Charleroi vs OH Leuven – 14 Mar 2026

Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sat, Mar 14 · 15:00 Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Charleroi

Charleroi 11th · 34 pts · 28 played LLLLD

First leg2–2 0–2Full time

OH Leuven 14th · 28 pts · 28 played WWLLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Charleroi were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards OH Leuven. Charleroi had 6.9 days of rest, OH Leuven 7 and had to travel 53 km.

Away travel53 kmRest days6.9 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2

Charleroi45%

Draw25%

OH Leuven30%

Expected goals 1.68 – 1.34

Charleroi47%

Draw26%

OH Leuven27%

Expected goals 1.58 – 1.13

Charleroi45%

Draw25%

OH Leuven30%

Expected goals 1.68 – 1.34

Charleroi37%

Draw25%

OH Leuven37%

Expected goals 1.50 – 1.50

Charleroi45%

Draw25%

OH Leuven30%

Expected goals 1.70 – 1.37

Over 2.5 58% Both score 61% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Charleroi)

No weather data yet

RefereeJasper Vergoote

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.45
Matches 47

Team strength

Charleroi

OH Leuven

26 L90 StrengthIn forecast 22

38 Current StrengthIn forecast 18

43 AttackIn forecast 17

50 DefenceIn forecast 30

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Charleroi

Attack—

Defense risk—

OH Leuven

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Charleroi

OH Leuven

1.36 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.04

1.39 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.54

1.17 xGVia Att/Def 1.23

1.22 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.40

+0.19 Goals minus xGContext -0.19

82% Scored inContext 68%

25% Clean sheetsContext 21%

12.39 ShotsContext 13.21

4.44 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.33

35% On target shareContext 32%

7.77 Shots in the boxContext 9.04

61% Box shareContext 68%

11% ConversionContext 8%

2.52 OffsidesContext 2.12

11.75 Shots allowedContext 12.93

3.93 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.68

3.37 BlocksContext 3.48

2.83 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.30

69% Save rateContext 69%

49% PossessionIn forecast 45%

377 PassesContext 331

303 Accurate passesContext 254

80% Pass accuracyContext 77%

6.84 Team ratingContext 6.73

11.46 FoulsContext 15.18

10.50 Fouls sufferedContext 11.39

1.96 Yellow cardsContext 3.00

0.11 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 28 and 28 games

1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.43 xGVia Att/Def 1.60

1.51 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.61

+0.47 Goals minus xGContext -0.60

100% Scored inContext 50%

30% Clean sheetsContext 20%

16.20 ShotsContext 14.90

5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

31% On target shareContext 27%

10.11 Shots in the boxContext 10.80

61% Box shareContext 73%

12% ConversionContext 7%

2.63 OffsidesContext 3.00

12.40 Shots allowedContext 15.10

4.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.90

3.00 BlocksContext 4.80

3.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.30

66% Save rateContext 67%

51% PossessionIn forecast 47%

403 PassesContext 330

330 Accurate passesContext 250

82% Pass accuracyContext 76%

6.83 Team ratingContext 6.76

12.40 FoulsContext 13.60

8.60 Fouls sufferedContext 12.00

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 3.20

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Charleroi

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km117 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

OH Leuven

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel53 km49 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Charleroi	OH Leuven
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 7 Mar	7Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 7 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	53 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	117 km	49 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	8.1	8.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Charleroi Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

30M. Koné(G)

24M. Nzita 95C. Keita 4A. Ousou 27L. Blum

5É. Camara 22Y. Titraoui

10P. Guiagon 8J. Romsaas 14P. Pflücke

21A. Scheidler

OH Leuven Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

16M. Prévot(G)

34R. Nyakossi 3Noë Dussenne 28E. Pletinckx

30T. Akimoto 4B. Verstraete 24Ł. Łakomy 27Óscar Gil

14H. Teklab 10Y. Maziz

19C. Ikwuemesi

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Charleroi Absences are shown before kick-off

OH Leuven Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Charleroi+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
OH Leuven+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Charleroi · Home 1.21points per game · 14 home games

