Charleroi
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Charleroi
10th · 18 pts · 15 played
LWLWL
First leg0–1
0–0Full time
RAAL La Louvière
11th · 17 pts · 15 played
DDWLL
Charleroi40.5%fair odds 2.47
Draw28.3%fair odds 3.54
RAAL La Louvière31.3%fair odds 3.20
Expected goals1.34 – 1.15total 2.49
Likeliest score1–113.4%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
RAAL La Louvière
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Charleroi ↓ · RAAL La Louvière → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 8.8 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.4 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Charleroi goals, columns RAAL La Louvière goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.4%7.44
- 1–010.4%9.58
- 0–09.0%11.17
- 0–18.8%11.32
- 2–18.6%11.67
- 2–07.5%13.41
- 1–27.3%13.63
- 0–25.5%18.29
- 2–24.9%20.30
- 3–13.8%26.07
Winning margin
6.8%
Charleroi by 3+
fair 14.61
12.1%
Charleroi by 2
fair 8.25
21.5%
Charleroi by 1
fair 4.65
28.3%
Draw
fair 3.54
18.3%
RAAL La Louvière by 1
fair 5.46
8.9%
RAAL La Louvière by 2
fair 11.26
4.1%
RAAL La Louvière by 3+
fair 24.59
Goal distribution
Total goals
9%0
19%1
26%2
21%3
13%4
11%5+
Charleroi goals
26%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
RAAL La Louvière goals
32%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charleroi win | 40.5% | 40.4% | +0.0 pp |
| Draw | 28.3% | 27.1% | +1.1 pp |
| RAAL La Louvière win | 31.3% | 32.4% | -1.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 45.4% | 50.1% | -4.7 pp |
| Both teams score | 51.1% | 54.9% | -3.8 pp |
| Expected goals Charleroi | 1.34 | 1.43 | -0.08 |
| Expected goals RAAL La Louvière | 1.15 | 1.25 | -0.10 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Charleroi win40.5%2.47
- Draw28.3%3.54
- RAAL La Louvière win31.3%3.20
- Double chance Charleroi or draw68.7%1.45
- Double chance Charleroi or RAAL La Louvière71.7%1.39
- Double chance RAAL La Louvière or draw59.5%1.68
- Draw no bet Charleroi56.4%1.77
- Draw no bet RAAL La Louvière43.6%2.29
Goals
- Over 0.591.0%1.10
- Over 1.571.8%1.39
- Over 2.545.4%2.20
- Over 3.524.1%4.16
- Over 4.510.8%9.28
- Under 1.528.2%3.54
- Under 2.554.6%1.83
- Under 3.575.9%1.32
Both teams to score
- Yes51.1%1.96
- No48.9%2.05
- Yes and over 2.537.7%2.65
- Charleroi win and yes17.7%5.64
- Draw and yes19.3%5.18
- RAAL La Louvière win and yes14.1%7.09
Team goals
- Charleroi over 0.573.9%1.35
- Charleroi over 1.538.8%2.58
- Charleroi over 2.515.3%6.55
- RAAL La Louvière over 0.568.3%1.46
- RAAL La Louvière over 1.531.9%3.14
- RAAL La Louvière over 2.511.0%9.12
- Charleroi clean sheet31.7%3.16
- RAAL La Louvière clean sheet26.1%3.83
- Charleroi win to nil22.7%4.40
- RAAL La Louvière win to nil17.2%5.83
Handicap
- Charleroi −1.519.0%5.27
- Charleroi −2.56.8%14.61
- RAAL La Louvière +1.581.0%1.23
- RAAL La Louvière +2.593.2%1.07
- RAAL La Louvière −1.512.9%7.72
- Charleroi +1.587.1%1.15
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored123
Favourite won45.5%
Avg chance given to result38.2%
1X2 Brier0.614
Over 2.5 called right52.0%
BTTS called right51.2%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 21 | 38.3% | 28.6% |
| 40–50% | 66 | 44.9% | 36.4% |
| 50–60% | 23 | 55.0% | 65.2% |
| 60–70% | 10 | 65.2% | 90.0% |
| 70–80% | 3 | 74.4% | 66.7% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 85 of 123 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6179 | 0.6113 |
| Avg chance given to result | 38.3% | 39.1% |
| Favourite won | 44.7% | 47.1% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 85 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✗Zulte Waregem 1–1 Cercle Brugge47·27·27
- ✗Dender 2–2 KVC Westerlo42·27·31
- ✗KV Mechelen 0–1 Standard Liege49·26·25
- ✗OH Leuven 1–2 St. Truiden38·27·35
- ✓RAAL La Louvière 0–1 Anderlecht29·28·43
- ✗Antwerp 1–2 Dender57·24·19
- ✗Genk 0–1 KV Mechelen51·25·24
- ✓Club Brugge KV 1–0 Charleroi73·17·10
- ✗KVC Westerlo 0–0 Gent32·27·41
- ✓Union St. Gilloise 2–0 Cercle Brugge66·21·14
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 123 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.