Cercle Brugge
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Cercle Brugge were slight favourites.
Cercle Brugge were the stronger side on L90 Strength (29 vs 21). Cercle Brugge had 15.8 days of rest, Charleroi 14.8 and had to travel 123 km.
Away travel123 kmRest days15.8 · 14.8Matches / 14d0 · 0
Cercle Brugge49%
Draw26%
Charleroi25%
Cercle Brugge50%
Draw26%
Charleroi24%
Cercle Brugge50%
Draw26%
Charleroi25%
Cercle Brugge42%
Draw27%
Charleroi31%
Cercle Brugge50%
Draw26%
Charleroi24%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brugge)
No weather data yet
RefereeJasper Vergoote
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.45
- Matches 33
Team strength
Cercle Brugge
Charleroi
29
L90 StrengthIn forecast
21
21
Current StrengthIn forecast
38
24
AttackIn forecast
43
28
DefenceIn forecast
50
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCharleroi
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Cercle BruggeCharleroi
1.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.11
xGVia Att/Def
1.04
1.38
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.95
+0.22
Goals minus xGContext
+0.36
50%
Scored inContext
80%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
11.50
ShotsContext
10.60
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
35%
On target shareContext
38%
8.67
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
76%
Box shareContext
63%
12%
ConversionContext
13%
2.17
OffsidesContext
2.00
14.67
Shots allowedContext
10.00
4.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.60
2.83
BlocksContext
2.60
3.17
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
73%
Save rateContext
72%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
343
PassesContext
389
256
Accurate passesContext
317
75%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
7.00
Team ratingContext
6.91
10.00
FoulsContext
14.40
12.67
Fouls sufferedContext
14.00
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.17
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.34
xGVia Att/Def
1.04
1.30
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.95
+0.16
Goals minus xGContext
-0.14
60%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
13.80
ShotsContext
9.75
5.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
38%
On target shareContext
36%
9.90
Shots in the boxContext
6.13
72%
Box shareContext
61%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.13
13.20
Shots allowedContext
11.13
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.10
BlocksContext
2.88
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.88
68%
Save rateContext
72%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
332
PassesContext
393
240
Accurate passesContext
304
73%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
7.01
Team ratingContext
6.84
11.30
FoulsContext
13.63
13.10
Fouls sufferedContext
13.25
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Cercle Brugge
Rest15.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Charleroi
Rest14.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel123 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Cercle Brugge |
Charleroi |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 15.8Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 29 Aug | 14.8Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 30 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 123 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 3 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 3.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Cercle Brugge
Confirmed XI
21M. Delanghe(G)
20Flávio Nazinho
4D. Gomis
66C. Ravych
15G. Magnée
37E. Diop
28H. Van der Bruggen
18P. Gerkens
6L. Agyekum
11A. Minda
9S. Ngoura
Charleroi
Confirmed XI
55M. Delavallée(G)
24M. Nzita
95C. Keita
4A. Ousou
3K. Van Den Kerkhof
22Y. Titraoui
5É. Camara
10P. Guiagon
8J. Romsaas
14P. Pflücke
21A. Scheidler
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Cercle Brugge
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Charleroi
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Cercle Brugge-0.3 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Charleroi+0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Cercle Brugge · Home
1.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 1.33
Charleroi · Away
0.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Cercle Brugge | Charleroi |
|---|---|---|
| St. Truiden | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Dender | D 0–0 A | W 3–1 H |
| Points | 2 of 6 · 1.00 per game | 4 of 6 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Cercle Brugge wins1 draws0 Charleroi wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 50%
- 9 Mar 2024Charleroi0–0Cercle Brugge
- 5 Aug 2023Cercle Brugge2–0Charleroi
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Cercle Brugge | Charleroi | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.33 | 2.60 | 2.71 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 40% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 80% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 20% | |
| Games | 6 | 5 |
| Cercle Brugge | Charleroi | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.33 | 2.60 | 2.71 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 40% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 80% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 20% | |
| Games | 6 | 5 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Cercle Brugge | Charleroi | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.17 | 4.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 9.17 | 8.20 | 9.66 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 3/6 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 3/6 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 3/6 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.17 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.17 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.34 | 4.00 | 3.96 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 3/6 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 17% 1/6 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Cercle Brugge | Charleroi | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.20 | 3.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.70 | 4.25 | |
| Match total | 9.90 | 8.00 | 9.66 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 4.40 | 3.96 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jasper Vergoote 33 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.06league 3.72
Red cards0.30league 0.24
Cards 5+39%league 40%
Fouls23.7league 23.1
Penalties0.45league 0.36
Home wins58%league 48%
Cercle Brugge4 with this referee
Record3-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W17 Mar 24H · RWDM4–01
- D20 Jan 24A · Genk1–12
- W16 Dec 23A · OH Leuven2–13
- W19 Aug 23A · Standard Liege1–02
Charleroi2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L28 Oct 23A · AS Eupen0–22
- L1 Oct 23A · Union St. Gilloise1–32
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Cercle Brugge6 games · scored 8 · conceded 6
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
5
1
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
1
1
76-90
Charleroi5 games · scored 7 · conceded 6
1
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
Cercle Brugge10 games · scored 15 · conceded 11
3
2
0-15
2
16-30
5
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
5
61-75
3
2
76-90
Charleroi10 games · scored 9 · conceded 13
1
2
0-15
3
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
