Como
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Como were slight favourites.
AS Roma were the stronger side on L90 Strength (69 vs 61). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Como. Como had 8.1 days of rest, AS Roma 3 and had to travel 515 km.
Away travel515 kmRest days8.1 · 3Matches / 14d1 · 3
Como49%
Draw28%
AS Roma24%
Como39%
Draw27%
AS Roma34%
Como48%
Draw28%
AS Roma24%
Como42%
Draw29%
AS Roma29%
Como49%
Draw27%
AS Roma24%
Over 2.5 44%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Como)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyDavide Massa
- Cards per match 4.8
- Penalties per match 0.18
- Matches 108
Team strength
Como
AS Roma
61
L90 StrengthIn forecast
69
65
Current StrengthIn forecast
71
72
AttackIn forecast
72
67
DefenceIn forecast
75
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAS Roma
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ComoAS Roma
1.64
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.36
0.75
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.75
1.50
xGVia Att/Def
1.35
0.86
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.02
+0.14
Goals minus xGContext
+0.01
75%
Scored inContext
75%
46%
Clean sheetsContext
43%
13.79
ShotsContext
13.32
4.86
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.57
35%
On target shareContext
34%
8.78
Shots in the boxContext
9.56
63%
Box shareContext
70%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
1.50
OffsidesContext
2.09
9.07
Shots allowedContext
9.43
3.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.70
2.91
BlocksContext
2.59
2.62
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.08
74%
Save rateContext
81%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
522
PassesContext
482
456
Accurate passesContext
403
87%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.91
13.43
FoulsContext
14.14
11.86
Fouls sufferedContext
13.93
2.14
Yellow cardsContext
1.93
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.04
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.83
xGVia Att/Def
1.39
0.74
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.99
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.21
90%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
14.10
ShotsContext
12.00
4.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
35%
On target shareContext
32%
9.67
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
67%
Box shareContext
77%
14%
ConversionContext
13%
1.57
OffsidesContext
2.33
7.10
Shots allowedContext
8.80
2.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.78
2.13
BlocksContext
2.25
1.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.88
68%
Save rateContext
70%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
565
PassesContext
441
500
Accurate passesContext
366
89%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.91
11.80
FoulsContext
14.30
10.40
Fouls sufferedContext
12.30
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Como
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,463 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
AS Roma
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel515 km1,413 km in 14d
Schedule load29%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Como |
AS Roma |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 29 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.1Serie A 2025-2026, 7 Mar | 3UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout phase, 12 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 515 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,463 km | 1,413 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 4 | 2 / 3 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.8 | 4.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Como
Confirmed XI
1J. Butez(G)
2M. Kempf
34Diego Carlos
14Jacobo Ramón
3Álex Valle
8Sergi Roberto
33L. da Cunha
28I. Smolčić
20M. Baturina
6M. Caqueret
10N. Paz
AS Roma
Confirmed XI
99M. Svilar(G)
22Hermoso
23G. Mancini
87D. Ghilardi
43Wesley
17K. Koné
4B. Cristante
19M. Çelik
92S. El Shaarawy
7L. Pellegrini
14D. Malen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Como
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
AS Roma
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Como+0.9 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- AS Roma-0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Como · Home
1.86points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-5-2
- Scored
- 1.71
- Conceded
- 0.71
AS Roma · Away
1.57points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 7-1-6
- Scored
- 1.14
- Conceded
- 0.86
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Como | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|
| Cagliari | W 2–1 AD 0–0 H | W 2–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Lecce | W 3–1 HW 3–0 A | W 2–0 A |
| Juventus | W 2–0 AW 2–0 H | D 3–3 HL 1–2 A |
| AC Milan | D 1–1 AL 1–3 H | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Fiorentina | L 1–2 HW 2–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| Atalanta | D 0–0 HD 1–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Torino | W 6–0 HW 5–1 A | W 2–0 AL 0–1 H |
| Lazio | W 3–0 AW 2–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Bologna | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Pisa | W 3–0 A | W 1–0 A |
| Udinese | W 1–0 H | L 0–1 AW 2–0 H |
| Inter | L 0–4 A | L 0–1 H |
| Sassuolo | W 2–0 H | W 2–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Napoli | D 0–0 A | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Verona | W 3–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| Parma | D 0–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| Cremonese | D 1–1 H | W 3–0 HW 3–1 A |
| Genoa | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 AW 3–1 H |
| Points | 51 of 81 · 1.89 per game | 48 of 81 · 1.78 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 Como wins0 draws2 AS Roma wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.00
Over 2.533%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets33% · 33%
- 15 Dec 2025AS Roma1–0Como
- 2 Mar 2025AS Roma2–1Como
- 15 Dec 2024Como2–0AS Roma
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Como | AS Roma | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.64 | 1.36 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.75 | 0.75 | |
| Match goals | 2.39 | 2.11 | 2.42 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 57% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 32% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 21% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 32% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 46% | 43% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 25% | |
| Games | 28 | 28 |
| Como | AS Roma | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.70 | 2.42 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Como | AS Roma | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.84 | 4.96 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.12 | 2.96 | |
| Match total | 6.96 | 7.92 | 8.74 |
| Over 8.5 | 24% 6/25 | 39% 11/28 | |
| Over 9.5 | 16% 4/25 | 25% 7/28 | |
| Over 10.5 | 12% 3/25 | 18% 5/28 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.25 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.18 | 2.29 | |
| Match total | 4.43 | 4.29 | 3.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 68% 19/28 | 64% 18/28 | |
| Over 4.5 | 46% 13/28 | 43% 12/28 | |
| Como | AS Roma | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 4.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.50 | 3.20 | |
| Match total | 6.50 | 7.90 | 8.74 |
| Over 8.5 | 10% 1/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 10% 1/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 0% 0/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 4.00 | 3.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Davide Massa Italy · 108 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.47league 3.75
Red cards0.29league 0.19
Cards 5+50%league 35%
Fouls25.0league 25.2
Penalties0.18league 0.30
Home wins35%league 39%
Como1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L23 May 25H · Inter0–22
AS Roma13 with this referee
Record2-4-7
Cards · opp.3.9 · 3.1
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds3
- L30 Nov 25H · Napoli0–14
- L18 Oct 25H · Inter0–14
- L24 Nov 24A · Napoli0–13
- L20 Oct 24H · Inter0–12
- L26 May 24A · Empoli1–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Como27 games · scored 44 · conceded 20
9
3
0-15
6
2
16-30
5
2
31-45
5
6
46-60
9
3
61-75
10
4
76-90
AS Roma28 games · scored 38 · conceded 21
4
3
0-15
7
16-30
4
4
31-45
5
4
46-60
11
2
61-75
7
8
76-90
Como10 games · scored 20 · conceded 9
5
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
2
4
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
1
76-90
AS Roma10 games · scored 16 · conceded 11
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
5
46-60
5
1
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
