Como
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Juventus were slight favourites.
Juventus were the stronger side on L90 Strength (70 vs 43). Como had 14.7 days of rest, Juventus 13.7 and had to travel 136 km.
Away travel136 kmRest days14.7 · 13.7Matches / 14d0 · 1
Como28%
Draw27%
Juventus44%
Como28%
Draw27%
Juventus45%
Como28%
Draw27%
Juventus44%
Como22%
Draw26%
Juventus52%
Como28%
Draw26%
Juventus45%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Como)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyGiovanni Ayroldi
- Cards per match 5.8
- Penalties per match 0.16
- Matches 45
Team strength
Como
Juventus
43
L90 StrengthIn forecast
70
65
Current StrengthIn forecast
67
72
AttackIn forecast
57
67
DefenceIn forecast
76
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisJuventus
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ComoJuventus
1.17
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
0.83
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.83
1.32
xGVia Att/Def
1.14
0.95
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.97
-0.15
Goals minus xGContext
+0.36
83%
Scored inContext
83%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
14.83
ShotsContext
15.67
4.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.33
32%
On target shareContext
34%
8.83
Shots in the boxContext
8.67
60%
Box shareContext
56%
8%
ConversionContext
10%
1.50
OffsidesContext
1.25
10.17
Shots allowedContext
11.50
2.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.67
4.60
BlocksContext
2.67
1.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.67
53%
Save rateContext
63%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
471
PassesContext
487
402
Accurate passesContext
422
86%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.94
16.33
FoulsContext
11.50
13.83
Fouls sufferedContext
11.33
2.67
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.33
Red cardsContext
0.17
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.29
xGVia Att/Def
1.37
1.07
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.03
-0.09
Goals minus xGContext
+0.63
80%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
15.20
ShotsContext
16.50
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.50
30%
On target shareContext
33%
9.20
Shots in the boxContext
10.00
61%
Box shareContext
61%
8%
ConversionContext
12%
1.60
OffsidesContext
1.75
10.60
Shots allowedContext
11.40
3.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.30
4.00
BlocksContext
2.90
1.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.90
57%
Save rateContext
58%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
485
PassesContext
477
419
Accurate passesContext
414
86%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.95
14.10
FoulsContext
12.50
13.30
Fouls sufferedContext
10.60
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.30
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Como
Rest14.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Juventus
Rest13.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel136 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Como |
Juventus |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14.7Serie A 2025-2026, 4 Oct | 13.7Serie A 2025-2026, 5 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 136 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 7.4 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Como
Confirmed XI
1J. Butez(G)
18Alberto Moreno
2M. Kempf
34Diego Carlos
28I. Smolčić
23M. Perrone
33L. da Cunha
6M. Caqueret
10N. Paz
31M. Vojvoda
7Álvaro Morata
Juventus
Confirmed XI
16M. Di Gregorio(G)
27A. Cambiaso
6L. Kelly
24D. Rugani
15P. Kalulu
19K. Thuram
5M. Locatelli
8T. Koopmeiners
10K. Yıldız
30J. David
7Francisco Conceição
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Como
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Juventus
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Como+0.0 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Juventus+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Como · Home
1.67points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-0
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 0.67
Juventus · Away
2.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Como | Juventus |
|---|---|---|
| Atalanta | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Genoa | D 1–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Points | 2 of 6 · 1.00 per game | 4 of 6 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Como wins0 draws2 Juventus wins
Goals per game0.50 – 2.50
Over 2.5100%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 7 Feb 2025Como1–2Juventus
- 19 Aug 2024Juventus3–0Como
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Como | Juventus | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.17 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.83 | 0.83 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.33 | 2.61 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 17% | 17% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 50% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Como | Juventus | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.17 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.83 | 0.83 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.33 | 2.61 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 17% | 17% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 50% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Como | Juventus | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.25 | 6.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 5.20 | |
| Match total | 8.75 | 11.40 | 9.33 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 2/4 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 1/4 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 1/4 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 2.17 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.67 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 5.67 | 4.17 | 3.81 |
| Over 3.5 | 83% 5/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 4/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Como | Juventus | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.13 | 6.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.13 | 4.56 | |
| Match total | 8.26 | 10.78 | 9.33 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 13% 1/8 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 3.70 | 3.81 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Giovanni Ayroldi Italy · 45 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.53league 3.69
Red cards0.29league 0.13
Cards 5+78%league 36%
Fouls27.9league 26.4
Penalties0.16league 0.23
Home wins38%league 38%
Como2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D8 Mar 25H · Venezia1–12
- L25 Oct 24A · Torino0–13
Juventus9 with this referee
Record5-2-2
Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 1
- W18 May 25H · Udinese2–00
- D20 May 24A · Bologna3–35
- W3 Sep 23A · Empoli2–03
- L22 May 23A · Empoli1–42
- W4 Jan 23A · Cremonese1–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Como5 games · scored 5 · conceded 4
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
76-90
Juventus6 games · scored 9 · conceded 5
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
1
76-90
Como9 games · scored 10 · conceded 8
1
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
Juventus10 games · scored 20 · conceded 13
1
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
5
3
61-75
7
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
