Chelsea vs Bournemouth – 10 Oct 2026

Premier League Gameweek 6 Sat, Oct 10 · 15:00 Stamford Bridge, London

Chelsea 10th · 7 pts · 5 played WWLDL

5–1Full time

Bournemouth 17th · 3 pts · 5 played LDDDL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. Chelsea were without C. Palmer and M. Caicedo. Bournemouth were without A. Scott. Chelsea had 21.8 days of rest, Bournemouth 20 and had to travel 151 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel151 kmRest days21.8 · 20Matches / 14d0 · 0

Chelsea41%

Draw24%

Bournemouth35%

Expected goals 1.60 – 1.44

Chelsea40%

Draw26%

Bournemouth34%

Expected goals 1.41 – 1.27

Chelsea42%

Draw24%

Bournemouth34%

Expected goals 1.61 – 1.45

Chelsea34%

Draw24%

Bournemouth42%

Expected goals 1.42 – 1.61

Chelsea41%

Draw24%

Bournemouth35%

Expected goals 1.59 – 1.45

Over 2.5 58% Both score 61% Likeliest score 1–1

Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (London)

15°CPartly cloudy

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 19 km/h
Humidity 42%

RefereeSamuel Barrott

Cards per match 3.7
Penalties per match 0.24
Matches 91

Team strength

Chelsea

Bournemouth

72 L90 StrengthIn forecast 77

77 Current StrengthIn forecast 77

77 AttackIn forecast 83

74 DefenceIn forecast 82

69 Form indexContext 58

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Chelsea

Attack—

Defense risk—

Bournemouth

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Chelsea

Bournemouth

2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

2.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.46 xGVia Att/Def 1.34

1.76 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.39

+0.54 Goals minus xGContext -0.14

80% Scored inContext 80%

0% Clean sheetsContext 0%

14.40 ShotsContext 13.60

5.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.20

36% On target shareContext 38%

9.40 Shots in the boxContext 8.20

63% Box shareContext 63%

14% ConversionContext 9%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.25

14.40 Shots allowedContext 10.80

6.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

4.00 BlocksContext 3.00

4.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.67

69% Save rateContext 69%

47% PossessionIn forecast 48%

419 PassesContext 402

348 Accurate passesContext 321

83% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.98 Team ratingContext 6.84

8.60 FoulsContext 12.00

11.80 Fouls sufferedContext 14.00

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 2.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 5 and 5 games

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

2.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

1.18 xGVia Att/Def 1.42

1.71 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.38

+0.32 Goals minus xGContext -0.02

80% Scored inContext 90%

0% Clean sheetsContext 20%

12.20 ShotsContext 13.20

4.56 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50

34% On target shareContext 34%

7.40 Shots in the boxContext 7.60

58% Box shareContext 60%

12% ConversionContext 11%

1.88 OffsidesContext 2.44

13.10 Shots allowedContext 11.90

5.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.80

3.20 BlocksContext 3.78

3.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

63% Save rateContext 71%

50% PossessionIn forecast 48%

462 PassesContext 406

391 Accurate passesContext 329

85% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.84 Team ratingContext 6.94

10.10 FoulsContext 12.70

13.40 Fouls sufferedContext 12.50

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Chelsea WWLDL

Rest21.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 69 · 7 pts vs 4.7 for an average club · +0.5 vs expected

L18 SepA · Brentford0–31.2 xPts
D12 SepH · Hull City2–22.3 xPts
L6 SepA · Arsenal1–20.6 xPts
W30 AugH · Brighton4–31.3 xPts
W24 AugA · Fulham3–21.2 xPts

Bournemouth DDDWL

Rest20 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel151 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 58 · 6 pts vs 5.2 for an average club · -2.3 vs expected

L20 SepH · Liverpool0–11.6 xPts
W17 SepA · Real Sociedad2–11.8 xPts
D12 SepH · Brentford2–21.7 xPts
D5 SepA · Newcastle2–21.3 xPts
D29 AugH · Everton1–11.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Chelsea	Bournemouth
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	21.8Premier League 2026-2027, 18 Sep	20Premier League 2026-2027, 20 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	151 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 2	0 / 0 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	6.9	5.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Chelsea Confirmed XI

3-4-3

1E. Martínez(G)

6L. Colwill 5M. Lacroix 34J. Acheampong

29Pep Chavarría 25M. Caicedo 14J. Henderson 7Pedro Neto

17M. Rogers 9João Pedro 10C. Palmer

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Bournemouth Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Đ. Petrović(G)

