Chelsea
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Manchester City were the stronger side on L90 Strength (87 vs 80). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Chelsea. Chelsea had 21.9 days of rest, Manchester City 28.8 and had to travel 262 km.
Away travel262 kmRest days21.9 · 28.8Matches / 14d0 · 0
Chelsea38%
Draw24%
Manchester City38%
Chelsea36%
Draw27%
Manchester City37%
Chelsea39%
Draw24%
Manchester City37%
Chelsea30%
Draw23%
Manchester City47%
Chelsea37%
Draw25%
Manchester City37%
Over 2.5 66%
Both score 68%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (London)
No weather data yet
RefereeChris Kavanagh
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 159
Team strength
Chelsea
Manchester City
80
L90 StrengthIn forecast
87
77
Current StrengthIn forecast
91
77
AttackIn forecast
92
74
DefenceIn forecast
82
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisManchester City
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ChelseaManchester City
1.71
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.23
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.93
1.91
xGVia Att/Def
1.84
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.10
-0.20
Goals minus xGContext
+0.16
87%
Scored inContext
87%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
13.74
ShotsContext
14.77
4.68
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.23
34%
On target shareContext
35%
9.47
Shots in the boxContext
10.87
68%
Box shareContext
73%
12%
ConversionContext
14%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.74
10.77
Shots allowedContext
9.77
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.43
2.93
BlocksContext
3.00
3.07
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.59
71%
Save rateContext
74%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
548
PassesContext
585
479
Accurate passesContext
518
87%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
7.01
Team ratingContext
7.10
10.97
FoulsContext
9.93
11.68
Fouls sufferedContext
11.30
2.39
Yellow cardsContext
1.87
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
2.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
2.08
xGVia Att/Def
1.78
1.07
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.23
-0.48
Goals minus xGContext
-0.18
70%
Scored inContext
90%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
14.50
ShotsContext
15.90
4.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.70
34%
On target shareContext
36%
9.80
Shots in the boxContext
11.10
69%
Box shareContext
69%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
1.86
OffsidesContext
2.00
9.30
Shots allowedContext
10.70
5.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
2.11
BlocksContext
3.25
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.56
59%
Save rateContext
74%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
600
PassesContext
587
538
Accurate passesContext
526
90%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.82
Team ratingContext
7.07
9.70
FoulsContext
9.60
10.70
Fouls sufferedContext
10.90
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Chelsea
Rest21.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Manchester City
Rest28.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel262 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Chelsea |
Manchester City |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 21.9Premier League 2025-2026, 21 Mar | 28.8Premier League 2025-2026, 14 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 262 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 1 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Chelsea
Confirmed XI
1Robert Sánchez(G)
3Marc Cucurella
21J. Hato
29W. Fofana
27M. Gusto
25M. Caicedo
17Andrey Santos
7Pedro Neto
10C. Palmer
41Estêvão
20João Pedro
Manchester City
Confirmed XI
25G. Donnarumma(G)
33N. O'Reilly
15A. Guéhi
45A. Khusanov
27M. Nunes
16Rodri
20Bernardo Silva
11J. Doku
10M. Cherki
42A. Semenyo
9E. Haaland
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Chelsea
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.08 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Manchester City
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Chelsea-0.8 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Manchester City+1.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Chelsea · Home
1.53points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-5-4
- Scored
- 1.53
- Conceded
- 1.13
Manchester City · Away
1.67points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 7-4-4
- Scored
- 1.60
- Conceded
