Como
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Como31.9%fair odds 3.13
Draw27.8%fair odds 3.60
Lazio40.3%fair odds 2.48
Expected goals1.20 – 1.37total 2.57
Likeliest score1–113.2%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Lazio
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Como ↓ · Lazio → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.9 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 13.2 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.5 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Como goals, columns Lazio goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.2%7.55
- 0–19.9%10.14
- 1–28.6%11.58
- 1–08.5%11.77
- 0–08.3%12.00
- 2–17.5%13.30
- 0–27.2%13.84
- 2–05.5%18.26
- 2–25.2%19.37
- 1–34.0%25.30
Winning margin
4.4%
Como by 3+
fair 22.79
9.2%
Como by 2
fair 10.92
18.4%
Como by 1
fair 5.44
27.8%
Draw
fair 3.60
21.2%
Lazio by 1
fair 4.71
12.1%
Lazio by 2
fair 8.27
7.0%
Lazio by 3+
fair 14.31
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
18%1
26%2
22%3
14%4
12%5+
Como goals
30%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
3%4+
Lazio goals
25%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Como win | 31.9% | 32.2% | -0.2 pp |
| Draw | 27.8% | 27.0% | +0.8 pp |
| Lazio win | 40.3% | 40.8% | -0.6 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 47.4% | 50.6% | -3.3 pp |
| Both teams score | 52.7% | 55.3% | -2.5 pp |
| Expected goals Como | 1.20 | 1.26 | -0.06 |
| Expected goals Lazio | 1.37 | 1.44 | -0.07 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Como win31.9%3.13
- Draw27.8%3.60
- Lazio win40.3%2.48
- Double chance Como or draw59.7%1.67
- Double chance Como or Lazio72.2%1.38
- Double chance Lazio or draw68.1%1.47
- Draw no bet Como44.2%2.26
- Draw no bet Lazio55.8%1.79
Goals
- Over 0.591.7%1.09
- Over 1.573.3%1.36
- Over 2.547.4%2.11
- Over 3.525.7%3.89
- Over 4.511.8%8.47
- Under 1.526.7%3.75
- Under 2.552.6%1.90
- Under 3.574.3%1.35
Both teams to score
- Yes52.7%1.90
- No47.3%2.12
- Yes and over 2.539.5%2.53
- Como win and yes14.9%6.70
- Draw and yes19.5%5.14
- Lazio win and yes18.4%5.45
Team goals
- Como over 0.569.7%1.43
- Como over 1.533.6%2.98
- Como over 2.511.9%8.37
- Lazio over 0.574.7%1.34
- Lazio over 1.539.9%2.51
- Lazio over 2.516.0%6.25
- Como clean sheet25.3%3.95
- Lazio clean sheet30.3%3.30
- Como win to nil17.0%5.88
- Lazio win to nil21.9%4.56
Handicap
- Como −1.513.5%7.38
- Como −2.54.4%22.79
- Lazio +1.586.5%1.16
- Lazio +2.595.6%1.05
- Lazio −1.519.1%5.24
- Como +1.580.9%1.24
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Serie A 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored4
Favourite won50.0%
Avg chance given to result37.6%
1X2 Brier0.704
Over 2.5 called right75.0%
BTTS called right50.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50–60% | 2 | 51.7% | 50.0% |
| 60–70% | 1 | 62.6% | 100.0% |
| 70–80% | 1 | 74.6% | 0.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 0 of 4 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | — | — |
| Avg chance given to result | — | — |
| Favourite won | — | — |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off.
No verified pre-match bookmaker odds are available for comparison yet.
Latest results
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 4 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.