Celta Vigo vs Real Sociedad – 19 Oct 2025

La Liga Gameweek 9 Sun, Oct 19 · 15:15 Abanca-Balaídos, Vigo

Celta Vigo 17th · 6 pts · 8 played DDDLD

1–1Full time

Real Sociedad 20th · 5 pts · 8 played LLWLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Celta Vigo were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Celta Vigo had 13.8 days of rest, Real Sociedad 13.9 and had to travel 564 km.

Away travel564 kmRest days13.8 · 13.9Matches / 14d1 · 1

Celta Vigo46%

Draw27%

Real Sociedad27%

Expected goals 1.48 – 1.08

Celta Vigo46%

Draw26%

Real Sociedad27%

Expected goals 1.56 – 1.14

Celta Vigo46%

Draw27%

Real Sociedad27%

Expected goals 1.49 – 1.08

Celta Vigo38%

Draw28%

Real Sociedad34%

Expected goals 1.32 – 1.22

Celta Vigo46%

Draw26%

Real Sociedad27%

Expected goals 1.56 – 1.14

Over 2.5 47% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Vigo)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainJuan Martinez Munuera

Cards per match 4.5
Penalties per match 0.44
Matches 27

Team strength

Celta Vigo

Real Sociedad

53 L90 StrengthIn forecast 48

51 Current StrengthIn forecast 56

36 AttackIn forecast 62

61 DefenceIn forecast 48

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Celta Vigo

Attack—

Defense risk—

Real Sociedad

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Celta Vigo

Real Sociedad

0.88 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.88

1.25 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.05 xGVia Att/Def 1.21

1.13 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.48

-0.17 Goals minus xGContext -0.33

88% Scored inContext 75%

0% Clean sheetsContext 13%

12.13 ShotsContext 14.25

3.75 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.13

31% On target shareContext 29%

7.50 Shots in the boxContext 9.13

62% Box shareContext 65%

7% ConversionContext 6%

2.60 OffsidesContext 2.60

10.88 Shots allowedContext 14.00

4.25 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.38

2.50 BlocksContext 4.43

3.57 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.14

78% Save rateContext 65%

54% PossessionIn forecast 52%

533 PassesContext 443

466 Accurate passesContext 370

88% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.84 Team ratingContext 6.77

11.50 FoulsContext 14.63

10.63 Fouls sufferedContext 10.38

1.63 Yellow cardsContext 2.25

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.12 xGVia Att/Def 1.24

1.13 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.65

-0.02 Goals minus xGContext -0.24

90% Scored inContext 70%

0% Clean sheetsContext 10%

12.00 ShotsContext 13.80

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.30

33% On target shareContext 31%

7.70 Shots in the boxContext 9.00

64% Box shareContext 66%

9% ConversionContext 7%

2.29 OffsidesContext 2.33

11.10 Shots allowedContext 13.70

4.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.80

2.90 BlocksContext 3.89

3.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.44

75% Save rateContext 66%

53% PossessionIn forecast 51%

531 PassesContext 445

463 Accurate passesContext 376

87% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.86 Team ratingContext 6.80

11.40 FoulsContext 13.40

10.80 Fouls sufferedContext 9.70

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Celta Vigo

Rest13.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Real Sociedad

Rest13.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel564 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Celta Vigo	Real Sociedad
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	13.8La Liga 2025-2026, 5 Oct	13.9La Liga 2025-2026, 5 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	564 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 4	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	4.2	5.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Celta Vigo Confirmed XI

3-4-3

13I. Radu(G)

20Marcos Alonso 2C. Starfelt 32Javi Rodríguez

5Sergio Carreira 22Hugo Sotelo 6I. Moriba 3Óscar Mingueza

18Pablo Durán 7Borja Iglesias 9Ferran Jutglà

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Real Sociedad Confirmed XI

4-4-2

1Álex Remiro(G)

3Aihen Muñoz 16D. Ćaleta-Car 5Zubeldia 2J. Aramburu

17Sergio Gómez 4Jon Gorrotxategi 12Y. Herrera 23Brais Méndez

7Barrenetxea 10Mikel Oyarzabal

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Celta Vigo Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Real Sociedad Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Celta Vigo-0.2 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
Real Sociedad+0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Celta Vigo · Home 0.80points per game · 5 home games

W-D-L: 0-4-1
Scored: 0.80
Conceded: 1.20

Real Sociedad · Away 0.25points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 0-1-3
Scored: 0.75
Conceded: 1.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	Celta Vigo	Real Sociedad
Rayo Vallecano	D 1–1 A	L 0–1 H
Real Betis	D 1–1 H	L 1–3 A
Mallorca	D 1–1 A	W 1–0 H
Points	3 of 9 · 1.00 per game	3 of 9 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

2 Celta Vigo wins2 draws6 Real Sociedad wins

Goals per game0.80 – 1.40 Over 2.530% Both scored50% Clean sheets20% · 30%

13 May 2025Real Sociedad0–1Celta Vigo
21 Dec 2024Celta Vigo2–0Real Sociedad
20 Jan 2024Celta Vigo0–1Real Sociedad
19 Aug 2023Real Sociedad1–1Celta Vigo
18 Feb 2023Real Sociedad1–1Celta Vigo
16 Oct 2022Celta Vigo1–2Real Sociedad

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Celta Vigo	Real Sociedad	Forecast
Scored per game	0.88	0.88
Conceded per game	1.25	1.50
Match goals	2.13	2.38	2.56
Over 1.5	100%	63%
Over 2.5	13%	50%	47%
Over 3.5	0%	25%
Both teams scored	88%	63%	52%
Clean sheets	0%	13%
Failed to score	13%	25%
Games	8	8

	Celta Vigo	Real Sociedad	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	0.88
Conceded per game	1.30	1.50
Match goals	2.40	2.38	2.56
Over 1.5	100%	63%
Over 2.5	30%	50%	47%
Over 3.5	10%	25%
Both teams scored	90%	63%	52%
Clean sheets	0%	13%
Failed to score	10%	25%
Games	10	8

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Celta Vigo	Real Sociedad	League
Corners
Corners won	5.88	7.25
Corners conceded	4.00	4.63
Match total	9.88	11.88	9.81
Over 8.5	75% 6/8	75% 6/8
Over 9.5	50% 4/8	75% 6/8
Over 10.5	38% 3/8	75% 6/8
Cards
Cards	1.63	2.25
Opponent cards	2.25	1.88
Match total	3.88	4.13	4.31
Over 3.5	50% 4/8	50% 4/8
Over 4.5	38% 3/8	13% 1/8

	Celta Vigo	Real Sociedad	League
Corners
Corners won	5.40	7.10
Corners conceded	4.20	5.00
Match total	9.60	12.10	9.81
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	80% 8/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	80% 8/10
Cards
Cards	1.80	1.90
Opponent cards	2.20	1.80
Match total	4.00	3.70	4.31
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Juan Martinez Munuera Spain · 27 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.33league 4.06

Red cards0.19league 0.27

Cards 5+41%league 44%

Fouls25.5league 24.5

Penalties0.44league 0.30

Home wins56%league 48%

Celta Vigo2 with this referee

Record1-0-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.5 Pens for · against0 · 0

W24 May 25A · Getafe2–14
L12 Apr 24A · Real Betis1–20

Real Sociedad1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 1

W9 Mar 24A · Granada CF3–22

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.