3A. Truffert 14António Silva 5J. Hill 15A. Smith

10R. Christie 12T. Adams

16M. Tavernier 37Rayan 7D. Brooks

9Evanilson

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Chelsea Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.04 goals

Attack line −28.5% · Defence line −14.6% of weighted minutes

MID C. Palmer Starter 7.07 Att −6.9% Def −4.1%
MID M. Caicedo Starter 7.07 Att −6.8% Def −4.1%
ATT João Pedro Starter 7.09 Att −13.2%
DEF R. James Starter 7.14 Def −6.4%
ATT J. Gittens Rotation 6.68 Att −1.6%

2 without recent minutes (no impact): E. Emegha, M. Palestra

Bournemouth Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.03 goals

Attack line −30.8% · Defence line −10.1% of weighted minutes

MID A. Scott Starter 7.09 Att −12.7% Def −8.5%
ATT E. Kroupi Rotation 6.78 Att −7.3%
ATT J. Kluivert Rotation 6.63 Att −4.8%
ATT A. Adli Rotation 6.83 Att −4.1%
MID D. Brooks Rotation 6.62 Att −1.9% Def −1.2%
DEF V. Milosavljević Depth 6.80 Def −0.4%

1 without recent minutes (no impact): J. Araujo

Total impact vs full squads

Chelsea-0.2 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
Bournemouth+0.1 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Chelsea · Home 2.00points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 1-1-0
Scored: 3.00
Conceded: 2.50

Bournemouth · Away 0.50points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 0-1-1
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent	Chelsea	Bournemouth
Brentford	L 0–3 A	D 2–2 H
Points	0 of 3 · 0.00 per game	1 of 3 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

4 Chelsea wins4 draws0 Bournemouth wins

Goals per game1.50 – 0.75 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 25%

30 Dec 2025Chelsea2–2Bournemouth
6 Dec 2025Bournemouth0–0Chelsea
14 Jan 2025Chelsea2–2Bournemouth
14 Sep 2024Bournemouth0–1Chelsea
19 May 2024Chelsea2–1Bournemouth
17 Sep 2023Bournemouth0–0Chelsea

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Chelsea	Bournemouth	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	1.20
Conceded per game	2.40	1.60
Match goals	4.40	2.80	3.04
Over 1.5	100%	80%
Over 2.5	100%	60%	58%
Over 3.5	60%	40%
Both teams scored	80%	80%	61%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	20%	20%
Games	5	5

	Chelsea	Bournemouth	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	1.40
Conceded per game	2.20	1.10
Match goals	3.70	2.50	3.04
Over 1.5	100%	80%
Over 2.5	90%	50%	58%
Over 3.5	40%	20%
Both teams scored	80%	70%	61%
Clean sheets	0%	20%
Failed to score	20%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Chelsea	Bournemouth	League
Corners
Corners won	6.60	4.20
Corners conceded	5.20	4.60
Match total	11.80	8.80	9.42
Over 8.5	80% 4/5	40% 2/5
Over 9.5	80% 4/5	40% 2/5
Over 10.5	60% 3/5	40% 2/5
Cards
Cards	1.80	2.80
Opponent cards	2.80	1.60
Match total	4.60	4.40	3.96
Over 3.5	80% 4/5	60% 3/5
Over 4.5	60% 3/5	60% 3/5

	Chelsea	Bournemouth	League
Corners
Corners won	5.50	4.30
Corners conceded	4.80	5.70
Match total	10.30	10.00	9.42
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	2.60	2.50
Opponent cards	2.60	2.10
Match total	5.20	4.60	3.96
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Samuel Barrott 91 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.66league 3.78

Red cards0.05league 0.12

Cards 5+31%league 41%

Fouls20.3league 23.0

Penalties0.24league 0.18

Home wins37%league 37%

Chelsea4 with this referee

Record1-1-2 Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.3 Pens for · against1 · 0

L21 Mar 26A · Everton0–32
D30 Dec 25H · Bournemouth2–21
L26 Dec 24H · Fulham1–21
W21 Sep 24A · West Ham3–02

Bournemouth6 with this referee

Record3-3-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.2 Pens for · against0 · 1

D21 Feb 26A · West Ham0–01
D30 Dec 25A · Chelsea2–21
W26 Oct 25H · Nottingham Forest2–03
D19 Apr 25A · Crystal Palace0–04
W30 Mar 24H · Everton2–11

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.