Chelsea vs Crystal Palace – 17 Aug 2025

Premier League Gameweek 1 Sun, Aug 17 · 14:00 Stamford Bridge, London

Chelsea

0–0Full time

Crystal Palace

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Chelsea were slight favourites.

Chelsea were the stronger side on L90 Strength (83 vs 74). Chelsea usually keep the ball (56% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Chelsea had ? days of rest, Crystal Palace ? and had to travel 0 km.

Away travel0 kmMatches / 14d0 · 0

Chelsea54%

Draw24%

Crystal Palace22%

Expected goals 1.84 – 1.11

Chelsea52%

Draw25%

Crystal Palace23%

Expected goals 1.69 – 1.06

Chelsea54%

Draw24%

Crystal Palace22%

Expected goals 1.81 – 1.09

Chelsea46%

Draw26%

Crystal Palace28%

Expected goals 1.64 – 1.24

Chelsea52%

Draw25%

Crystal Palace23%

Expected goals 1.72 – 1.07

Over 2.5 56% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (London)

No weather data yet

RefereeDarren England

Cards per match 4.3
Penalties per match 0.29
Matches 99

Team strength

Chelsea

Crystal Palace

83 L90 StrengthIn forecast 74

77 Current StrengthIn forecast 62

77 AttackIn forecast 64

74 DefenceIn forecast 54

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Chelsea

Attack—

Defense risk—

Crystal Palace

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Chelsea

Crystal Palace

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

0.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80

1.33 xGVia Att/Def 1.63

1.07 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.38

+0.57 Goals minus xGContext -0.13

90% Scored inContext 80%

40% Clean sheetsContext 20%

11.90 ShotsContext 11.80

5.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.89

45% On target shareContext 37%

7.70 Shots in the boxContext 8.50

63% Box shareContext 71%

16% ConversionContext 13%

2.38 OffsidesContext 2.10

11.00 Shots allowedContext 12.60

3.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.40

3.33 BlocksContext 4.20

2.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50

79% Save rateContext 57%

52% PossessionIn forecast 39%

495 PassesContext 340

430 Accurate passesContext 264

87% Pass accuracyContext 78%

7.09 Team ratingContext 6.87

9.50 FoulsContext 11.40

12.00 Fouls sufferedContext 10.20

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Chelsea

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Crystal Palace

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Chelsea	Crystal Palace
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	—	—
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	0 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	5.3	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Chelsea Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Robert Sánchez(G)

3Marc Cucurella 23T. Chalobah 34J. Acheampong 24R. James

25M. Caicedo 8E. Fernández

11J. Gittens 10C. Palmer 7Pedro Neto

20João Pedro

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Crystal Palace Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1D. Henderson(G)

6A. Guéhi 5M. Lacroix 26Chris Richards

3T. Mitchell 19W. Hughes 20A. Wharton 2D. Muñoz

10E. Eze 7I. Sarr

14J. Mateta

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Chelsea Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Crystal Palace Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Chelsea+0.4 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Crystal Palace-0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Chelsea · Home No home games yet this season.

Crystal Palace · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

8 Chelsea wins2 draws0 Crystal Palace wins

Goals per game2.20 – 0.60 Over 2.560% Both scored60% Clean sheets40% · 0%

4 Jan 2025Crystal Palace1–1Chelsea
1 Sep 2024Chelsea1–1Crystal Palace
12 Feb 2024Crystal Palace1–3Chelsea
27 Dec 2023Chelsea2–1Crystal Palace
15 Jan 2023Chelsea1–0Crystal Palace
1 Oct 2022Crystal Palace1–2Chelsea

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Chelsea	Crystal Palace	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.95
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	56%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	57%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Chelsea	Crystal Palace	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.95
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	56%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	57%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Chelsea	Crystal Palace	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	10.17
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	2.67
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Chelsea	Crystal Palace	League
Corners
Corners won	5.30	4.75
Corners conceded	3.60	3.25
Match total	8.90	8.00	10.17
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	63% 5/8
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	25% 2/8
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	25% 2/8
Cards
Cards	1.70	2.10
Opponent cards	2.10	2.70
Match total	3.80	4.80	2.67
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Darren England 99 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.22league 2.50

Red cards0.11league 0.17

Cards 5+40%league 17%

Fouls22.3league 22.0

Penalties0.29league 0.17

Home wins43%league 50%

Chelsea3 with this referee

Record1-2-0 Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.7 Pens for · against2 · 0

W25 Aug 24A · Wolves6–23
D30 Mar 24H · Burnley2–22
D18 Mar 23H · Everton2–22

Crystal Palace11 with this referee

Record1-5-5 Cards · opp.2.4 · 2.8 Pens for · against1 · 2

D25 May 25A · Liverpool1–10
L16 Apr 25A · Newcastle0–53
D30 Nov 24H · Newcastle1–13
L16 Sep 23A · Aston Villa1–33
L6 May 23A · Tottenham0–15

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.