Como
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Como were clear favourites.
Como were the stronger side on L90 Strength (62 vs 16). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Como. Como had 6.8 days of rest, Pisa 6.9 and had to travel 256 km.
Away travel256 kmRest days6.8 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Como76%
Draw17%
Pisa7%
Como75%
Draw16%
Pisa8%
Como75%
Draw18%
Pisa8%
Como70%
Draw20%
Pisa10%
Como77%
Draw16%
Pisa7%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 39%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Como)
No weather data yet
RefereeLuca Pairetto
- Cards per match 4.8
- Penalties per match 0.42
- Matches 71
Team strength
Como
Pisa
62
L90 StrengthIn forecast
16
65
Current StrengthIn forecast
12
72
AttackIn forecast
15
67
DefenceIn forecast
21
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisPisa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ComoPisa
1.66
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.79
0.76
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.69
1.52
xGVia Att/Def
1.00
0.86
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.43
+0.14
Goals minus xGContext
-0.21
76%
Scored inContext
48%
45%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
14.07
ShotsContext
9.72
4.93
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.38
35%
On target shareContext
29%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.42
63%
Box shareContext
70%
12%
ConversionContext
8%
1.50
OffsidesContext
1.95
8.86
Shots allowedContext
14.83
3.36
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.54
2.83
BlocksContext
4.22
2.62
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.32
74%
Save rateContext
68%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
523
PassesContext
312
456
Accurate passesContext
238
87%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.73
13.52
FoulsContext
12.97
12.07
Fouls sufferedContext
11.59
2.14
Yellow cardsContext
2.07
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.10
2.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.10
1.95
xGVia Att/Def
0.93
0.71
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.65
+0.15
Goals minus xGContext
+0.07
90%
Scored inContext
60%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
15.20
ShotsContext
9.60
5.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.22
36%
On target shareContext
40%
10.33
Shots in the boxContext
7.10
66%
Box shareContext
71%
14%
ConversionContext
10%
1.50
OffsidesContext
2.38
6.70
Shots allowedContext
14.00
2.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.44
1.88
BlocksContext
4.00
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
69%
Save rateContext
60%
63%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
576
PassesContext
326
512
Accurate passesContext
249
89%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.73
12.00
FoulsContext
13.50
11.90
Fouls sufferedContext
10.30
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Como
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Pisa
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel256 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Como |
Pisa |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.8Serie A 2025-2026, 15 Mar | 6.9Serie A 2025-2026, 15 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 256 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 15 | 14.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Como
Confirmed XI
1J. Butez(G)
18Alberto Moreno
2M. Kempf
34Diego Carlos
77I. Van der Brempt
33L. da Cunha
23M. Perrone
17Jesús Rodríguez
10N. Paz
38Assane Diao
11A. Douvikas
Pisa
Confirmed XI
12Nícolas(G)
5S. Canestrelli
39Raúl Albiol
4A. Caracciolo
3S. Angori
14E. Akinsanmiro
8M. Højholt
35Felipe Loyola
7M. Léris
10M. Tramoni
32S. Moreo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Como
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Pisa
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.08 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Como+1.5 pp
- Draw-0.9 pp
- Pisa-0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Como · Home
1.93points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-5-2
- Scored
- 1.73
- Conceded
- 0.73
Pisa · Away
0.57points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-8-6
- Scored
- 1.14
- Conceded
- 2.21
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Como | Pisa |
|---|---|---|
| AS Roma | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| Cagliari | W 2–1 AD 0–0 H | W 3–1 HD 2–2 A |
| Lecce | W 3–1 HW 3–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| Juventus | W 2–0 AW 2–0 H | L 0–4 AL 0–2 H |
| AC Milan | D 1–1 AL 1–3 H | L 1–2 HD 2–2 A |
| Fiorentina | L 1–2 HW 2–1 A | L 0–1 AD 0–0 H |
| Atalanta | D 0–0 HD 1–1 A | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Torino | W 6–0 HW 5–1 A | D 2–2 A |
| Lazio | W 3–0 AW 2–0 H | D 0–0 H |
| Bologna | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A | L 0–1 HL 0–4 A |
| Udinese | W 1–0 H | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Inter | L 0–4 A | L 2–6 AL 0–2 H |
| Sassuolo | W 2–0 H | L 1–3 HD 2–2 A |
| Napoli | D 0–0 A | L 2–3 A |
| Verona | W 3–1 H | D 0–0 AD 0–0 H |
| Parma | D 0–0 A | L 0–1 H |
| Cremonese | D 1–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Genoa | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 51 of 84 · 1.82 per game | 18 of 84 · 0.64 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
1 Como wins0 draws0 Pisa wins
Goals per game3.00 – 0.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 0%
- 6 Jan 2026Pisa0–3Como
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Como | Pisa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.66 | 0.79 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.76 | 1.69 | |
| Match goals | 2.41 | 2.48 | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 76% | 62% | |
| Over 2.5 | 45% | 45% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 21% | 38% | |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 45% | 39% |
| Clean sheets | 45% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 24% | 52% | |
| Games | 29 | 29 |
| Como | Pisa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.10 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 2.10 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.10 | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 60% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 39% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Como | Pisa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.96 | 3.79 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.04 | 4.96 | |
| Match total | 7.00 | 8.75 | 8.74 |
| Over 8.5 | 23% 6/26 | 50% 14/28 | |
| Over 9.5 | 15% 4/26 | 43% 12/28 | |
| Over 10.5 | 12% 3/26 | 32% 9/28 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.24 | 2.17 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.21 | 1.86 | |
| Match total | 4.45 | 4.03 | 3.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 69% 20/29 | 66% 19/29 | |
| Over 4.5 | 48% 14/29 | 38% 11/29 | |
| Como | Pisa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.30 | 4.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.40 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 6.70 | 8.80 | 8.74 |
| Over 8.5 | 10% 1/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 10% 1/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 4.50 | 3.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Luca Pairetto 71 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.55league 3.76
Red cards0.27league 0.19
Cards 5+54%league 36%
Fouls25.7league 25.2
Penalties0.42league 0.31
Home wins37%league 39%
Como5 with this referee
Record1-1-3
Cards · opp.3.4 · 3.2
Pens for · against2 · 2
Reds2
- D1 Feb 26H · Atalanta0–04
- W6 Jan 26A · Pisa3–02
- L2 Mar 25A · AS Roma1–27
- L25 Jan 25H · Atalanta1–22
- L31 Oct 24H · Lazio1–52
Pisa1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 1
- L6 Jan 26H · Como0–32
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Como28 games · scored 46 · conceded 21
9
4
0-15
6
2
16-30
5
2
31-45
6
6
46-60
9
3
61-75
11
4
76-90
Pisa29 games · scored 23 · conceded 49
5
5
0-15
3
3
16-30
2
12
31-45
5
6
46-60
3
9
61-75
5
14
76-90
Como10 games · scored 21 · conceded 9
5
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
3
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
1
76-90
Pisa10 games · scored 10 · conceded 21
3
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
6
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
1
7
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
