Cercle Brugge
Attack—
Defense risk—
Cercle Brugge
13th · 12 pts · 13 played
LDDDL
1–2Full time
OH Leuven
14th · 12 pts · 13 played
DLLDW
Our take
Cercle Brugge were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Cercle Brugge had 5.9 days of rest, OH Leuven 6 and had to travel 110 km.
Away travel110 kmRest days5.9 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 2
Cercle Brugge47%
Draw27%
OH Leuven26%
Cercle Brugge47%
Draw26%
OH Leuven27%
Cercle Brugge47%
Draw26%
OH Leuven26%
Cercle Brugge40%
Draw27%
OH Leuven33%
Cercle Brugge47%
Draw26%
OH Leuven27%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brugge)
No weather data yet
RefereeSimon Bourdeaud'hui
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.20
- Matches 15
Team strength
Cercle BruggeOH Leuven
25
L90 StrengthIn forecast
22
21
Current StrengthIn forecast
18
24
AttackIn forecast
17
28
DefenceIn forecast
30
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisOH Leuven
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Cercle BruggeOH Leuven
1.31
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.46
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.62
1.50
xGVia Att/Def
0.95
1.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.31
-0.19
Goals minus xGContext
+0.05
69%
Scored inContext
69%
23%
Clean sheetsContext
23%
13.15
ShotsContext
11.69
4.08
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
31%
On target shareContext
32%
9.62
Shots in the boxContext
8.17
72%
Box shareContext
69%
10%
ConversionContext
9%
2.25
OffsidesContext
1.77
13.77
Shots allowedContext
12.00
4.92
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.77
3.17
BlocksContext
2.92
3.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.23
69%
Save rateContext
68%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
378
PassesContext
331
294
Accurate passesContext
256
78%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.69
10.77
FoulsContext
16.23
12.08
Fouls sufferedContext
10.77
1.77
Yellow cardsContext
3.15
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.69
xGVia Att/Def
1.08
1.44
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.09
+0.01
Goals minus xGContext
-0.08
90%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
13.90
ShotsContext
13.40
4.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
34%
On target shareContext
33%
10.20
Shots in the boxContext
8.70
72%
Box shareContext
66%
12%
ConversionContext
8%
2.22
OffsidesContext
1.80
14.80
Shots allowedContext
11.00
5.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
3.56
BlocksContext
2.56
3.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.10
71%
Save rateContext
76%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
388
PassesContext
337
303
Accurate passesContext
261
78%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.74
10.90
FoulsContext
16.60
10.90
Fouls sufferedContext
10.60
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
3.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Cercle Brugge
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km210 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
OH Leuven
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel110 km47 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Cercle Brugge |
OH Leuven |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 2 Nov | 6Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 2 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 110 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 210 km | 47 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14 | 15.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Cercle Brugge
Confirmed XI
21M. Delanghe(G)
20Flávio Nazinho
3E. Utkus
5Emmanuel Kakou
15G. Magnée
19Makaya Ibrahima Diaby
37E. Diop
6L. Agyekum
18P. Gerkens
10O. Diakité
11A. Minda
OH Leuven
Confirmed XI
1T. Leysen(G)
30T. Akimoto
34R. Nyakossi
3Noë Dussenne
28E. Pletinckx
77T. Vlietinck
10Y. Maziz
6W. George
24Ł. Łakomy
19C. Ikwuemesi
39S. Kaba
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Cercle Brugge
Absences are shown before kick-off
OH Leuven
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Cercle Brugge+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- OH Leuven+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Cercle Brugge · Home
0.86points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-3
- Scored
- 1.71
- Conceded
- 2.00
OH Leuven · Away
0.67points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-4
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 2.17
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 12 this season
| Opponent | Cercle Brugge | OH Leuven |
|---|---|---|
| RAAL La Louvière | L 1–2 A | L 1–2 H |
| Zulte Waregem | D 1–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Genk | D 2–2 H | L 1–2 H |
| Antwerp | D 1–1 A | L 1–3 A |
| Gent | L 2–4 H | W 4–0 H |
| KV Mechelen | D 0–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| Charleroi | L 2–3 H | D 2–2 H |
| Standard Liege | W 3–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| KVC Westerlo | W 4–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Club Brugge KV | L 0–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| Anderlecht | L 0–2 H | D 1–1 H |
| Dender | D 0–0 A | W 1–0 A |
| Points | 11 of 36 · 0.92 per game | 12 of 36 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
2 Cercle Brugge wins0 draws0 OH Leuven wins
Goals per game2.50 – 1.50
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 16 Dec 2023OH Leuven1–2Cercle Brugge
- 7 Oct 2023Cercle Brugge3–2OH Leuven
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Cercle Brugge | OH Leuven | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.31 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.46 | 1.62 | |
| Match goals | 2.77 | 2.62 | 2.67 |
| Over 1.5 | 85% | 77% | |
| Over 2.5 | 46% | 46% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 31% | 31% | |
| Both teams scored | 62% | 46% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 23% | 23% | |
| Failed to score | 31% | 31% | |
| Games | 13 | 13 |
| Cercle Brugge | OH Leuven | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 2.10 | 2.67 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 30% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Cercle Brugge | OH Leuven | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.33 | 4.17 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 9.33 | 9.17 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 6/12 | 50% 6/12 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 6/12 | 50% 6/12 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 6/12 | 42% 5/12 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.85 | 3.23 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.54 | 2.46 | |
| Match total | 3.39 | 5.69 | 4.03 |
| Over 3.5 | 54% 7/13 | 85% 11/13 | |
| Over 4.5 | 23% 3/13 | 62% 8/13 | |
| Cercle Brugge | OH Leuven | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.33 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.22 | 4.78 | |
| Match total | 9.55 | 8.78 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 3.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 5.90 | 4.03 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Simon Bourdeaud'hui 15 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.00league 3.81
Red cards0.07league 0.21
Cards 5+40%league 41%
Fouls24.5league 23.1
Penalties0.20league 0.29
Home wins40%league 44%
Cercle BruggeNo previous matches with this referee.
OH Leuven2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.3.5 · 5.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D26 Sep 25H · Anderlecht1–14
- L4 Nov 23H · KVC Westerlo0–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Cercle Brugge13 games · scored 17 · conceded 19
1
3
0-15
2
4
16-30
8
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
3
76-90
OH Leuven13 games · scored 13 · conceded 21
2
4
0-15
4
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
5
6
76-90
Cercle Brugge10 games · scored 17 · conceded 15
1
2
0-15
2
4
16-30
8
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
OH Leuven10 games · scored 10 · conceded 11
1
2
0-15
4
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
