Como
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Como were slight favourites.
Como were the stronger side on L90 Strength (48 vs 25). Como usually keep the ball (59% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Como had 6.9 days of rest, Cagliari 4.8 and had to travel 731 km.
Away travel731 kmRest days6.9 · 4.8Matches / 14d2 · 3
Como58%
Draw24%
Cagliari18%
Como59%
Draw23%
Cagliari18%
Como58%
Draw24%
Cagliari18%
Como51%
Draw26%
Cagliari23%
Como59%
Draw23%
Cagliari18%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Como)
No weather data yet
RefereeIvano Pezzuto
- Cards per match 4.8
- Penalties per match 0.15
- Matches 13
Team strength
Como
Cagliari
48
L90 StrengthIn forecast
25
65
Current StrengthIn forecast
33
72
AttackIn forecast
31
67
DefenceIn forecast
31
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCagliari
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ComoCagliari
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
0.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.19
xGVia Att/Def
0.89
0.89
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.42
+0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.01
70%
Scored inContext
60%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
13.50
ShotsContext
9.90
4.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.56
32%
On target shareContext
32%
7.60
Shots in the boxContext
6.10
56%
Box shareContext
58%
9%
ConversionContext
9%
1.60
OffsidesContext
2.25
11.00
Shots allowedContext
13.30
3.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
3.67
BlocksContext
4.38
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.67
78%
Save rateContext
75%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
481
PassesContext
372
414
Accurate passesContext
301
86%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.73
15.00
FoulsContext
14.20
13.80
Fouls sufferedContext
13.90
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
0.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.19
xGVia Att/Def
0.89
0.89
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.42
+0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.01
70%
Scored inContext
60%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
13.50
ShotsContext
9.90
4.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.56
32%
On target shareContext
32%
7.60
Shots in the boxContext
6.10
56%
Box shareContext
58%
9%
ConversionContext
9%
1.60
OffsidesContext
2.25
11.00
Shots allowedContext
13.30
3.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
3.67
BlocksContext
4.38
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.67
78%
Save rateContext
75%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
481
PassesContext
372
414
Accurate passesContext
301
86%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.73
15.00
FoulsContext
14.20
13.80
Fouls sufferedContext
13.90
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Como
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,384 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Cagliari
Rest4.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel731 km2,238 km in 14d
Schedule load26%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Como |
Cagliari |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 26 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Serie A 2025-2026, 1 Nov | 4.8Serie A 2025-2026, 3 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 731 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,384 km | 2,238 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 3 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 16.1 | 14 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Como
Confirmed XI
1J. Butez(G)
3Álex Valle
34Diego Carlos
14Jacobo Ramón
28I. Smolčić
6M. Caqueret
23M. Perrone
38Assane Diao
10N. Paz
42J. Addai
7Álvaro Morata
Cagliari
Confirmed XI
1E. Caprile(G)
33A. Obert
6S. Luperto
26Y. Mina
28G. Zappa
17M. Felici
10G. Gaetano
16M. Prati
90M. Folorunsho
2M. Palestra
94S. Esposito
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Como
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Cagliari
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Como+0.0 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Cagliari+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Como · Home
2.20points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-0
- Scored
- 1.80
- Conceded
- 0.60
Cagliari · Away
1.00points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.40
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 6 this season
| Opponent | Como | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|
| Napoli | D 0–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| Verona | W 3–1 H | D 2–2 A |
| Parma | D 0–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| Fiorentina | W 2–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Bologna | L 0–1 A | L 0–2 H |
| Lazio | W 2–0 H | L 0–2 A |
| Points | 11 of 18 · 1.83 per game | 5 of 18 · 0.83 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Como wins1 draws0 Cagliari wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 10 May 2025Como3–1Cagliari
- 26 Aug 2024Cagliari1–1Como
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Como | Cagliari | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.60 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 1.80 | 2.30 | 2.68 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 30% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Como | Cagliari | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.60 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 1.80 | 2.30 | 2.68 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 30% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Como | Cagliari | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.38 | 3.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.63 | 5.11 | |
| Match total | 7.01 | 8.67 | 8.98 |
| Over 8.5 | 25% 2/8 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 13% 1/8 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 13% 1/8 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.90 | 4.40 | 4.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Como | Cagliari | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.38 | 3.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.63 | 5.11 | |
| Match total | 7.01 | 8.67 | 8.98 |
| Over 8.5 | 25% 2/8 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 13% 1/8 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 13% 1/8 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.90 | 4.40 | 4.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ivano Pezzuto 13 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.62league 3.93
Red cards0.15league 0.13
Cards 5+46%league 40%
Fouls27.8league 25.9
Penalties0.15league 0.29
Home wins31%league 38%
ComoNo previous matches with this referee.
Cagliari1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L27 Oct 21H · AS Roma1–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Como9 games · scored 10 · conceded 5
3
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
Cagliari10 games · scored 9 · conceded 14
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
4
4
76-90
Como9 games · scored 10 · conceded 5
3
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
Cagliari10 games · scored 9 · conceded 14
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
