Charleroi
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Anderlecht were slight favourites.
Anderlecht were the stronger side on L90 Strength (47 vs 21). Charleroi had 6 days of rest, Anderlecht 5.1 and had to travel 49 km.
Away travel49 kmRest days6 · 5.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Charleroi26%
Draw26%
Anderlecht48%
Charleroi27%
Draw26%
Anderlecht47%
Charleroi26%
Draw26%
Anderlecht48%
Charleroi20%
Draw24%
Anderlecht55%
Charleroi27%
Draw26%
Anderlecht47%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Charleroi)
No weather data yet
Referee · BelgiumLawrence Visser
- Cards per match 5.6
- Penalties per match 0.12
- Matches 34
Team strength
Charleroi
Anderlecht
21
L90 StrengthIn forecast
47
38
Current StrengthIn forecast
43
43
AttackIn forecast
37
50
DefenceIn forecast
52
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAnderlecht
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
CharleroiAnderlecht
1.27
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.55
1.55
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.91
xGVia Att/Def
1.54
1.05
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.11
+0.36
Goals minus xGContext
+0.01
82%
Scored inContext
82%
9%
Clean sheetsContext
45%
9.91
ShotsContext
14.55
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.18
40%
On target shareContext
36%
5.73
Shots in the boxContext
8.64
56%
Box shareContext
60%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
2.30
OffsidesContext
2.56
11.18
Shots allowedContext
11.55
3.45
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.36
3.80
BlocksContext
3.00
2.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.09
66%
Save rateContext
62%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
368
PassesContext
446
292
Accurate passesContext
362
79%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.92
11.73
FoulsContext
13.73
11.91
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
2.18
Yellow cardsContext
2.45
0.09
Red cardsContext
0.09
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
0.87
xGVia Att/Def
1.27
1.04
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.17
+0.33
Goals minus xGContext
-0.37
80%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
9.40
ShotsContext
13.90
3.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
39%
On target shareContext
35%
5.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.10
53%
Box shareContext
59%
13%
ConversionContext
7%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.60
Shots allowedContext
12.50
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.60
4.11
BlocksContext
2.80
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
69%
Save rateContext
72%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
363
PassesContext
458
286
Accurate passesContext
376
79%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.85
11.50
FoulsContext
14.70
11.60
Fouls sufferedContext
10.20
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Charleroi
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km99 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Anderlecht
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel49 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Charleroi |
Anderlecht |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 18 Oct | 5.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 19 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 49 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 99 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Charleroi
Confirmed XI
55M. Delavallée(G)
24M. Nzita
95C. Keita
4A. Ousou
3K. Van Den Kerkhof
5É. Camara
22Y. Titraoui
10P. Guiagon
8J. Romsaas
14P. Pflücke
21A. Scheidler
Anderlecht
Confirmed XI
26C. Coosemans(G)
5M. N'Diaye
55M. Kana
3L. Hey
54K. Sardella
13N. Saliba
74N. De Cat
19N. Angulo
11T. Hazard
7I. Camara
9M. CvetkoviÄ
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Charleroi
Absences are shown before kick-off
Anderlecht
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Charleroi+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Anderlecht+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Charleroi · Home
1.00points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-2
- Scored
- 1.20
- Conceded
- 1.40
Anderlecht · Away
1.60points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-1
- Scored
- 1.40
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 9 this season
| Opponent | Charleroi | Anderlecht |
|---|---|---|
| Union St. Gilloise | L 1–3 A | L 0–2 A |
| Gent | L 1–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| Zulte Waregem | L 1–2 H | L 2–3 H |
| Genk | W 1–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Cercle Brugge | W 3–2 A | W 2–0 A |
| Dender | W 3–1 H | W 2–0 A |
| Antwerp | D 1–1 H | D 0–0 H |
| St. Truiden | D 1–1 H | D 2–2 A |
| OH Leuven | D 2–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 12 of 27 · 1.33 per game | 13 of 27 · 1.44 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Charleroi wins0 draws2 Anderlecht wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.50
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 11 Feb 2024Charleroi1–3Anderlecht
- 27 Aug 2023Anderlecht2–1Charleroi
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Charleroi | Anderlecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.27 | 1.55 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.55 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.82 | 2.55 | 2.71 |
| Over 1.5 | 82% | 73% | |
| Over 2.5 | 55% | 27% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 36% | 27% | |
| Both teams scored | 73% | 45% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 9% | 45% | |
| Failed to score | 18% | 18% | |
| Games | 11 | 11 |
| Charleroi | Anderlecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 2.10 | 2.71 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 20% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Charleroi | Anderlecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.82 | 5.73 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.18 | 3.82 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 9.55 | 9.53 |
| Over 8.5 | 27% 3/11 | 82% 9/11 | |
| Over 9.5 | 18% 2/11 | 55% 6/11 | |
| Over 10.5 | 18% 2/11 | 27% 3/11 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.36 | 2.73 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.55 | 2.27 | |
| Match total | 3.91 | 5.00 | 4.11 |
| Over 3.5 | 55% 6/11 | 73% 8/11 | |
| Over 4.5 | 36% 4/11 | 64% 7/11 | |
| Charleroi | Anderlecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.40 | 5.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.20 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 7.60 | 9.56 | 9.53 |
| Over 8.5 | 20% 2/10 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 10% 1/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 3.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 5.30 | 4.11 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Lawrence Visser Belgium · 34 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.15league 3.88
Red cards0.41league 0.23
Cards 5+65%league 43%
Fouls22.7league 23.3
Penalties0.12league 0.30
Home wins38%league 42%
Charleroi2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L3 Oct 25A · Gent1–24
- W6 Oct 23H · RWDM2–11
Anderlecht3 with this referee
Record2-1-0
Cards · opp.2.7 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W17 Aug 25A · Dender2–01
- D24 Sep 23H · Club Brugge KV1–11
- W13 Aug 23A · St. Truiden1–06
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Charleroi11 games · scored 14 · conceded 17
3
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
4
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
4
61-75
3
3
76-90
Anderlecht11 games · scored 17 · conceded 11
2
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
31-45
4
2
46-60
5
1
61-75
3
5
76-90
Charleroi10 games · scored 12 · conceded 15
3
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
4
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
4
61-75
1
2
76-90
Anderlecht10 games · scored 9 · conceded 9
1
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