W-D-L: 4-5-5
Scored: 1.43
Conceded: 1.36

OH Leuven · Away 1.00points per game · 14 away games

W-D-L: 4-2-8
Scored: 0.86
Conceded: 1.79

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 14 this season

Opponent	Charleroi	OH Leuven
Dender	D 2–2 AW 3–1 H	W 3–2 HW 1–0 A
Club Brugge KV	L 1–2 HL 0–1 A	L 1–2 AL 0–1 H
KVC Westerlo	L 1–2 AW 2–0 H	L 0–1 HL 0–2 A
Gent	L 2–3 HL 1–2 A	W 3–1 AW 4–0 H
Cercle Brugge	L 3–4 HW 3–2 A	L 0–2 HW 2–1 A
St. Truiden	W 2–0 AD 1–1 H	L 0–1 AL 1–2 H
Antwerp	W 2–0 AD 1–1 H	L 1–3 A
Standard Liege	W 2–0 HL 1–3 A	W 1–0 AW 1–0 H
Anderlecht	W 2–1 AW 1–0 H	L 1–5 AD 1–1 H
Genk	D 2–2 HW 1–0 A	L 1–2 AL 1–2 H
Union St. Gilloise	D 1–1 HL 1–3 A	D 0–0 HL 0–5 A
KV Mechelen	L 0–1 AL 0–2 H	D 2–2 HD 1–1 A
RAAL La Louvière	D 0–0 HL 0–1 A	D 0–0 AL 1–2 H
Zulte Waregem	L 1–2 H	D 1–1 HL 0–2 A
Points	33 of 81 · 1.22 per game	27 of 81 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

0 Charleroi wins3 draws0 OH Leuven wins

Goals per game1.00 – 1.00 Over 2.533% Both scored67% Clean sheets33% · 33%

27 Jul 2025OH Leuven2–2Charleroi
17 Feb 2024OH Leuven0–0Charleroi
29 Jul 2023Charleroi1–1OH Leuven

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Charleroi	OH Leuven	Forecast
Scored per game	1.36	1.04
Conceded per game	1.39	1.54
Match goals	2.75	2.57	3.02
Over 1.5	79%	71%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	58%
Over 3.5	32%	29%
Both teams scored	61%	54%	61%
Clean sheets	25%	21%
Failed to score	18%	32%
Games	28	28

	Charleroi	OH Leuven	Forecast
Scored per game	1.90	1.00
Conceded per game	1.60	1.60
Match goals	3.50	2.60	3.02
Over 1.5	100%	60%
Over 2.5	70%	50%	58%
Over 3.5	40%	40%
Both teams scored	70%	50%	61%
Clean sheets	30%	20%
Failed to score	0%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Charleroi	OH Leuven	League
Corners
Corners won	5.26	4.96
Corners conceded	4.81	5.81
Match total	10.07	10.77	9.88
Over 8.5	63% 17/27	67% 18/27
Over 9.5	48% 13/27	63% 17/27
Over 10.5	41% 11/27	59% 16/27
Cards
Cards	2.11	3.04
Opponent cards	1.71	2.39
Match total	3.82	5.43	4.07
Over 3.5	50% 14/28	79% 22/28
Over 4.5	36% 10/28	61% 17/28

	Charleroi	OH Leuven	League
Corners
Corners won	6.78	6.00
Corners conceded	4.78	7.40
Match total	11.56	13.40	9.88
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	90% 9/10
Over 9.5	67% 6/9	90% 9/10
Over 10.5	56% 5/9	90% 9/10
Cards
Cards	2.40	3.20
Opponent cards	1.70	2.70
Match total	4.10	5.90	4.07
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jasper Vergoote 47 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.70league 3.85

Red cards0.28league 0.19

Cards 5+30%league 40%

Fouls23.7league 22.7

Penalties0.45league 0.32

Home wins57%league 41%

Charleroi4 with this referee

Record2-0-2 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.5 Pens for · against0 · 2

W18 Jan 26H · Standard Liege2–02
W14 Sep 25A · Cercle Brugge3–22
L28 Oct 23A · AS Eupen0–22
L1 Oct 23A · Union St. Gilloise1–32

OH Leuven3 with this referee

Record1-0-2 Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against1 · 1

L21 Feb 26A · Club Brugge KV1–21
W24 Aug 25A · Dender1–04
L16 Dec 23H · Cercle Brugge1–24

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.