Club Brugge KV
Attack—
Defense risk—
Club Brugge KV
2nd · 35 pts · 18 played
LWLLW
First leg1–1
2–1Full time
Gent
10th · 23 pts · 18 played
DDLDL
Our take
Club Brugge KV were clear favourites.
Club Brugge KV were the stronger side on L90 Strength (62 vs 34). Club Brugge KV had 6.9 days of rest, Gent 7 and had to travel 39 km.
Away travel39 kmRest days6.9 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Club Brugge KV62%
Draw22%
Gent16%
Club Brugge KV61%
Draw22%
Gent16%
Club Brugge KV62%
Draw22%
Gent16%
Club Brugge KV54%
Draw24%
Gent21%
Club Brugge KV61%
Draw22%
Gent16%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brugge)
No weather data yet
RefereeJasper Vergoote
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.51
- Matches 39
Team strength
Club Brugge KVGent
62
L90 StrengthIn forecast
34
75
Current StrengthIn forecast
46
86
AttackIn forecast
46
58
DefenceIn forecast
61
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGent
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Club Brugge KVGent
1.61
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.39
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.46
xGVia Att/Def
1.24
1.05
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.46
+0.15
Goals minus xGContext
+0.15
83%
Scored inContext
78%
39%
Clean sheetsContext
22%
16.39
ShotsContext
12.67
5.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.33
32%
On target shareContext
34%
11.33
Shots in the boxContext
7.78
68%
Box shareContext
61%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
1.92
OffsidesContext
2.23
11.56
Shots allowedContext
13.61
3.78
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.22
2.61
BlocksContext
3.87
3.31
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.12
80%
Save rateContext
78%
63%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
557
PassesContext
466
486
Accurate passesContext
386
87%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.05
Team ratingContext
6.84
9.06
FoulsContext
10.28
11.56
Fouls sufferedContext
10.33
1.28
Yellow cardsContext
1.61
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.17
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.32
xGVia Att/Def
1.20
1.58
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.53
+0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.20
60%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
15.40
ShotsContext
12.10
5.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.20
34%
On target shareContext
35%
11.11
Shots in the boxContext
6.90
69%
Box shareContext
55%
9%
ConversionContext
12%
1.60
OffsidesContext
2.00
13.50
Shots allowedContext
14.20
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.20
2.40
BlocksContext
3.44
3.88
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.11
69%
Save rateContext
77%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
510
PassesContext
458
442
Accurate passesContext
376
87%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.81
9.50
FoulsContext
10.00
9.50
Fouls sufferedContext
9.60
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Club Brugge KV
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km139 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Gent
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel39 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Club Brugge KV |
Gent |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 14 Dec | 7Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 14 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 39 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 139 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5 | 6.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Club Brugge KV
Confirmed XI
16T. van den Heuvel(G)
65J. Seys
44B. Mechele
4J. Ordoñez
64K. Sabbe
25A. Stanković
67M. Diakhon
20H. Vanaken
10H. Vetlesen
9Carlos Forbs
17R. Vermant
Gent
Confirmed XI
33D. Roef(G)
44S. Van der Heyden
3M. Paskotši
57Matties Volckaert
18M. Samoise
27T. De Vlieger
15A. Ito
20Tiago Araújo
6O. Gandelman
21M. Dean
45B. Goore
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Club Brugge KV
Absences are shown before kick-off
Gent
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Club Brugge KV+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Gent+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Club Brugge KV · Home
2.38points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-1-1
- Scored
- 1.88
- Conceded
- 1.00
Gent · Away
1.00points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-4
- Scored
- 1.11
- Conceded
- 1.89
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Club Brugge KV | Gent |
|---|---|---|
| Dender | W 5–1 AW 2–1 H | W 3–0 H |
| St. Truiden | L 2–3 AW 2–0 H | L 1–2 HL 1–3 A |
| Antwerp | L 0–1 HW 1–0 A | L 0–2 HW 2–1 A |
| Charleroi | W 1–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Anderlecht | L 0–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| OH Leuven | W 1–0 A | L 0–4 A |
| Union St. Gilloise | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 AL 2–3 H |
| Standard Liege | W 2–1 A | W 4–0 H |
| KVC Westerlo | D 5–5 H | D 0–0 A |
| RAAL La Louvière | L 0–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Zulte Waregem | W 1–0 A | L 1–4 A |
| Cercle Brugge | W 2–0 H | W 4–2 A |
| KV Mechelen | L 1–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Genk | W 2–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 34 of 51 · 2.00 per game | 22 of 51 · 1.29 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 Club Brugge KV wins1 draws1 Gent wins
Goals per game1.33 – 1.00
Over 2.533%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 0%
- 31 Aug 2025Gent1–1Club Brugge KV
- 17 Dec 2023Club Brugge KV2–0Gent
- 3 Sep 2023Gent2–1Club Brugge KV
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Club Brugge KV | Gent | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.61 | 1.39 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.61 | 2.89 | 2.94 |
| Over 1.5 | 56% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 39% | 56% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 61% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 39% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 22% | |
| Games | 18 | 18 |
| Club Brugge KV | Gent | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 3.10 | 2.94 |
| Over 1.5 | 40% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Club Brugge KV | Gent | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.63 | 4.69 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.75 | 4.88 | |
| Match total | 11.38 | 9.57 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 81% 13/16 | 56% 9/16 | |
| Over 9.5 | 81% 13/16 | 50% 8/16 | |
| Over 10.5 | 69% 11/16 | 38% 6/16 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.33 | 1.78 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.33 | 2.06 | |
| Match total | 3.66 | 3.84 | 3.99 |
| Over 3.5 | 44% 8/18 | 50% 9/18 | |
| Over 4.5 | 28% 5/18 | 44% 8/18 | |
| Club Brugge KV | Gent | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.38 | 4.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.88 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 10.26 | 9.25 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 5/8 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 4/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 3.90 | 3.99 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jasper Vergoote 39 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.97league 3.76
Red cards0.28league 0.18
Cards 5+36%league 41%
Fouls23.5league 22.8
Penalties0.51league 0.29
Home wins54%league 41%
Club Brugge KV8 with this referee
Record4-1-3
Cards · opp.2.5 · 3.1
Pens for · against2 · 0
Reds3
- W27 Sep 25A · Standard Liege2–11
- W27 Jul 25H · Genk2–12
- W3 Mar 24A · Genk3–02
- L4 Feb 24A · Antwerp1–26
- D26 Dec 23H · Union St. Gilloise1–13
Gent6 with this referee
Record2-3-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.7
Pens for · against1 · 2
Reds1
- L9 Aug 25H · Union St. Gilloise2–31
- D25 Feb 24H · Antwerp2–21
- W9 Dec 23H · RWDM4–00
- D12 Nov 23H · Anderlecht1–11
- D8 Oct 23H · Genk1–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Club Brugge KV18 games · scored 29 · conceded 18
2
5
0-15
3
3
16-30
3
2
31-45
6
1
46-60
7
2
61-75
8
5
76-90
Gent18 games · scored 25 · conceded 27
4
1
0-15
3
7
16-30
3
5
31-45
3
3
46-60
3
4
61-75
9
7
76-90
Club Brugge KV10 games · scored 14 · conceded 16
2
2
0-15
4
4
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
4
2
61-75
1
4
76-90
Gent10 games · scored 14 · conceded 17
3
1
0-15
3
5
16-30
2
4
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
