Cercle Brugge
Attack—
Defense risk—
Cercle Brugge
13th · 11 pts · 11 played
LDLDD
1–1Full time
Zulte Waregem
7th · 17 pts · 11 played
WWWDW
Our take
Cercle Brugge were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Cercle Brugge had 7.1 days of rest, Zulte Waregem 6.9 and had to travel 38 km.
Away travel38 kmRest days7.1 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Cercle Brugge41%
Draw27%
Zulte Waregem31%
Cercle Brugge41%
Draw27%
Zulte Waregem31%
Cercle Brugge41%
Draw27%
Zulte Waregem31%
Cercle Brugge34%
Draw28%
Zulte Waregem38%
Cercle Brugge42%
Draw27%
Zulte Waregem31%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brugge)
No weather data yet
RefereeJan Boterberg
- Cards per match 3.0
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 21
Team strength
Cercle BruggeZulte Waregem
27
L90 StrengthIn forecast
30
21
Current StrengthIn forecast
30
24
AttackIn forecast
27
28
DefenceIn forecast
31
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisZulte Waregem
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Cercle BruggeZulte Waregem
1.36
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.55
1.45
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.27
1.40
xGVia Att/Def
1.02
1.50
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.35
-0.04
Goals minus xGContext
+0.53
64%
Scored inContext
73%
27%
Clean sheetsContext
27%
12.73
ShotsContext
11.73
4.18
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.64
33%
On target shareContext
40%
9.18
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
72%
Box shareContext
65%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
2.10
OffsidesContext
2.14
14.09
Shots allowedContext
13.45
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.09
3.20
BlocksContext
3.50
3.45
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.82
69%
Save rateContext
69%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
351
PassesContext
385
266
Accurate passesContext
315
76%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.96
11.18
FoulsContext
10.64
12.09
Fouls sufferedContext
11.55
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.73
0.09
Red cardsContext
0.09
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.41
xGVia Att/Def
0.91
1.53
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.43
+0.09
Goals minus xGContext
+0.69
70%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
13.00
ShotsContext
10.80
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
34%
On target shareContext
43%
9.30
Shots in the boxContext
7.33
71%
Box shareContext
65%
12%
ConversionContext
15%
1.89
OffsidesContext
2.14
14.40
Shots allowedContext
14.10
5.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
3.33
BlocksContext
3.67
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
67%
Save rateContext
70%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
354
PassesContext
371
271
Accurate passesContext
302
77%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.96
11.00
FoulsContext
10.90
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.90
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Cercle Brugge
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Zulte Waregem
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel38 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Cercle Brugge |
Zulte Waregem |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 19 Oct | 6.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 19 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 38 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Cercle Brugge
Confirmed XI
21M. Delanghe(G)
15G. Magnée
66C. Ravych
3E. Utkus
5Emmanuel Kakou
37E. Diop
28H. Van der Bruggen
18P. Gerkens
17O. Adewumi
11A. Minda
10O. Diakité
Zulte Waregem
Confirmed XI
13B. Gabriël(G)
55Y. Cappelle
5Jakob Kiilerich
3Anton Tanghe
19Benoit Nyssen
8T. Claes
21Tochukwu Nnadi
22J. Opoku
24Jeppe Erenbjerg
11S. Gavriel
18A. Ementa
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Cercle Brugge
Absences are shown before kick-off
Zulte Waregem
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Cercle Brugge+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Zulte Waregem+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Cercle Brugge · Home
0.83points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-3
- Scored
- 1.83
- Conceded
- 2.17
Zulte Waregem · Away
1.40points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-2
- Scored
- 1.60
- Conceded
- 1.80
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 9 this season
| Opponent | Cercle Brugge | Zulte Waregem |
|---|---|---|
| Genk | D 2–2 H | L 2–3 A |
| Antwerp | D 1–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Gent | L 2–4 H | W 4–1 H |
| KV Mechelen | D 0–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Charleroi | L 2–3 H | W 2–1 A |
| St. Truiden | D 1–1 H | L 0–2 H |
| KVC Westerlo | W 4–1 H | L 1–3 A |
| Club Brugge KV | L 0–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| Anderlecht | L 0–2 H | W 3–2 A |
| Points | 7 of 27 · 0.78 per game | 13 of 27 · 1.44 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Cercle Brugge | Zulte Waregem | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.36 | 1.55 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.45 | 1.27 | |
| Match goals | 2.82 | 2.82 | 2.63 |
| Over 1.5 | 82% | 82% | |
| Over 2.5 | 45% | 45% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 36% | 36% | |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 55% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 27% | 27% | |
| Failed to score | 36% | 27% | |
| Games | 11 | 11 |
| Cercle Brugge | Zulte Waregem | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 2.90 | 2.63 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Cercle Brugge | Zulte Waregem | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.27 | 4.45 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.36 | 7.09 | |
| Match total | 9.63 | 11.54 | 9.54 |
| Over 8.5 | 55% 6/11 | 73% 8/11 | |
| Over 9.5 | 55% 6/11 | 64% 7/11 | |
| Over 10.5 | 55% 6/11 | 64% 7/11 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.09 | 1.82 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.45 | 2.09 | |
| Match total | 3.54 | 3.91 | 4.10 |
| Over 3.5 | 55% 6/11 | 55% 6/11 | |
| Over 4.5 | 27% 3/11 | 45% 5/11 | |
| Cercle Brugge | Zulte Waregem | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.40 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.60 | 7.20 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 11.20 | 9.54 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 3.70 | 4.10 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jan Boterberg 21 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.90league 3.87
Red cards0.14league 0.22
Cards 5+19%league 42%
Fouls19.4league 23.3
Penalties0.24league 0.28
Home wins52%league 42%
Cercle Brugge3 with this referee
Record1-0-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W23 Aug 25A · Standard Liege3–03
- L2 Mar 24H · KV Mechelen2–31
- L5 Nov 23H · Anderlecht0–32
Zulte Waregem1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L16 Aug 25H · Club Brugge KV0–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Cercle Brugge11 games · scored 15 · conceded 16
1
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
8
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
3
61-75
2
2
76-90
Zulte Waregem11 games · scored 17 · conceded 14
3
4
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
5
4
76-90
Cercle Brugge10 games · scored 15 · conceded 16
1
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
8
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
3
61-75
2
2
76-90
Zulte Waregem10 games · scored 16 · conceded 13
3
4
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
