Chelsea
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Chelsea were clear favourites.
Chelsea were the stronger side on L90 Strength (83 vs 44). Absences weigh more on Chelsea. Chelsea had 7.1 days of rest, Wolves 7.2 and had to travel 182 km.
Away travel182 kmRest days7.1 · 7.2Matches / 14d1 · 2
Chelsea71%
Draw18%
Wolves11%
Chelsea70%
Draw19%
Wolves11%
Chelsea72%
Draw17%
Wolves11%
Chelsea64%
Draw20%
Wolves15%
Chelsea69%
Draw19%
Wolves12%
Over 2.5 64%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (London)
No weather data yet
RefereeAndrew Kitchen
- Cards per match 3.2
- Penalties per match 0.11
- Matches 61
Team strength
Chelsea
Wolves
83
L90 StrengthIn forecast
44
77
Current StrengthIn forecast
44
77
AttackIn forecast
41
74
DefenceIn forecast
46
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisWolves
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ChelseaWolves
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.20
1.74
xGVia Att/Def
0.95
1.37
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.30
+0.06
Goals minus xGContext
-0.25
90%
Scored inContext
50%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
13.80
ShotsContext
10.20
5.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
39%
On target shareContext
34%
9.10
Shots in the boxContext
6.60
67%
Box shareContext
65%
13%
ConversionContext
7%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.17
10.10
Shots allowedContext
12.60
3.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
2.80
BlocksContext
4.33
2.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
68%
Save rateContext
60%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
525
PassesContext
410
455
Accurate passesContext
330
87%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
7.04
Team ratingContext
6.68
11.50
FoulsContext
13.40
12.60
Fouls sufferedContext
9.20
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.10
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.20
1.55
xGVia Att/Def
0.95
1.55
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.30
+0.25
Goals minus xGContext
-0.25
100%
Scored inContext
50%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
13.20
ShotsContext
10.20
5.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
39%
On target shareContext
34%
8.30
Shots in the boxContext
6.60
63%
Box shareContext
65%
14%
ConversionContext
7%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.17
9.60
Shots allowedContext
12.60
2.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
2.80
BlocksContext
4.33
1.88
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
63%
Save rateContext
60%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
503
PassesContext
410
436
Accurate passesContext
330
87%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.68
12.80
FoulsContext
13.40
11.70
Fouls sufferedContext
9.20
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Chelsea
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Wolves
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel182 km363 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Chelsea |
Wolves |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Premier League 2025-2026, 1 Nov | 7.2Premier League 2025-2026, 1 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 182 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 363 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13.7 | 13.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Chelsea
Confirmed XI
1Robert Sánchez(G)
3Marc Cucurella
23T. Chalobah
29W. Fofana
27M. Gusto
8E. Fernández
25M. Caicedo
49A. Garnacho
20João Pedro
7Pedro Neto
9L. Delap
Wolves
Confirmed XI
31S. Johnstone(G)
3Hugo Bueno
24Toti Gomes
37L. Krejčí
4S. Bueno
38J. Tchatchoua
8João Gomes
7André
27J. Bellegarde
11H. Hwang
9J. Strand Larsen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Chelsea
Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Wolves
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Chelsea-1.0 pp
- Draw+0.4 pp
- Wolves+0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Chelsea · Home
1.40points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-2
- Scored
- 1.20
- Conceded
- 1.20
Wolves · Away
0.20points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-4
- Scored
- 0.20
- Conceded
- 1.60
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Chelsea | Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Tottenham | W 1–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| Sunderland | L 1–2 H | L 0–2 A |
| Brighton | L 1–3 H | D 1–1 H |
| Fulham | W 2–0 H | L 0–3 A |
| Points | 6 of 12 · 1.50 per game | 2 of 12 · 0.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
3 Chelsea wins3 draws4 Wolves wins
Goals per game1.80 – 1.40
Over 2.570%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets30% · 30%
- 20 Jan 2025Chelsea3–1Wolves
- 25 Aug 2024Wolves2–6Chelsea
- 4 Feb 2024Chelsea2–4Wolves
- 24 Dec 2023Wolves2–1Chelsea
- 8 Apr 2023Wolves1–0Chelsea
- 8 Oct 2022Chelsea3–0Wolves
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Chelsea | Wolves | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 0.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 2.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.90 | 3.31 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 50% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Chelsea | Wolves | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 0.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 2.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.90 | 3.31 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 50% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Chelsea | Wolves | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.10 | 3.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.40 | 6.33 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 9.77 | 9.81 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 3.50 | 3.69 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Chelsea | Wolves | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.89 | 3.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.33 | 6.33 | |
| Match total | 9.22 | 9.77 | 9.81 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.90 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 5.70 | 3.50 | 3.69 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Andrew Kitchen 61 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.13league 3.59
Red cards0.07league 0.11
Cards 5+21%league 38%
Fouls23.7league 21.9
Penalties0.11league 0.17
Home wins46%league 51%
ChelseaNo previous matches with this referee.
WolvesNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Chelsea10 games · scored 18 · conceded 11
3
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
5
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
5
76-90
Wolves10 games · scored 7 · conceded 22
1
4
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
6
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
61-75
1
5
76-90
Chelsea10 games · scored 18 · conceded 14
2
1
0-15
6
4
16-30
3
3
31-45
4
46-60
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
Wolves10 games · scored 7 · conceded 22
1
4
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
6
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
61-75
1
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
