Como
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lazio were slight favourites.
Lazio were the stronger side on L90 Strength (62 vs 40). Absences weigh more on Lazio. Como had ? days of rest, Lazio ? and had to travel 515 km.
Away travel515 kmMatches / 14d0 · 0
Como32%
Draw28%
Lazio40%
Como31%
Draw27%
Lazio42%
Como31%
Draw28%
Lazio41%
Como26%
Draw27%
Lazio48%
Como32%
Draw27%
Lazio41%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Como)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyGianluca Manganiello
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 47
Team strength
Como
Lazio
40
L90 StrengthIn forecast
62
65
Current StrengthIn forecast
62
72
AttackIn forecast
53
67
DefenceIn forecast
63
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLazio
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ComoLazio
—
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
—
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
—
Scored inContext
—
—
Clean sheetsContext
—
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
—
—
Pass accuracyContext
—
—
Team ratingContext
—
—
FoulsContext
—
—
Fouls sufferedContext
—
—
Yellow cardsContext
—
—
Red cardsContext
—
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.36
xGVia Att/Def
1.43
1.15
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.91
+0.14
Goals minus xGContext
-0.13
90%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
15.00
ShotsContext
14.80
5.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.10
34%
On target shareContext
35%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
10.30
60%
Box shareContext
66%
10%
ConversionContext
9%
1.63
OffsidesContext
3.13
10.20
Shots allowedContext
9.60
3.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.90
3.00
BlocksContext
2.89
2.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
71%
Save rateContext
72%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
495
PassesContext
473
430
Accurate passesContext
405
87%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
7.06
Team ratingContext
7.08
11.60
FoulsContext
10.80
15.90
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.80
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.30
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Como
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Lazio
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel515 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Como |
Lazio |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | — | — |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 515 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 0 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Como
Confirmed XI
1J. Butez(G)
3Álex Valle
2M. Kempf
14Jacobo Ramón
77I. Van der Brempt
33L. da Cunha
23M. Perrone
17Jesús Rodríguez
10N. Paz
31M. Vojvoda
11A. Douvikas
Lazio
Confirmed XI
94I. Provedel(G)
17Nuno Tavares
25Oliver Provstgaard
34Mario Gila
29M. Lazzari
7O. Dele-Bashiru
32D. Cataldi
8M. Guendouzi
10M. Zaccagni
11V. Castellanos
22M. Cancellieri
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Como
Absences are shown before kick-off
Lazio
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Como+1.1 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Lazio-1.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Como · Home
No home games yet this season.
Lazio · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Como wins1 draws1 Lazio wins
Goals per game1.00 – 3.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 10 Jan 2025Lazio1–1Como
- 31 Oct 2024Como1–5Lazio
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Como | Lazio | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 2.57 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 53% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
| Como | Lazio | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 2.57 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 53% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Como | Lazio | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | — | |
| Corners conceded | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 7.00 |
| Over 8.5 | — | — | |
| Over 9.5 | — | — | |
| Over 10.5 | — | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | — | — | |
| Opponent cards | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Over 4.5 | — | — | |
| Como | Lazio | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.33 | 7.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.78 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 8.11 | 11.10 | 7.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 3.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 3.20 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 6.40 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Gianluca Manganiello Italy · 47 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.49league 3.75
Red cards0.17league 0.25
Cards 5+32%league 50%
Fouls23.8league 28.0
Penalties0.23league 0.00
Home wins40%league 25%
Como2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 4.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W23 Feb 25H · Napoli2–11
- L14 Jan 25H · AC Milan1–21
Lazio6 with this referee
Record5-0-1
Cards · opp.1.2 · 1.8
Pens for · against3 · 0
- W2 Mar 25A · AC Milan2–11
- W3 Feb 25A · Cagliari2–10
- W21 Dec 24A · Lecce2–11
- L30 Oct 22H · Salernitana1–33
- W10 Apr 22A · Genoa4–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
ComoLazioComo10 games · scored 15 · conceded 8
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
6
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
4
76-90
Lazio10 games · scored 13 · conceded 10
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
6
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
