Como
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Como were slight favourites.
Como were the stronger side on L90 Strength (51 vs 26). Como usually keep the ball (61% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Como had 4.1 days of rest, Sassuolo 4 and had to travel 173 km.
Away travel173 kmRest days4.1 · 4Matches / 14d1 · 1
Como59%
Draw24%
Sassuolo17%
Como60%
Draw23%
Sassuolo17%
Como59%
Draw24%
Sassuolo17%
Como52%
Draw26%
Sassuolo22%
Como60%
Draw23%
Sassuolo17%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Como)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyMatteo Marchetti
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 45
Team strength
Como
Sassuolo
51
L90 StrengthIn forecast
26
65
Current StrengthIn forecast
32
72
AttackIn forecast
41
67
DefenceIn forecast
32
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSassuolo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ComoSassuolo
1.42
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.33
0.58
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.17
1.31
xGVia Att/Def
1.06
0.92
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.31
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.27
67%
Scored inContext
75%
42%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
13.33
ShotsContext
10.83
4.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.83
35%
On target shareContext
35%
7.83
Shots in the boxContext
6.75
58%
Box shareContext
62%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
1.43
OffsidesContext
2.10
10.33
Shots allowedContext
13.17
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.42
3.40
BlocksContext
3.17
2.91
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.45
78%
Save rateContext
73%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
495
PassesContext
389
427
Accurate passesContext
319
86%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.78
15.00
FoulsContext
12.75
13.17
Fouls sufferedContext
14.17
2.25
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.17
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
0.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.37
xGVia Att/Def
1.12
0.99
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.12
+0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.28
70%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
12.90
ShotsContext
11.40
4.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
38%
On target shareContext
33%
7.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.20
57%
Box shareContext
64%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
1.43
OffsidesContext
2.11
10.50
Shots allowedContext
13.40
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
3.25
BlocksContext
3.00
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.67
79%
Save rateContext
79%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
496
PassesContext
382
427
Accurate passesContext
310
86%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.83
14.80
FoulsContext
12.00
13.50
Fouls sufferedContext
14.20
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Como
Rest4.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km273 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Sassuolo
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel173 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Como |
Sassuolo |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.1Serie A 2025-2026, 24 Nov | 4Serie A 2025-2026, 24 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 173 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 273 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.9 | 7.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Como
Confirmed XI
1J. Butez(G)
18Alberto Moreno
34Diego Carlos
14Jacobo Ramón
31M. Vojvoda
6M. Caqueret
23M. Perrone
17Jesús Rodríguez
10N. Paz
42J. Addai
11A. Douvikas
Sassuolo
Confirmed XI
49A. Murić(G)
3J. Doig
80T. Muharemović
21J. Idzes
6S. Walukiewicz
42K. Thorstvedt
18N. Matić
90I. Koné
45A. Laurienté
99A. Pinamonti
10D. Berardi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Como
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Sassuolo
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Como-0.1 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Sassuolo+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Como · Home
2.00points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-0
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 0.50
Sassuolo · Away
1.67points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-2
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 7 this season
| Opponent | Como | Sassuolo |
|---|---|---|
| Cagliari | D 0–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Napoli | D 0–0 A | L 0–2 H |
| Verona | W 3–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Atalanta | D 1–1 A | W 3–0 A |
| Cremonese | D 1–1 H | L 2–3 A |
| Genoa | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| Lazio | W 2–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Points | 11 of 21 · 1.57 per game | 12 of 21 · 1.71 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Como | Sassuolo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.42 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.58 | 1.17 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.50 | 2.71 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 25% | 58% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 42% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 25% | |
| Games | 12 | 12 |
| Como | Sassuolo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.60 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.10 | 2.30 | 2.71 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 60% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Como | Sassuolo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.44 | 3.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.44 | 4.75 | |
| Match total | 6.88 | 8.00 | 8.79 |
| Over 8.5 | 22% 2/9 | 58% 7/12 | |
| Over 9.5 | 11% 1/9 | 42% 5/12 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 8% 1/12 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.42 | 2.58 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.08 | 2.17 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 4.75 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 9/12 | 75% 9/12 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 6/12 | 33% 4/12 | |
| Como | Sassuolo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.38 | 3.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.00 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 6.38 | 8.40 | 8.79 |
| Over 8.5 | 13% 1/8 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/8 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/8 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 4.90 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Matteo Marchetti Italy · 45 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.93league 3.89
Red cards0.16league 0.13
Cards 5+42%league 39%
Fouls25.5league 25.9
Penalties0.24league 0.32
Home wins42%league 36%
Como2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.3.5 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds2
- L15 Mar 25A · AC Milan1–24
- L24 Nov 24H · Fiorentina0–23
Sassuolo3 with this referee
Record1-0-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.7
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds2
- W4 May 24H · Inter1–01
- L20 Aug 23H · Atalanta0–20
- L2 Jun 23H · Fiorentina1–35
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Como11 games · scored 15 · conceded 6
3
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
1
76-90
Sassuolo12 games · scored 16 · conceded 14
3
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
6
1
61-75
3
4
76-90
Como9 games · scored 13 · conceded 5
3
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
1
76-90
Sassuolo10 games · scored 14 · conceded 9
3
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
31-45
3
1
46-60
4
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
