Cremonese
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Atalanta were clear favourites.
Atalanta were the stronger side on L90 Strength (70 vs 19). Cremonese had 5 days of rest, Atalanta 6.1 and had to travel 68 km.
Away travel68 kmRest days5 · 6.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Cremonese15%
Draw23%
Atalanta63%
Cremonese15%
Draw22%
Atalanta63%
Cremonese15%
Draw23%
Atalanta62%
Cremonese11%
Draw20%
Atalanta70%
Cremonese15%
Draw21%
Atalanta64%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Cremona)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyAlberto Ruben Arena
- Cards per match 2.8
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 4
Team strength
Cremonese
Atalanta
19
L90 StrengthIn forecast
70
20
Current StrengthIn forecast
59
16
AttackIn forecast
48
30
DefenceIn forecast
45
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAtalanta
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
CremoneseAtalanta
1.14
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.57
1.29
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.71
0.84
xGVia Att/Def
1.56
1.47
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.88
+0.30
Goals minus xGContext
+0.01
71%
Scored inContext
86%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
6.29
ShotsContext
14.71
2.86
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.86
46%
On target shareContext
33%
3.83
Shots in the boxContext
9.86
56%
Box shareContext
68%
18%
ConversionContext
11%
2.50
OffsidesContext
3.00
16.14
Shots allowedContext
11.29
5.43
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
4.29
BlocksContext
3.29
4.83
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.43
78%
Save rateContext
86%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
365
PassesContext
482
290
Accurate passesContext
412
80%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.71
Team ratingContext
7.02
12.14
FoulsContext
10.29
12.71
Fouls sufferedContext
9.29
2.43
Yellow cardsContext
1.71
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.84
xGVia Att/Def
1.59
1.47
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.11
+0.46
Goals minus xGContext
-0.29
80%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
8.00
ShotsContext
15.10
3.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
39%
On target shareContext
29%
5.00
Shots in the boxContext
9.90
57%
Box shareContext
66%
16%
ConversionContext
9%
2.13
OffsidesContext
3.17
15.50
Shots allowedContext
12.30
5.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
3.60
BlocksContext
3.20
4.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.70
69%
Save rateContext
80%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
376
PassesContext
455
303
Accurate passesContext
384
81%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.70
Team ratingContext
6.93
11.50
FoulsContext
9.90
12.90
Fouls sufferedContext
9.50
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Cremonese
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Atalanta
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel68 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Cremonese |
Atalanta |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5Serie A 2025-2026, 20 Oct | 6.1Serie A 2025-2026, 19 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 68 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4 | 3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Cremonese
Confirmed XI
16M. Silvestri(G)
24F. Terracciano
30M. Faye
6F. Baschirotto
27J. Vandeputte
22R. Floriani Mussolini
32M. Payero
7A. Zerbin
4T. Barbieri
99A. Sanabria
10J. Vardy
Atalanta
Confirmed XI
29M. Carnesecchi(G)
59N. Zalewski
4I. Hien
19B. Djimsiti
16R. Bellanova
15M. de Roon
8M. Pašalić
13Éderson
11A. Lookman
90N. Krstović
17C. De Ketelaere
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Cremonese
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Atalanta
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Cremonese-0.2 pp
- Draw-0.6 pp
- Atalanta+0.8 pp
Home / Away this season
Cremonese · Home
1.67points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-0
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.00
Atalanta · Away
1.67points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-0
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 0.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Cremonese | Atalanta |
|---|---|---|
| Como | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Parma | D 0–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 2 of 6 · 1.00 per game | 2 of 6 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Cremonese wins1 draws1 Atalanta wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 1 Apr 2023Cremonese1–3Atalanta
- 11 Sep 2022Atalanta1–1Cremonese
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Cremonese | Atalanta | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.14 | 1.57 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.29 | 0.71 | |
| Match goals | 2.43 | 2.29 | 2.74 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 29% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 71% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 14% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Cremonese | Atalanta | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.14 | 1.57 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.29 | 0.71 | |
| Match goals | 2.43 | 2.29 | 2.74 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 29% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 71% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 14% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Cremonese | Atalanta | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.71 | 6.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.14 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 8.85 | 10.33 | 9.03 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 4/7 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 29% 2/7 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 14% 1/7 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.43 | 1.86 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.71 | 0.71 | |
| Match total | 4.14 | 2.57 | 3.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 4/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 3/7 | 0% 0/7 | |
| Cremonese | Atalanta | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.90 | 5.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.20 | 3.78 | |
| Match total | 9.10 | 9.56 | 9.03 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 0.70 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 2.60 | 3.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Alberto Ruben Arena Italy · 4 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.75league 3.77
Red cards0.00league 0.12
Cards 5+0%league 36%
Fouls25.0league 25.9
Penalties0.00league 0.27
Home wins25%league 38%
Cremonese1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D15 Sep 25A · Verona0–01
Atalanta1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D24 Aug 25H · Pisa1–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Cremonese7 games · scored 8 · conceded 9
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
76-90
Atalanta7 games · scored 11 · conceded 5
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
4
31-45
2
46-60
2
61-75
1
3
76-90
Cremonese10 games · scored 13 · conceded 17
1
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
5
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
4
2
76-90
Atalanta10 games · scored 13 · conceded 10
1
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
4
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
