Cercle Brugge
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Cercle Brugge47.0%fair odds 2.13
Draw26.6%fair odds 3.75
KVC Westerlo26.4%fair odds 3.79
Expected goals1.55 – 1.10total 2.65
Likeliest score1–112.7%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
KVC Westerlo
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Cercle Brugge ↓ · KVC Westerlo → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.7 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Cercle Brugge goals, columns KVC Westerlo goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.7%7.88
- 1–010.3%9.68
- 2–19.3%10.72
- 2–08.5%11.78
- 0–07.7%12.94
- 0–17.2%13.98
- 1–26.6%15.09
- 2–25.1%19.50
- 3–14.8%20.78
- 3–04.4%22.85
Winning margin
9.9%
Cercle Brugge by 3+
fair 10.15
14.4%
Cercle Brugge by 2
fair 6.92
22.7%
Cercle Brugge by 1
fair 4.40
26.6%
Draw
fair 3.75
16.0%
KVC Westerlo by 1
fair 6.27
7.3%
KVC Westerlo by 2
fair 13.71
3.1%
KVC Westerlo by 3+
fair 32.11
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
17%1
25%2
22%3
14%4
13%5+
Cercle Brugge goals
21%0
33%1
25%2
13%3
7%4+
KVC Westerlo goals
33%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cercle Brugge win | 47.0% | 47.6% | -0.6 pp |
| Draw | 26.6% | 26.2% | +0.4 pp |
| KVC Westerlo win | 26.4% | 26.2% | +0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 49.3% | 50.8% | -1.5 pp |
| Both teams score | 53.1% | 54.2% | -1.1 pp |
| Expected goals Cercle Brugge | 1.55 | 1.59 | -0.04 |
| Expected goals KVC Westerlo | 1.10 | 1.12 | -0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Cercle Brugge win47.0%2.13
- Draw26.6%3.75
- KVC Westerlo win26.4%3.79
- Double chance Cercle Brugge or draw73.6%1.36
- Double chance Cercle Brugge or KVC Westerlo73.4%1.36
- Double chance KVC Westerlo or draw53.0%1.89
- Draw no bet Cercle Brugge64.1%1.56
- Draw no bet KVC Westerlo35.9%2.78
Goals
- Over 0.592.3%1.08
- Over 1.574.8%1.34
- Over 2.549.3%2.03
- Over 3.527.4%3.65
- Over 4.512.9%7.74
- Under 1.525.2%3.97
- Under 2.550.7%1.97
- Under 3.572.6%1.38
Both teams to score
- Yes53.1%1.88
- No46.9%2.13
- Yes and over 2.540.4%2.47
- Cercle Brugge win and yes21.4%4.67
- Draw and yes18.9%5.29
- KVC Westerlo win and yes12.8%7.81
Team goals
- Cercle Brugge over 0.578.7%1.27
- Cercle Brugge over 1.545.8%2.18
- Cercle Brugge over 2.520.3%4.92
- KVC Westerlo over 0.566.7%1.50
- KVC Westerlo over 1.530.1%3.33
- KVC Westerlo over 2.59.9%10.05
- Cercle Brugge clean sheet33.3%3.00
- KVC Westerlo clean sheet21.3%4.70
- Cercle Brugge win to nil25.6%3.91
- KVC Westerlo win to nil13.6%7.38
Handicap
- Cercle Brugge −1.524.3%4.12
- Cercle Brugge −2.59.9%10.15
- KVC Westerlo +1.575.7%1.32
- KVC Westerlo +2.590.1%1.11
- KVC Westerlo −1.510.4%9.61
- Cercle Brugge +1.589.6%1.12
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored31
Favourite won51.6%
Avg chance given to result39.8%
1X2 Brier0.580
Over 2.5 called right58.1%
BTTS called right58.1%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 6 | 38.8% | 16.7% |
| 40–50% | 16 | 43.5% | 43.8% |
| 50–60% | 5 | 56.2% | 100.0% |
| 60–70% | 4 | 64.2% | 75.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 8 of 31 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5474 | 0.6027 |
| Avg chance given to result | 42.1% | 40.4% |
| Favourite won | 62.5% | 50.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 8 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✗Charleroi 1–1 Antwerp28·27·45
- ✓St. Truiden 2–1 RAAL La Louvière46·27·27
- ✓Dender 0–2 Anderlecht29·26·44
- ✓Union St. Gilloise 3–0 Standard Liege58·23·18
- ✗KV Mechelen 1–1 Gent40·27·33
- ✓Zulte Waregem 0–1 Club Brugge KV22·25·53
- ✓OH Leuven 1–2 Genk32·27·41
- ✓Antwerp 3–1 OH Leuven58·24·18
- ✓Standard Liege 2–1 Genk39·27·34
- ✗Anderlecht 2–3 Zulte Waregem63·22·15
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 31 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.