Celtic vs SC Braga – 2 Oct 2025

UEFA Europa League Matchday 2 Thu, Oct 2 · 17:45 Celtic Park, Glasgow

Celtic 17th · 1 pts · 1 played D

0–2Full time

SC Braga 12th · 3 pts · 1 played W

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Celtic were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Celtic had 7.9 days of rest, SC Braga 4 and had to travel 1,620 km.

Away travel1,620 kmRest days7.9 · 4Matches / 14d1 · 3

Celtic47%

Draw24%

SC Braga29%

Expected goals 1.76 – 1.34

Celtic45%

Draw27%

SC Braga28%

Expected goals 1.53 – 1.17

Celtic47%

Draw25%

SC Braga28%

Expected goals 1.74 – 1.30

Celtic39%

Draw25%

SC Braga36%

Expected goals 1.57 – 1.50

Celtic45%

Draw26%

SC Braga29%

Expected goals 1.55 – 1.20

Over 2.5 60% Both score 62% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Glasgow)

No weather data yet

Referee · GermanyTobias Stieler

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.31
Matches 87

Team strength

Celtic

SC Braga

60 L90 StrengthIn forecast 57

52 Current StrengthIn forecast 56

74 AttackIn forecast 42

50 DefenceIn forecast 59

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Celtic

Attack—

Defense risk—

SC Braga

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Celtic

SC Braga

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00

0.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.80

— xGVia Att/Def 1.35

— xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.97

— Goals minus xGContext +0.65

60% Scored inContext 80%

70% Clean sheetsContext 40%

14.90 ShotsContext 13.89

5.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.44

35% On target shareContext 39%

9.70 Shots in the boxContext 8.80

62% Box shareContext 56%

7% ConversionContext 14%

2.50 OffsidesContext 1.40

7.60 Shots allowedContext 7.22

2.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.78

2.56 BlocksContext 1.83

2.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.29

80% Save rateContext 76%

71% PossessionIn forecast 63%

681 PassesContext 566

600 Accurate passesContext 484

88% Pass accuracyContext 86%

7.08 Team ratingContext 6.84

12.80 FoulsContext 9.11

9.60 Fouls sufferedContext 12.00

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.30

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Celtic

Rest7.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km4,248 km in 14d

Schedule load10%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

SC Braga

Rest4 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel1,620 km32 km in 14d

Schedule load35%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Celtic	SC Braga
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 10	Moderate · 35
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 24 Sep	4Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 28 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,620 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	4,248 km	32 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 1	1 / 3 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	21.1	3.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Celtic Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1K. Schmeichel(G)

63K. Tierney 5L. Scales 20C. Carter-Vickers 51C. Donovan

28Paulo Bernardo 42C. McGregor 8E. Nygren

23S. Tounekti 17K. Ịheanachọ 38D. Maeda

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

SC Braga Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1L. Horníček(G)

26B. Arrey-Mbi 6Vitor Carvalho 14G. Lagerbielke

5Leonardo Lelo 27F. Grillitsch 29Jean-Baptiste Gorby 41Yanis da Rocha

18Pau Víctor 21Ricardo Horta

9A. El Ouazzani

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Celtic Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

SC Braga Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Celtic-0.5 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
SC Braga+0.7 pp

Home / Away this season

Celtic · Home No home games yet this season.

SC Braga · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Celtic	SC Braga	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.00
Conceded per game	1.00	0.00
Match goals	2.00	1.00	3.10
Over 1.5	100%	0%
Over 2.5	0%	0%	60%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	100%	0%	62%
Clean sheets	0%	100%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

	Celtic	SC Braga	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.50
Conceded per game	1.00	0.88
Match goals	2.00	2.38	3.10
Over 1.5	100%	63%
Over 2.5	0%	50%	60%
Over 3.5	0%	25%
Both teams scored	100%	38%	62%
Clean sheets	0%	38%
Failed to score	0%	25%
Games	1	8

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Celtic	SC Braga	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	7.00
Corners conceded	8.00	2.00
Match total	12.00	9.00	9.28
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.00
Opponent cards	2.00	2.00
Match total	4.00	3.00	4.50
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1

	Celtic	SC Braga	League
Corners
Corners won	7.67	6.14
Corners conceded	4.22	3.00
Match total	11.89	9.14	9.28
Over 8.5	89% 8/9	57% 4/7
Over 9.5	67% 6/9	29% 2/7
Over 10.5	67% 6/9	29% 2/7
Cards
Cards	1.50	1.30
Opponent cards	1.80	2.30
Match total	3.30	3.60	4.50
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Tobias Stieler Germany · 87 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.66league 4.39

Red cards0.18league 0.11

Cards 5+31%league 56%

Fouls22.0league 26.3

Penalties0.31league 0.22

Home wins53%league 39%

Celtic

No previous matches with this referee.

SC Braga

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.