Alonso
2C. Starfelt
32Javi Rodríguez
3Óscar Mingueza
6I. Moriba
16Miguel Román
5Sergio Carreira
19W. Swedberg
7Borja Iglesias
9Ferran Jutglà
Real Madrid
Confirmed XI
1T. Courtois(G)
23F. Mendy
22A. Rüdiger
17Raúl Asencio
12T. Alexander-Arnold
45Thiago Pitarch
14A. Tchouaméni
15A. Güler
8F. Valverde
7Vinícius
21Brahim Díaz
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Celta Vigo
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Real Madrid
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Celta Vigo+0.8 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Real Madrid-0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Celta Vigo · Home
1.31points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-5-4
- Scored
- 1.46
- Conceded
- 1.15
Real Madrid · Away
2.08points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 8-3-2
- Scored
- 1.92
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Celta Vigo | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Girona | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Mallorca | W 2–0 HD 1–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Espanyol | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| Osasuna | L 1–2 HW 3–2 A | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Getafe | D 0–0 AL 0–2 H | L 0–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Real Sociedad | L 1–3 AD 1–1 H | W 4–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Rayo Vallecano | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Sevilla | W 1–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| Valencia | W 4–1 H | W 2–0 AW 4–0 H |
| Oviedo | D 0–0 A | W 3–0 A |
| Athletic Club | W 2–0 H | W 3–0 A |
| Alaves | W 1–0 A | W 2–1 A |
| Barcelona | L 2–4 H | W 2–1 H |
| Levante | W 2–1 A | W 2–0 HW 4–1 A |
| Atletico Madrid | D 1–1 H | L 2–5 A |
| Elche | L 1–2 A | D 2–2 A |
| Villarreal | D 1–1 H | W 2–0 AW 3–1 H |
| Real Betis | D 1–1 H | W 5–1 H |
| Points | 37 of 75 · 1.48 per game | 60 of 75 · 2.40 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
1 Celta Vigo wins0 draws9 Real Madrid wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.60
Over 2.570%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets10% · 30%
- 7 Dec 2025Real Madrid0–2Celta Vigo
- 4 May 2025Real Madrid3–2Celta Vigo
- 19 Oct 2024Celta Vigo1–2Real Madrid
- 10 Mar 2024Real Madrid4–0Celta Vigo
- 25 Aug 2023Celta Vigo0–1Real Madrid
- 22 Apr 2023Real Madrid2–0Celta Vigo
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Celta Vigo | Real Madrid | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.38 | 2.08 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.08 | 0.85 | |
| Match goals | 2.46 | 2.92 | 2.46 |
| Over 1.5 | 81% | 85% | |
| Over 2.5 | 38% | 58% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 19% | 27% | |
| Both teams scored | 62% | 50% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 31% | 42% | |
| Failed to score | 15% | 12% | |
| Games | 26 | 26 |
| Celta Vigo | Real Madrid | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 2.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 0.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.90 | 2.46 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Celta Vigo | Real Madrid | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.19 | 6.35 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.69 | 3.91 | |
| Match total | 8.88 | 10.26 | 9.56 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 13/26 | 78% 18/23 | |
| Over 9.5 | 35% 9/26 | 61% 14/23 | |
| Over 10.5 | 27% 7/26 | 43% 10/23 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.77 | 1.88 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.65 | 2.69 | |
| Match total | 4.42 | 4.57 | 4.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 62% 16/26 | 50% 13/26 | |
| Over 4.5 | 42% 11/26 | 42% 11/26 | |
| Celta Vigo | Real Madrid | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.70 | 6.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 8.70 | 11.10 | 9.56 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 3.10 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 5.70 | 4.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos Spain · 36 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.67league 4.20
Red cards0.31league 0.27
Cards 5+61%league 46%
Fouls26.6league 24.5
Penalties0.28league 0.38
Home wins33%league 47%
Celta Vigo3 with this referee
Record0-0-3
Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L30 Nov 25H · Espanyol0–11
- L27 Oct 23A · Girona0–12
- L25 Aug 23H · Real Madrid0–12
Real Madrid6 with this referee
Record5-1-0
Cards · opp.1.8 · 3.2
Pens for · against3 · 0
Reds1
- W1 Feb 26H · Rayo Vallecano2–12
- W23 Sep 25A · Levante4–11
- D25 May 24H · Real Betis0–02
- W25 Feb 24H · Sevilla1–01
- W21 Dec 23A · Alaves1–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Celta Vigo25 games · scored 34 · conceded 28
1
3
0-15
3
2
16-30
6
7
31-45
8
2
46-60
4
8
61-75
12
6
76-90
Real Madrid26 games · scored 54 · conceded 22
4
1
0-15
8
2
16-30
12
5
31-45
9
6
46-60
7
4
61-75
14
4
76-90
Celta Vigo10 games · scored 14 · conceded 11
1
0-15
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
46-60
4
2
61-75
4
6
76-90
Real Madrid10 games · scored 22 · conceded 11
3
1
0-15
4
1
16-30
1
4
31-45
6
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
5
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
