Charleroi
Attack—
Defense risk—
Charleroi
12th · 20 pts · 18 played
WLDLD
First leg1–0
2–2Full time
Genk
6th · 24 pts · 18 played
DLWLD
Our take
Genk were slight favourites.
Genk were the stronger side on L90 Strength (37 vs 22). Genk usually keep the ball (60% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Charleroi had 5.1 days of rest, Genk 5.1 and had to travel 97 km.
Away travel97 kmRest days5.1 · 5.1Matches / 14d2 · 3
Charleroi32%
Draw27%
Genk41%
Charleroi33%
Draw27%
Genk40%
Charleroi32%
Draw27%
Genk41%
Charleroi25%
Draw26%
Genk49%
Charleroi33%
Draw27%
Genk40%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Charleroi)
No weather data yet
RefereeSimon Bourdeaud'hui
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.16
- Matches 19
Team strength
CharleroiGenk
22
L90 StrengthIn forecast
37
38
Current StrengthIn forecast
44
43
AttackIn forecast
46
50
DefenceIn forecast
50
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGenk
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
CharleroiGenk
1.06
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.22
1.28
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.33
1.03
xGVia Att/Def
1.41
1.06
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.22
+0.03
Goals minus xGContext
-0.19
72%
Scored inContext
83%
22%
Clean sheetsContext
6%
10.28
ShotsContext
16.28
4.12
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.50
38%
On target shareContext
34%
6.53
Shots in the boxContext
9.88
61%
Box shareContext
59%
10%
ConversionContext
8%
2.47
OffsidesContext
2.18
11.39
Shots allowedContext
11.33
3.47
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.28
3.59
BlocksContext
3.19
2.64
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.94
71%
Save rateContext
69%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
65%
363
PassesContext
565
288
Accurate passesContext
493
79%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.97
10.94
FoulsContext
10.28
11.56
Fouls sufferedContext
13.44
1.83
Yellow cardsContext
1.28
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.06
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.03
xGVia Att/Def
1.28
1.03
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.35
-0.33
Goals minus xGContext
-0.08
60%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
10.60
ShotsContext
14.30
4.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.60
40%
On target shareContext
39%
6.67
Shots in the boxContext
8.78
60%
Box shareContext
59%
7%
ConversionContext
8%
2.29
OffsidesContext
2.29
11.20
Shots allowedContext
12.80
3.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
3.44
BlocksContext
3.89
2.57
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
69%
Save rateContext
67%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
370
PassesContext
538
296
Accurate passesContext
464
80%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.89
9.00
FoulsContext
10.00
10.60
Fouls sufferedContext
12.50
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Charleroi
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km137 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Genk
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel97 km1,393 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Charleroi |
Genk |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 15 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 14 Dec | 5.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 14 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 97 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 137 km | 1,393 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 3 / 6 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 6.7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Charleroi
Confirmed XI
55M. Delavallée(G)
24M. Nzita
95C. Keita
4A. Ousou
27L. Blum
5É. Camara
22Y. Titraoui
10P. Guiagon
14P. Pflücke
17A. Bernier
21A. Scheidler
Genk
Confirmed XI
1H. Van Crombrugge(G)
34Adrian Palacios
6M. Smets
3Mujaid Sadick
77Z. El Ouahdi
8B. Heynen
17P. Hrošovský
19Y. Medina
38D. Heymans
20K. Karetsas
9H. Oh
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Charleroi
Absences are shown before kick-off
Genk
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Charleroi+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Genk+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Charleroi · Home
1.44points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-4-2
- Scored
- 1.11
- Conceded
- 0.89
Genk · Away
1.33points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-3
- Scored
- 1.22
- Conceded
- 1.44
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Charleroi | Genk |
|---|---|---|
| Union St. Gilloise | D 1–1 HL 1–3 A | L 1–2 H |
| KV Mechelen | L 0–1 AL 0–2 H | L 0–1 H |
| RAAL La Louvière | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Club Brugge KV | L 0–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| KVC Westerlo | W 2–0 H | D 1–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Standard Liege | L 1–3 A | L 1–2 A |
| Anderlecht | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Gent | L 1–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Zulte Waregem | L 1–2 H | W 3–2 H |
| Cercle Brugge | W 3–2 A | D 2–2 A |
| Dender | W 3–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| Antwerp | D 1–1 H | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H |
| St. Truiden | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| OH Leuven | D 2–2 A | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Points | 17 of 51 · 1.00 per game | 24 of 51 · 1.41 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 Charleroi wins1 draws1 Genk wins
Goals per game0.33 – 0.33
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets67% · 67%
- 17 Sep 2025Genk0–1Charleroi
- 23 Feb 2024Charleroi0–1Genk
- 20 Aug 2023Genk0–0Charleroi
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Charleroi | Genk | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.06 | 1.22 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.28 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.33 | 2.56 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 39% | 56% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 28% | 11% | |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 78% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 6% | |
| Failed to score | 28% | 17% | |
| Games | 18 | 18 |
| Charleroi | Genk | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.70 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.50 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 40% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Charleroi | Genk | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 5.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.83 | 3.72 | |
| Match total | 9.33 | 9.61 | 9.60 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 10/18 | 56% 10/18 | |
| Over 9.5 | 39% 7/18 | 44% 8/18 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 6/18 | 33% 6/18 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.94 | 1.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.72 | 2.83 | |
| Match total | 3.66 | 4.16 | 4.02 |
| Over 3.5 | 44% 8/18 | 61% 11/18 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 6/18 | 44% 8/18 | |
| Charleroi | Genk | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 5.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 4.60 | |
| Match total | 9.60 | 9.80 | 9.60 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 3.20 | 4.02 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Simon Bourdeaud'hui 19 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.58league 3.78
Red cards0.05league 0.19
Cards 5+32%league 41%
Fouls23.4league 22.9
Penalties0.16league 0.30
Home wins37%league 41%
Charleroi6 with this referee
Record2-1-3
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L22 Nov 25A · Club Brugge KV0–10
- L18 Oct 25A · Union St. Gilloise1–33
- W17 Sep 25A · Genk1–02
- D17 Aug 25H · Antwerp1–13
- L23 Dec 23A · St. Truiden0–10
Genk2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L17 Sep 25H · Charleroi0–10
- W10 Dec 23A · AS Eupen3–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Charleroi18 games · scored 19 · conceded 23
3
4
0-15
2
4
16-30
6
3
31-45
2
5
46-60
1
4
61-75
5
3
76-90
Genk18 games · scored 22 · conceded 24
4
8
0-15
4
2
16-30
3
5
31-45
5
4
46-60
1
2
61-75
5
3
76-90
Charleroi10 games · scored 7 · conceded 13
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
4
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
76-90
Genk10 games · scored 12 · conceded 13
1
4
0-15
1
2
16-30
4
1
31-45
3
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
