Charleroi
Attack—
Defense risk—
Charleroi
10th · 18 pts · 15 played
LWLWL
First leg0–1
0–0Full time
RAAL La Louvière
11th · 17 pts · 15 played
DDWLL
Our take
Charleroi were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Charleroi usually keep the ball (45% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Charleroi had 7 days of rest, RAAL La Louvière 6.1 and had to travel 20 km.
Away travel20 kmRest days7 · 6.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Charleroi40%
Draw28%
RAAL La Louvière31%
Charleroi40%
Draw27%
RAAL La Louvière32%
Charleroi40%
Draw28%
RAAL La Louvière31%
Charleroi34%
Draw28%
RAAL La Louvière38%
Charleroi40%
Draw27%
RAAL La Louvière32%
Over 2.5 45%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Charleroi)
No weather data yet
RefereeBram Van Driessche
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.18
- Matches 34
Team strength
CharleroiRAAL La Louvière
22
L90 StrengthIn forecast
26
38
Current StrengthIn forecast
17
43
AttackIn forecast
15
50
DefenceIn forecast
15
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRAAL La Louvière
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
CharleroiRAAL La Louvière
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.73
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.04
xGVia Att/Def
0.74
1.10
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.16
+0.16
Goals minus xGContext
-0.01
80%
Scored inContext
53%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
10.07
ShotsContext
8.67
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.47
40%
On target shareContext
29%
6.13
Shots in the boxContext
6.21
60%
Box shareContext
69%
12%
ConversionContext
9%
2.62
OffsidesContext
2.18
11.73
Shots allowedContext
11.53
3.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.71
3.79
BlocksContext
3.07
2.62
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.64
71%
Save rateContext
77%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
33%
357
PassesContext
244
283
Accurate passesContext
169
79%
Pass accuracyContext
69%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.74
11.13
FoulsContext
11.87
11.60
Fouls sufferedContext
11.73
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.93
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.04
xGVia Att/Def
0.79
1.17
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.15
+0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.11
80%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
9.80
ShotsContext
8.40
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.60
41%
On target shareContext
31%
5.70
Shots in the boxContext
6.44
59%
Box shareContext
74%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
3.00
OffsidesContext
2.43
12.60
Shots allowedContext
11.90
3.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.56
4.44
BlocksContext
3.44
2.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
70%
Save rateContext
73%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
32%
340
PassesContext
233
267
Accurate passesContext
161
78%
Pass accuracyContext
69%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.72
9.50
FoulsContext
11.80
10.40
Fouls sufferedContext
11.30
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Charleroi
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km247 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
RAAL La Louvière
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel20 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Charleroi |
RAAL La Louvière |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 22 Nov | 6.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 23 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 20 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 247 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.7 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Charleroi
Confirmed XI
30M. Koné(G)
24M. Nzita
95C. Keita
32M. Boukamir
27L. Blum
5É. Camara
22Y. Titraoui
10P. Guiagon
14P. Pflücke
17A. Bernier
21A. Scheidler
RAAL La Louvière
Confirmed XI
21M. Peano(G)
25D. Lamego
99Y. Okou
4Wagane Faye
3N. Gillot
15S. Lahssaini
23J. Ito
11J. Liongola
10M. Pau
29O. Mendy
22J. Afriyie
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Charleroi
Absences are shown before kick-off
RAAL La Louvière
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Charleroi+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- RAAL La Louvière+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Charleroi · Home
1.57points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-2
- Scored
- 1.29
- Conceded
- 1.00
RAAL La Louvière · Away
0.71points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-4
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.57
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Charleroi | RAAL La Louvière |
|---|---|---|
| Club Brugge KV | L 0–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| KVC Westerlo | W 2–0 H | D 0–0 H |
| Standard Liege | L 1–3 A | L 0–2 H |
| Anderlecht | W 1–0 H | L 0–1 H |
| Union St. Gilloise | L 1–3 A | D 0–0 H |
| Gent | L 1–2 A | L 0–1 A |
| KV Mechelen | L 0–2 H | L 2–3 A |
| Zulte Waregem | L 1–2 H | D 0–0 H |
| Genk | W 1–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| Cercle Brugge | W 3–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| Dender | W 3–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| Antwerp | D 1–1 H | L 1–3 A |
| St. Truiden | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| OH Leuven | D 2–2 A | W 2–1 A |
| Points | 18 of 42 · 1.29 per game | 14 of 42 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Charleroi wins0 draws1 RAAL La Louvière wins
Goals per game0.00 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets0% · 100%
- 10 Aug 2025RAAL La Louvière1–0Charleroi
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Charleroi | RAAL La Louvière | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 0.73 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 1.73 | 2.49 |
| Over 1.5 | 73% | 47% | |
| Over 2.5 | 47% | 33% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 13% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 47% | |
| Games | 15 | 15 |
| Charleroi | RAAL La Louvière | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 1.90 | 2.49 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 40% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Charleroi | RAAL La Louvière | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.53 | 3.73 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.67 | 3.80 | |
| Match total | 9.20 | 7.53 | 9.51 |
| Over 8.5 | 47% 7/15 | 33% 5/15 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 5/15 | 27% 4/15 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 5/15 | 20% 3/15 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.13 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.67 | |
| Match total | 3.73 | 3.67 | 4.09 |
| Over 3.5 | 47% 7/15 | 53% 8/15 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 5/15 | 33% 5/15 | |
| Charleroi | RAAL La Louvière | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.70 | 3.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 4.20 | |
| Match total | 9.70 | 7.80 | 9.51 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 4.00 | 4.09 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bram Van Driessche 34 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.26league 3.88
Red cards0.29league 0.20
Cards 5+41%league 44%
Fouls22.1league 23.1
Penalties0.18league 0.29
Home wins50%league 42%
Charleroi4 with this referee
Record2-0-2
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L28 Sep 25H · KV Mechelen0–20
- W1 Mar 24A · KVC Westerlo1–04
- W25 Nov 23H · KVC Westerlo3–23
- L16 Sep 23A · Club Brugge KV2–43
RAAL La Louvière1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.4.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- L8 Nov 25A · Antwerp1–34
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Charleroi15 games · scored 18 · conceded 21
3
3
0-15
2
4
16-30
6
2
31-45
2
5
46-60
1
4
61-75
4
3
76-90
RAAL La Louvière15 games · scored 11 · conceded 15
1
2
0-15
5
2
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
6
76-90
Charleroi10 games · scored 11 · conceded 15
2
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
4
2
31-45
1
5
46-60
1
3
61-75
1
2
76-90
RAAL La Louvière10 games · scored 9 · conceded 10
1
1
0-15
4
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
