Cercle Brugge
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Cercle Brugge
13th · 11 pts · 11 played
LDLDD
1–1Full time
Zulte Waregem
7th · 17 pts · 11 played
WWWDW
Cercle Brugge41.3%fair odds 2.42
Draw27.4%fair odds 3.65
Zulte Waregem31.4%fair odds 3.19
Expected goals1.42 – 1.21total 2.63
Likeliest score1–113.0%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Zulte Waregem
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Cercle Brugge ↓ · Zulte Waregem → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.1 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 13.0 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.8 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Cercle Brugge goals, columns Zulte Waregem goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.0%7.66
- 1–09.6%10.41
- 2–18.8%11.37
- 0–18.1%12.39
- 0–07.9%12.68
- 1–27.5%13.37
- 2–07.3%13.72
- 2–25.3%18.83
- 0–25.3%18.99
- 3–14.2%24.01
Winning margin
7.5%
Cercle Brugge by 3+
fair 13.32
12.5%
Cercle Brugge by 2
fair 8.03
21.3%
Cercle Brugge by 1
fair 4.69
27.4%
Draw
fair 3.65
18.0%
Zulte Waregem by 1
fair 5.55
9.0%
Zulte Waregem by 2
fair 11.11
4.3%
Zulte Waregem by 3+
fair 23.03
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
18%1
26%2
22%3
14%4
13%5+
Cercle Brugge goals
24%0
34%1
24%2
12%3
6%4+
Zulte Waregem goals
30%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cercle Brugge win | 41.3% | 41.5% | -0.2 pp |
| Draw | 27.4% | 27.0% | +0.3 pp |
| Zulte Waregem win | 31.4% | 31.5% | -0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 48.8% | 50.2% | -1.4 pp |
| Both teams score | 53.8% | 54.9% | -1.1 pp |
| Expected goals Cercle Brugge | 1.42 | 1.45 | -0.03 |
| Expected goals Zulte Waregem | 1.21 | 1.23 | -0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Cercle Brugge win41.3%2.42
- Draw27.4%3.65
- Zulte Waregem win31.4%3.19
- Double chance Cercle Brugge or draw68.6%1.46
- Double chance Cercle Brugge or Zulte Waregem72.6%1.38
- Double chance Zulte Waregem or draw58.7%1.70
- Draw no bet Cercle Brugge56.8%1.76
- Draw no bet Zulte Waregem43.2%2.32
Goals
- Over 0.592.1%1.09
- Over 1.574.4%1.34
- Over 2.548.8%2.05
- Over 3.527.0%3.70
- Over 4.512.6%7.91
- Under 1.525.6%3.91
- Under 2.551.2%1.95
- Under 3.573.0%1.37
Both teams to score
- Yes53.8%1.86
- No46.2%2.16
- Yes and over 2.540.8%2.45
- Cercle Brugge win and yes19.2%5.19
- Draw and yes19.5%5.13
- Zulte Waregem win and yes15.1%6.63
Team goals
- Cercle Brugge over 0.575.8%1.32
- Cercle Brugge over 1.541.5%2.41
- Cercle Brugge over 2.517.1%5.84
- Zulte Waregem over 0.570.1%1.43
- Zulte Waregem over 1.534.0%2.94
- Zulte Waregem over 2.512.2%8.19
- Cercle Brugge clean sheet29.9%3.34
- Zulte Waregem clean sheet24.2%4.14
- Cercle Brugge win to nil22.0%4.54
- Zulte Waregem win to nil16.3%6.14
Handicap
- Cercle Brugge −1.520.0%5.01
- Cercle Brugge −2.57.5%13.32
- Zulte Waregem +1.580.0%1.25
- Zulte Waregem +2.592.5%1.08
- Zulte Waregem −1.513.3%7.49
- Cercle Brugge +1.586.7%1.15
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored93
Favourite won45.2%
Avg chance given to result38.2%
1X2 Brier0.614
Over 2.5 called right55.9%
BTTS called right50.5%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 17 | 38.4% | 23.5% |
| 40–50% | 48 | 45.1% | 35.4% |
| 50–60% | 19 | 55.4% | 73.7% |
| 60–70% | 8 | 65.7% | 87.5% |
| 70–80% | 1 | 73.5% | 0.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 55 of 93 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6191 | 0.6157 |
| Avg chance given to result | 38.3% | 38.9% |
| Favourite won | 43.6% | 45.5% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 55 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✓Antwerp 0–1 Club Brugge KV26·26·48
- ✓Gent 4–0 Standard Liege53·25·22
- ✗KV Mechelen 1–1 OH Leuven56·25·20
- ✗KVC Westerlo 1–1 Dender49·26·25
- ✗Charleroi 1–0 Anderlecht26·26·48
- ✗Standard Liege 1–0 Antwerp36·28·37
- ✗Zulte Waregem 4–1 Gent33·27·40
- ✗St. Truiden 2–2 Anderlecht32·27·41
- ✓Dender 1–3 KV Mechelen34·28·38
- ✗Cercle Brugge 2–2 Genk36·27·37
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 93 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.