Charleroi
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Charleroi had 7.1 days of rest, St. Truiden 7 and had to travel.
Rest days7.1 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Charleroi39%
Draw27%
St. Truiden33%
Charleroi40%
Draw27%
St. Truiden33%
Charleroi39%
Draw27%
St. Truiden33%
Charleroi32%
Draw27%
St. Truiden40%
Charleroi40%
Draw27%
St. Truiden33%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Charleroi)
No weather data yet
RefereeKevin Van Damme
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.46
- Matches 13
Team strength
Charleroi
St. Truiden
21
L90 StrengthIn forecast
26
38
Current StrengthIn forecast
35
43
AttackIn forecast
37
50
DefenceIn forecast
32
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSt. Truiden
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
CharleroiSt. Truiden
—
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
—
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
—
Scored inContext
—
—
Clean sheetsContext
—
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
—
—
Pass accuracyContext
—
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Team ratingContext
—
—
FoulsContext
—
—
Fouls sufferedContext
—
—
Yellow cardsContext
—
—
Red cardsContext
—
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
40%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
9.50
ShotsContext
13.10
3.71
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.78
34%
On target shareContext
33%
5.75
Shots in the boxContext
8.10
60%
Box shareContext
61%
5%
ConversionContext
11%
3.14
OffsidesContext
1.71
12.63
Shots allowedContext
12.60
4.57
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
4.29
BlocksContext
3.90
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
66%
Save rateContext
65%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
384
PassesContext
560
281
Accurate passesContext
478
73%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.79
Team ratingContext
7.00
13.88
FoulsContext
10.30
12.38
Fouls sufferedContext
11.20
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Charleroi
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km107 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
St. Truiden
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Charleroi |
St. Truiden |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 27 Jul | 7Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 27 Jul |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 107 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.8 | 5.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Charleroi
Confirmed XI
55M. Delavallée(G)
24M. Nzita
44M. Sow
4A. Ousou
98J. Pétris
5É. Camara
22Y. Titraoui
7I. Mbenza
25A. Colassin
29Ž. Rogelj
19N. Štulić
St. Truiden
Confirmed XI
16L. Kokubo(G)
3T. Hata
26V. Musliu
20R. Van Helden
19L. Patris
13R. Ito
6R. Yamamoto
8A. Sissako
10I. Sebaoui
9A. Ferrari
60R. Vanwesemael
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Charleroi
Absences are shown before kick-off
St. Truiden
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Charleroi+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- St. Truiden+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Charleroi · Home
No home games yet this season.
St. Truiden · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Charleroi wins1 draws1 St. Truiden wins
Goals per game0.50 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 23 Dec 2023St. Truiden1–0Charleroi
- 3 Sep 2023Charleroi1–1St. Truiden
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Charleroi | St. Truiden | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 3.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 4.00 | 2.66 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
| Charleroi | St. Truiden | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 3.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 4.00 | 2.66 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Charleroi | St. Truiden | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 8.00 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 12.00 | 10.00 | 8.87 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 100% 1/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 2.00 | 3.60 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 1/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Charleroi | St. Truiden | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.75 | 5.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.63 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 9.38 | 10.10 | 8.87 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Kevin Van Damme 13 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.69league 3.53
Red cards0.15league 0.07
Cards 5+46%league 27%
Fouls22.9league 23.3
Penalties0.46league 0.40
Home wins31%league 47%
Charleroi2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L23 Feb 24H · Genk0–12
- D20 Aug 23A · Genk0–00
St. Truiden4 with this referee
Record1-0-3
Cards · opp.0.8 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 2
- W17 Mar 24H · Club Brugge KV2–10
- L3 Mar 24A · Antwerp0–30
- L4 Feb 24A · Cercle Brugge1–42
- L8 Oct 23H · Union St. Gilloise0–41
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Charleroi1 games · scored 2 · conceded 2
1
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
2
1
76-90
St. Truiden1 games · scored 3 · conceded 1
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
3
1
76-90
Charleroi10 games · scored 5 · conceded 14
2
0-15
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
St. Truiden10 games · scored 14 · conceded 16
1
4
0-15
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
4
46-60
1
4
61-75
8
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