- 1.13
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Chelsea | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|
| Everton | L 0–3 AW 2–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Newcastle | L 0–1 HD 2–2 A | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Aston Villa | W 4–1 AL 1–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| Arsenal | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Burnley | D 1–1 HW 2–0 A | W 5–1 H |
| Leeds | D 2–2 HL 1–3 A | W 1–0 AW 3–2 H |
| Wolves | W 3–1 AW 3–0 H | W 2–0 HW 4–0 A |
| West Ham | W 3–2 HW 5–1 A | D 1–1 AW 3–0 H |
| Crystal Palace | W 3–1 AD 0–0 H | W 3–0 A |
| Brentford | W 2–0 HD 2–2 A | W 1–0 A |
| Fulham | L 1–2 AW 2–0 H | W 3–0 HW 5–4 A |
| Bournemouth | D 2–2 HD 0–0 A | W 3–1 H |
| Tottenham | W 1–0 A | D 2–2 AL 0–2 H |
| Sunderland | L 1–2 H | D 0–0 AW 3–0 H |
| Nottingham Forest | W 3–0 A | D 2–2 HW 2–1 A |
| Liverpool | W 2–1 H | W 2–1 AW 3–0 H |
| Brighton | L 1–3 H | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Manchester United | L 1–2 A | L 0–2 AW 3–0 H |
| Points | 47 of 90 · 1.57 per game | 60 of 87 · 2.07 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings
0 Chelsea wins3 draws7 Manchester City wins
Goals per game0.70 – 1.60
Over 2.520%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets0% · 60%
- 4 Jan 2026Manchester City1–1Chelsea
- 25 Jan 2025Manchester City3–1Chelsea
- 18 Aug 2024Chelsea0–2Manchester City
- 20 Apr 2024Manchester City1–0Chelsea
- 17 Feb 2024Manchester City1–1Chelsea
- 12 Nov 2023Chelsea4–4Manchester City
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Chelsea | Manchester City | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.71 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.23 | 0.93 | |
| Match goals | 2.94 | 2.93 | 3.42 |
| Over 1.5 | 87% | 87% | |
| Over 2.5 | 65% | 60% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | 35% | 23% | |
| Both teams scored | 65% | 50% | 68% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 13% | |
| Games | 31 | 30 |
| Chelsea | Manchester City | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.90 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 2.60 | 3.42 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 50% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% | 68% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Chelsea | Manchester City | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.43 | 5.66 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.10 | 3.83 | |
| Match total | 10.53 | 9.49 | 10.03 |
| Over 8.5 | 83% 25/30 | 62% 18/29 | |
| Over 9.5 | 73% 22/30 | 45% 13/29 | |
| Over 10.5 | 53% 16/30 | 31% 9/29 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.61 | 1.87 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.26 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.87 | 3.97 | 3.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 68% 21/31 | 63% 19/30 | |
| Over 4.5 | 61% 19/31 | 37% 11/30 | |
| Chelsea | Manchester City | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.30 | 6.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.80 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 10.10 | 9.90 | 10.03 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.30 | 3.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Chris Kavanagh 159 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.83league 3.76
Red cards0.13league 0.12
Cards 5+37%league 39%
Fouls21.8league 21.5
Penalties0.23league 0.22
Home wins40%league 42%
Chelsea14 with this referee
Record8-3-3
Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.5
Pens for · against4 · 1
Reds1
- W10 Jan 26A · Charlton5–11
- W18 Oct 25A · Nottingham Forest3–04
- W16 May 25H · Manchester United1–01
- W26 Apr 25H · Everton1–00
- L16 Mar 25A · Arsenal0–13
Manchester City12 with this referee
Record8-2-2
Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.2
Pens for · against3 · 1
- W9 Nov 25H · Liverpool3–02
- L8 Mar 25A · Nottingham Forest0–12
- L1 Dec 24A · Liverpool0–23
- W20 Oct 24A · Wolves2–11
- W14 May 24A · Tottenham2–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Chelsea31 games · scored 53 · conceded 38
6
7
0-15
6
5
16-30
12
6
31-45
13
3
46-60
8
7
61-75
8
10
76-90
Manchester City30 games · scored 60 · conceded 28
8
0-15
8
3
16-30
19
5
31-45
6
6
46-60
11
8
61-75
8
6
76-90
Chelsea10 games · scored 16 · conceded 21
2
5
0-15
2
2
16-30
5
3
31-45
4
1
46-60
2
6
61-75
1
4
76-90
Manchester City10 games · scored 16 · conceded 12
3
0-15
4
4
16-30
6
2
31-45
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
