Cercle Brugge
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Cercle Brugge
13th · 12 pts · 13 played
LDDDL
1–2Full time
OH Leuven
14th · 12 pts · 13 played
DLLDW
Cercle Brugge47.2%fair odds 2.12
Draw26.5%fair odds 3.77
OH Leuven26.3%fair odds 3.80
Expected goals1.56 – 1.11total 2.67
Likeliest score1–112.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
OH Leuven
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Cercle Brugge ↓ · OH Leuven → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.6 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Cercle Brugge goals, columns OH Leuven goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.6%7.92
- 1–010.2%9.81
- 2–19.4%10.69
- 2–08.5%11.83
- 0–07.6%13.20
- 0–17.1%14.18
- 1–26.6%15.06
- 2–25.2%19.31
- 3–14.9%20.55
- 3–04.4%22.75
Winning margin
10.0%
Cercle Brugge by 3+
fair 10.01
14.5%
Cercle Brugge by 2
fair 6.90
22.7%
Cercle Brugge by 1
fair 4.41
26.5%
Draw
fair 3.77
15.9%
OH Leuven by 1
fair 6.29
7.3%
OH Leuven by 2
fair 13.70
3.1%
OH Leuven by 3+
fair 31.84
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
17%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
13%5+
Cercle Brugge goals
21%0
33%1
26%2
13%3
7%4+
OH Leuven goals
33%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cercle Brugge win | 47.2% | 46.9% | +0.3 pp |
| Draw | 26.5% | 26.3% | +0.2 pp |
| OH Leuven win | 26.3% | 26.8% | -0.5 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 49.8% | 50.9% | -1.1 pp |
| Both teams score | 53.5% | 54.5% | -0.9 pp |
| Expected goals Cercle Brugge | 1.56 | 1.58 | -0.01 |
| Expected goals OH Leuven | 1.11 | 1.14 | -0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Cercle Brugge win47.2%2.12
- Draw26.5%3.77
- OH Leuven win26.3%3.80
- Double chance Cercle Brugge or draw73.7%1.36
- Double chance Cercle Brugge or OH Leuven73.5%1.36
- Double chance OH Leuven or draw52.8%1.89
- Draw no bet Cercle Brugge64.2%1.56
- Draw no bet OH Leuven35.8%2.79
Goals
- Over 0.592.4%1.08
- Over 1.575.2%1.33
- Over 2.549.8%2.01
- Over 3.527.9%3.59
- Over 4.513.2%7.56
- Under 1.524.8%4.03
- Under 2.550.2%1.99
- Under 3.572.1%1.39
Both teams to score
- Yes53.5%1.87
- No46.5%2.15
- Yes and over 2.540.9%2.45
- Cercle Brugge win and yes21.7%4.61
- Draw and yes18.9%5.29
- OH Leuven win and yes12.9%7.74
Team goals
- Cercle Brugge over 0.579.0%1.27
- Cercle Brugge over 1.546.2%2.16
- Cercle Brugge over 2.520.6%4.84
- OH Leuven over 0.567.0%1.49
- OH Leuven over 1.530.4%3.29
- OH Leuven over 2.510.1%9.90
- Cercle Brugge clean sheet33.0%3.03
- OH Leuven clean sheet21.0%4.76
- Cercle Brugge win to nil25.5%3.93
- OH Leuven win to nil13.4%7.45
Handicap
- Cercle Brugge −1.524.5%4.08
- Cercle Brugge −2.510.0%10.01
- OH Leuven +1.575.5%1.32
- OH Leuven +2.590.0%1.11
- OH Leuven −1.510.4%9.58
- Cercle Brugge +1.589.6%1.12
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored105
Favourite won47.6%
Avg chance given to result38.7%
1X2 Brier0.605
Over 2.5 called right53.3%
BTTS called right51.4%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 20 | 38.3% | 30.0% |
| 40–50% | 53 | 45.1% | 37.7% |
| 50–60% | 21 | 55.1% | 71.4% |
| 60–70% | 9 | 65.2% | 88.9% |
| 70–80% | 2 | 75.1% | 50.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 67 of 105 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6042 | 0.5953 |
| Avg chance given to result | 39.1% | 40.1% |
| Favourite won | 47.8% | 50.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 67 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✗Dender 2–2 Zulte Waregem35·28·37
- ✓RAAL La Louvière 2–1 Cercle Brugge43·28·30
- ✓St. Truiden 1–0 Antwerp38·27·34
- ✗OH Leuven 4–0 Gent27·26·46
- ✓KVC Westerlo 0–1 Genk34·27·39
- ✓Anderlecht 3–1 KV Mechelen52·25·23
- ✓Club Brugge KV 2–1 Dender77·15·8
- ✓Zulte Waregem 1–4 Union St. Gilloise28·27·46
- ✓Standard Liege 3–1 Charleroi47·27·26
- ✓Union St. Gilloise 2–0 St. Truiden61·23·16
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 105 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.