Como
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Como were clear favourites.
Como were the stronger side on L90 Strength (46 vs 22). Como usually keep the ball (57% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Como had 4.2 days of rest, Verona 3.1 and had to travel 154 km.
Away travel154 kmRest days4.2 · 3.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Como60%
Draw24%
Verona16%
Como60%
Draw23%
Verona17%
Como60%
Draw24%
Verona16%
Como53%
Draw26%
Verona21%
Como61%
Draw22%
Verona16%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Como)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyMatteo Marcenaro
- Cards per match 5.2
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 39
Team strength
Como
Verona
46
L90 StrengthIn forecast
22
65
Current StrengthIn forecast
16
72
AttackIn forecast
15
67
DefenceIn forecast
29
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisVerona
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ComoVerona
1.13
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.50
0.63
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.38
1.21
xGVia Att/Def
1.20
0.89
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.10
-0.08
Goals minus xGContext
-0.70
75%
Scored inContext
38%
38%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
13.25
ShotsContext
13.38
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
34%
On target shareContext
37%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.63
59%
Box shareContext
56%
9%
ConversionContext
4%
1.75
OffsidesContext
1.86
10.63
Shots allowedContext
10.63
2.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.86
4.29
BlocksContext
3.25
2.14
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.57
71%
Save rateContext
67%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
468
PassesContext
321
401
Accurate passesContext
238
86%
Pass accuracyContext
74%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.65
15.38
FoulsContext
16.38
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
9.13
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.25
0.25
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.17
xGVia Att/Def
1.19
1.00
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.07
-0.17
Goals minus xGContext
-0.49
70%
Scored inContext
50%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.70
ShotsContext
12.70
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
33%
On target shareContext
35%
8.10
Shots in the boxContext
7.40
58%
Box shareContext
57%
7%
ConversionContext
6%
1.80
OffsidesContext
1.67
11.10
Shots allowedContext
11.20
3.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.11
4.00
BlocksContext
3.20
2.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.89
68%
Save rateContext
70%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
38%
473
PassesContext
301
407
Accurate passesContext
217
86%
Pass accuracyContext
72%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.71
14.30
FoulsContext
17.30
12.60
Fouls sufferedContext
9.30
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.30
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Como
Rest4.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km297 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Verona
Rest3.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel154 km396 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Como |
Verona |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 8 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.2Serie A 2025-2026, 25 Oct | 3.1Serie A 2025-2026, 26 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 154 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 297 km | 396 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3 | 3.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Como
Confirmed XI
1J. Butez(G)
3Álex Valle
34Diego Carlos
14Jacobo Ramón
27S. Posch
6M. Caqueret
33L. da Cunha
38Assane Diao
10N. Paz
19N. Kühn
11A. Douvikas
Verona
Confirmed XI
1L. Montipò(G)
6N. Valentini
15V. Nelsson
37A. Bella-Kotchap
3M. Frese
24A. Bernede
63R. Gagliardini
8S. Serdar
7R. Belghali
16G. Orban
17Giovane
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Como
Absences are shown before kick-off
Verona
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Como+0.9 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Verona-0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Como · Home
2.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-0
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 0.50
Verona · Away
0.50points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-2
- Scored
- 0.25
- Conceded
- 1.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Como | Verona |
|---|---|---|
| Juventus | W 2–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Cremonese | D 1–1 H | D 0–0 H |
| Lazio | W 2–0 H | L 0–4 A |
| Points | 7 of 9 · 2.33 per game | 2 of 9 · 0.67 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Como wins1 draws0 Verona wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 18 May 2025Verona1–1Como
- 29 Sep 2024Como3–2Verona
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Como | Verona | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.13 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.63 | 1.38 | |
| Match goals | 1.75 | 1.88 | 2.65 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 63% | |
| Over 2.5 | 13% | 25% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 38% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 38% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 63% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Como | Verona | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.13 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.63 | 1.38 | |
| Match goals | 1.75 | 1.88 | 2.65 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 63% | |
| Over 2.5 | 13% | 25% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 38% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 38% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 63% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Como | Verona | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.67 | 3.88 | |
| Match total | 7.67 | 7.88 | 9.08 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 2/6 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 17% 1/6 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 17% 1/6 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.75 | 2.25 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.13 | 2.38 | |
| Match total | 4.88 | 4.63 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 6/8 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 4/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Como | Verona | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.75 | 3.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.88 | 4.90 | |
| Match total | 7.63 | 8.70 | 9.08 |
| Over 8.5 | 38% 3/8 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 2/8 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 13% 1/8 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 4.90 | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Matteo Marcenaro Italy · 39 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.85league 3.90
Red cards0.36league 0.12
Cards 5+64%league 38%
Fouls23.4league 25.7
Penalties0.23league 0.28
Home wins49%league 37%
Como2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W13 Apr 25H · Torino1–01
- L19 Aug 24A · Juventus0–34
Verona4 with this referee
Record1-3-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W3 Nov 24H · AS Roma3–23
- D21 Aug 22A · Bologna1–13
- D20 Mar 22A · Empoli1–13
- D30 Nov 21H · Cagliari0–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Como7 games · scored 7 · conceded 4
2
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Verona8 games · scored 4 · conceded 11
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
76-90
Como9 games · scored 8 · conceded 7
2
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
1
76-90
Verona10 games · scored 7 · conceded 13
1
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
