Charleroi
Attack—
Defense risk—
Charleroi
11th · 24 pts · 20 played
DLDDW
First leg1–3
2–0Full time
Standard Liege
8th · 27 pts · 20 played
WWLWL
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Charleroi had 22.9 days of rest, Standard Liege 23 and had to travel 83 km.
Away travel83 kmRest days22.9 · 23Matches / 14d0 · 0
Charleroi40%
Draw28%
Standard Liege32%
Charleroi40%
Draw27%
Standard Liege33%
Charleroi40%
Draw28%
Standard Liege32%
Charleroi33%
Draw28%
Standard Liege39%
Charleroi40%
Draw27%
Standard Liege33%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Charleroi)
No weather data yet
RefereeJasper Vergoote
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.49
- Matches 41
Team strength
CharleroiStandard Liege
24
L90 StrengthIn forecast
28
38
Current StrengthIn forecast
33
43
AttackIn forecast
29
50
DefenceIn forecast
29
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisStandard Liege
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
CharleroiStandard Liege
1.15
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.15
1.06
xGVia Att/Def
0.89
1.06
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.29
+0.09
Goals minus xGContext
+0.01
75%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.75
ShotsContext
9.45
4.26
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.35
38%
On target shareContext
35%
6.84
Shots in the boxContext
6.37
62%
Box shareContext
65%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
2.47
OffsidesContext
2.57
11.55
Shots allowedContext
13.85
3.63
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.45
3.58
BlocksContext
3.95
2.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.47
71%
Save rateContext
76%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
362
PassesContext
358
287
Accurate passesContext
277
79%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.82
11.30
FoulsContext
11.00
11.10
Fouls sufferedContext
11.80
1.95
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.20
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.19
xGVia Att/Def
0.76
1.06
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.28
-0.19
Goals minus xGContext
+0.14
70%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
11.50
ShotsContext
9.10
4.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.40
36%
On target shareContext
37%
7.89
Shots in the boxContext
6.89
66%
Box shareContext
70%
9%
ConversionContext
10%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.80
12.40
Shots allowedContext
12.90
3.89
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.90
3.60
BlocksContext
3.50
3.29
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
77%
Save rateContext
76%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
358
PassesContext
352
283
Accurate passesContext
269
79%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.80
10.50
FoulsContext
11.80
10.60
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.30
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Charleroi
Rest22.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Standard Liege
Rest23 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel83 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Charleroi |
Standard Liege |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 22.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 26 Dec | 23Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 26 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 83 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 1 | 0 / 0 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.8 | 5.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Charleroi
Confirmed XI
55M. Delavallée(G)
24M. Nzita
95C. Keita
4A. Ousou
3K. Van Den Kerkhof
56A. Boukamir
40Y. Khalifi
10P. Guiagon
14P. Pflücke
17A. Bernier
21A. Scheidler
Standard Liege
Confirmed XI
1M. Epolo(G)
7T. Mohr
25I. Hautekiet
29D. Dierckx
18H. Lawrence
17R. Saïd
23M. Ilaimaharitra
94C. Nielsen
11A. Abid
9T. Henry
10D. Eckert Ayensa
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Charleroi
Absences are shown before kick-off
Standard Liege
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Charleroi+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Standard Liege+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Charleroi · Home
1.40points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-5-2
- Scored
- 1.20
- Conceded
- 1.00
Standard Liege · Away
1.50points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-0-5
- Scored
- 0.80
- Conceded
- 1.10
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Charleroi | Standard Liege |
|---|---|---|
| Anderlecht | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Genk | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| Union St. Gilloise | D 1–1 HL 1–3 A | L 0–3 A |
| KV Mechelen | L 0–1 AL 0–2 H | W 1–0 AD 1–1 H |
| RAAL La Louvière | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A | W 2–0 A |
| Club Brugge KV | L 0–1 A | L 1–2 H |
| KVC Westerlo | W 2–0 H | W 2–0 A |
| Gent | L 1–2 A | L 0–4 A |
| Zulte Waregem | L 1–2 H | D 0–0 H |
| Cercle Brugge | W 3–2 A | W 2–1 AL 0–3 H |
| Dender | W 3–1 H | W 1–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Antwerp | D 1–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| St. Truiden | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A |
| OH Leuven | D 2–2 A | L 0–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Points | 24 of 57 · 1.26 per game | 24 of 57 · 1.26 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 Charleroi wins2 draws1 Standard Liege wins
Goals per game0.67 – 1.33
Over 2.533%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 33%
- 31 Oct 2025Standard Liege3–1Charleroi
- 16 Dec 2023Standard Liege0–0Charleroi
- 13 Aug 2023Charleroi1–1Standard Liege
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Charleroi | Standard Liege | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.15 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.15 | |
| Match goals | 2.45 | 2.05 | 2.58 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 45% | 40% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 35% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 40% | |
| Games | 20 | 20 |
| Charleroi | Standard Liege | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 1.90 | 2.58 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 40% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 40% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Charleroi | Standard Liege | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.60 | 3.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 5.35 | |
| Match total | 9.40 | 9.05 | 9.67 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 12/20 | 45% 9/20 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 8/20 | 30% 6/20 | |
| Over 10.5 | 35% 7/20 | 20% 4/20 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.05 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.65 | 4.20 | 4.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 45% 9/20 | 70% 14/20 | |
| Over 4.5 | 35% 7/20 | 50% 10/20 | |
| Charleroi | Standard Liege | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.20 | 3.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.10 | 5.10 | |
| Match total | 10.30 | 8.40 | 9.67 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 3.60 | 4.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jasper Vergoote 41 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.90league 3.82
Red cards0.29league 0.19
Cards 5+34%league 40%
Fouls23.3league 22.9
Penalties0.49league 0.29
Home wins54%league 42%
Charleroi3 with this referee
Record1-0-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.7
Pens for · against0 · 2
- W14 Sep 25A · Cercle Brugge3–22
- L28 Oct 23A · AS Eupen0–22
- L1 Oct 23A · Union St. Gilloise1–32
Standard Liege6 with this referee
Record0-0-6
Cards · opp.2.2 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds2
- L26 Dec 25H · St. Truiden1–22
- L27 Sep 25H · Club Brugge KV1–25
- L16 Feb 24A · KVC Westerlo1–21
- L3 Dec 23A · Club Brugge KV0–22
- L19 Aug 23H · Cercle Brugge0–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Charleroi20 games · scored 23 · conceded 26
5
5
0-15
2
5
16-30
7
3
31-45
2
5
46-60
1
5
61-75
6
3
76-90
Standard Liege20 games · scored 18 · conceded 23
4
3
0-15
3
2
16-30
5
5
31-45
5
2
46-60
1
6
61-75
5
76-90
Charleroi10 games · scored 10 · conceded 12
2
2
0-15
3
16-30
4
1
31-45
4
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
76-90
Standard Liege10 games · scored 9 · conceded 10
2
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
61-75
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
